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Same Times journalist (Alex Ralph) the trotted out the previous article about the DHSC dispute that was somewhat less than positive and light on facts.
This time he appears to be taking a different perspective.
Scatter gun journalism.
Why be careful? As though anything any of us write on here has any effect on the company or it's SP in any way shape or form.
As unpalatable as it may seem, the suggestion of asset strip and takeover is as realitic an option as many of the other fantasies posted on this board.
Right now this just feels like death by a thousand cuts. I've never encountered such a level of ambivalence by a BOD in any company I've ever invested in.
The oddity of this whole thing is the cash pile they're sitting on, it's like watching a massive Euromillions lottery winner sat staring at a massive pile of cash not sure what to do with it as they've never actually been in that position before.
Get some financial advice! (ie A decent CEO with some sort of real world plan).
Question then re M&A. As that seems to be the way this thread has evolved and a reasonable number of people seem to consider it the way out of the current stasis.
Is it normal that a company would pass all due dilligence (the company buying or the company selling) when there is a dispute/pending court case in progress, the outcome of which is absolute on the company still remaining in business?
Can due dilligence even take place whilst a dispute/pending court case is in place and the particulars of that case are ringfenced by a non disclosure agreement?
Thoughts please on both the above points.
Personally I feel that it's irrelevant that the cash isn't ringfenced, I feel there are real legal barriers stopping any potential M&A hence the questions above.
So if anyone has a semblance of factual knowledge in this area I'm all ears. Genuinely, I'm all ears as I just feel like we're stumbling around in the dark here throwing out conjecture and opinion as though it were fact.
I'd be interested if the company even responded to a letter from PI100.
None of us have any real grasp of what this dispute is about, the nitty gritty, the details. What exactly is being alledged. None of us. Yet it seems fair game to post newspaper articles about it depsite there being a non disclosure agreement.
Despite claims of "strong grounds" to enforce it's contract by NCYT, here we are still.
"The market" seems to think the longer this drags on, the less a favourable outcome looks likely. It's not a suprise really considering the near absolute silence about the herd of elephants circulating around the room.
A bad outcome the business is trading insolvent, a good outcome the sky's the limit. The mcap currently sits about halfway between those two outcomes. Half the cash position with a value of zero for anything else, stock, IP...anything.
Absolutely nothing else matters now until this dispute is tidied up, nothing. It casts a shadow so large over the entire business that NCYT can do nothing other than tread water until the dispute is settled.
There's a difference between deramping and being a dissillusioned holder fed up with the apparent rudderless ship this company appears to have become, now even more so that the current Captain has walked the plank.
It's the eternal/fanatical optimists I find more irritating.
I'll be more optimistic when I see some decent contracts/sales, some direction, a resolution or at least apparent movement towards a resolution of the DHSC dispute. Some signs of professional marketing, in fact some signs of professionalism full stop.
What a mistake it was on my part investing here, but at so far down there's little point selling what's left. It may as well stay invested for the end game, whatever that may be. Fortunately I didn't invest more than I could afford to lose, that still doesn't stop it stinging though.
This will be my last venture onto AIM. It'll be sensible boring stuff from now on.
I keep reading a comment/comments on here that the market/BOD "what Private Investors out".
Why? and on what grounds do you believe this is really a goal of said market/BOD?
What is the logic behind this statement?
This is a genuine question BTW aimed at understanding who gains from this scenario and in what way?
I think they will have had supply chains in place with approved product. That would hve been 6 months or so in advance of requirement, it simply how institutions of this nature operate.
The NCYT product wouldn't even have been on the radar until approval, now it's approved they can order and we can supply assuming we have stock.
I think we've missed the boat for this winter.
I'd be delighted to be wrong, sadly I don't think I am.
It's the 27th October today. If healthcare institutions are buying product for this winter at this time of year they haven't been doing their job properly. They should already be contracted, delivered and in stock.
I fear the CTDA approval is to late for this winter. Lets hope they get it on the list for winter 2023.
Whilst you're absolutely correct that the test itself is multi respiratory, you have to admit the company is not doing itself any favours by headlining the RNS
"UK Approval of genesig® SARS-CoV-2 Winterplex® 3G"
It reads like a covid test that also does some other things. So unless you're really interested in the detail of this company, a quick scan of the RNS and most people will be thinking "Oh they've got another covid test approved, covid isn't a thing any more"
I just see the can continually being kicked down the road until ncyt are somehow forced to address it.
There seems to be very little in the way of conviction in anything associated with this company. I'm struggling to remember any company in which I've had money invested that appears to be so completely ambivalent.
It would now be an appropriate time for the company to issue an RNS pointing out the important omissions in the Times article with regard to CTDA approval. Therefore not commenting directly on the dispute, but making the full facts clearer.
I test positive for covid on Saturday, first time I've had it, I'm triple jabbed.
Really ill for about 18 hours but now just feels like a cold.
The reality is no one really cares any more, isolate for 5 days then carry on as normal.......even if you still test positive just carry on.
Forget covid revenue in any way, shape or form.
Even if something monumental occurred and covid surged massively again. Do you really think they'll be sourcing products from a company with which they have an ongoing dispute. A company that for all direction it appears to be getting at the moment may as well be run by any of the clueless aspiring wannabes for Alan Sugars "the apprentice".
What a shambles. What a golden opportunity being squandered.
It's obvious isn't it?
Waiting for the DHSC case to resolve, however long that may take.
I've written this off now at full value, the money is lost aready in my mind, I'm just letting it sit there and in years to come whatever happens, happens.
If however, Novacyt had to pay the full value of the claim in the period up to and including September 2023, then the Group would not have sufficient funds to settle the liability without agreeing a payment plan or raising additional cash. As a result of this, a material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt on the Group's ability as a going concern.
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The above statement sums up how "the market" currently views NCYT.
Effectively everything the company is doing going forward is irrelevant until the DHSC situation is resolved as with an adverse judgement the company could effectively be trading insolvent.
It explains the current mcap and highlights the binary nature of being a shareholder here now.
Agreed, it tells you all you need to know about the mindset of upper management.
Effectively they did the business equivalent of win the lottery when covid hit. Rather than move forward with a massive capital windfall they just decided to sit back and sip martinis until the music stops....
Then the DHSC dispute hit.
What an utter shambles.
Wilson, to put things into perspective, was chatting to the Co next door to mine, who has an annual turnover of aprox 7.5 mil, making around 400k net profit and the banks are offering him money to expand....
Nova, have around 99 MILLION in the bank, irrespective of Dhsc final outcome?
It is in THEIR account, they have done 4 mil in sales, so far and with a POTENTIAL favorable outcome, to said dispute, would have another 81 MILLION or more?
NO DEBT / Changing direction going favorably / Possible further revenue's as winter sets in and indeed in other avenues? / No need to Borrow / Not perfect due to waiting for some level headed judge to hold Dhsc to account and compensate Nova... but it is far from over yet?
Dyor / imo / #noneedtohidebehindsofayet :) #holdheldholding and waiting still
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Most of the time your almost fanatical positive outlook of this company is just irritating. However I don't disagree with what you've written above.
My concern is the almost complete lack of ability that the current BOD have to take this sitatution forward in a positive manner, the almost complete lack of ability they have in communcating with the either the shareholders or market in a meaningful or encouraging way.
That's ignoring the DHSC elephant that's constantly in the room.
Is there a court case? A hearing date?
Do we genuinely expect this to reach a point where people stand up in a court of law or do we expect red tape and procedure to drag this on indefinitely until some sort of compromise/agreement is bashed out that saves face?
What happed to the Juducal Review on the Abingdon case? We've still not even had findings from that published yet despite them saying it would be done so by "summer". That case has been heard.
I think we've known from day one this is all political rather than a genuine product issue. The problem with the political ones is they can really be dragged out, expecially when you have zero leverage against them.
Starting to look like a lifestyle company.
£90m+ sat in the bank, just keep treading water indefinitely, Keep drawing your fat salaries with double digit % increases each year as you're performing so well.
Why would you bother if you were in their position, they don't need to do anything......easy life thanks very much.
The only hope of a spike now is a positive outcome of the DHSC case. Any guesses on the timeframe of that?