Member Info for 2017andonwards

I think Eden could be, if a larger player is of a mind to do so. 1) The Eastman Chemicals deal will be, according to the RNS http://bit.ly/2mNY12q delivered by Eastman into the largest markets globally for Nematicides and will cover in total 29 countries. However, income for this deal won't occur until 2019, the market size annually is $550 million and Eastman is a leading supplier to this market 2) The Sumi-Agro deal http://bit.ly/2mACIEx offers up an annual botryticides market of $350 million. Sumitomo http://bit.ly/2mTAooh now has access to 50% of the worlds wine production with 3AEY via the wine countries of Italy, Spain and France http://bit.ly/2lRlwXe 3) From 2017, Eden has moved to a new distribution sales model http://bit.ly/2i9n6FP whereby they will sell direct and reap (indicative) net income of 35% of wholesale value which indicatively is 280% higher than the royalty model per litre http://www.edenresearch.com/archives/presentation/Eden_AGM_2016.pdf SLIDE 11 4) Eden has indicated that it's product could potentially penetrate 20% of the Botryticides market in which 3AEY is sold (see link in 3) All of this is without Bayer, the number one agro-chemical company in the world who are trialling Eden's products. This is without the lawn, garden and seeds trial supplier(s) (is this Syngenta, the number two agro-chemical company in the world). This is without the patented technology that is Go-E Eden had income last year of £0.4 million So a potential interested party can see that Eden's market capitalisation is just £20 million, currently has very low income, but forecast income will be high (e.g. 35% of the wholesale value of $70 million/20% annual sales penetration) plus, perhaps, a similar percentage in the larger nematicides market. So these two deals alone will likely generate far more than Eden's current market cap. It looks unlikely that Eden could muster enough support to resist any bid when referencing their published shareholder register http://www.edenresearch.com/html/investor/shareholder.asp where they appear to have 25% institutional holdings with the remainder in nominee (private investor) accounts. This doesn't take account of any institutional shareholding below the 3% declaration threshold. So a less motivated or price expectant market would be able to accept a lower bid price on behalf of the Company, in the event of a bid coming in. Eden is a bio-tech company and the P/E multiples will be quite high. So given those numbers above and Eden's exceptionally low cost base, for each £10 million of profit and assuming 184 million shares in issue, this delivers an earnings per share just north of 5 pence. Based on todays share price and I appreciate I am overlapping time and events, but based on this, Eden would be on a P/E of just 2.2 times earnings. I hope when Shore Capital delivers an updated Broker note that they and the Company are at pains to point out just how undervalue

I can't see that botrytis forecasts would be useful, as you say, probably as reliable as a weather forecast. In regards to newsflow, you always need momentum to maintain interest, knowledge and to educate. Sporadic news will deliver occasional share price spikes, but not true share price value. True share price value can only be delivered when the 'market' truly understands the proposition and is therefore in a position to understand and invest in value.

It's small beer when there are 184 million shares in issue and of little consequence in my opinion

Regulation is what will support the need for Eden's products in these markets. Combined with performance, they're likely ahead of the game, but as with all things, this advantage rarely lasts forever. They're in a purple patch and they have to capitalise on it. One might argue this is happening already, but shareholders are not yet reaping the benefits. A big calculation for competitor pesticides and herbicides is R and D turnaround and cost. Creating a product is a likely unknown, but cost is. Competitors cannot afford to be out of the market with Lapsing patents. This is where Eden currently has leverage.

Regulation is what will support the need for Eden's products in these markets. Combined with performance, they're likely ahead of the game, but as with all things, this advantage rarely lasts for ever. There in a purple patch and they have to capitalise on it;one might argue this is happening already,but shareholders are not yet reaping the benefits. A big calculation for competitor pesticides and herbicides is R and D turnaround and cost. Creating a product is a likely unknown, but cost is. Competitors cannot afford to be out of the market with Lansing patents. This is where Eden currently has leverage.

Spindok I agree, this share is predictable and it shouldn't be in a fledgling company. Given they have only just entered the territory of selling their product and receiving income, this is why in my mind, it is fledgling. With so many developments, newsflow should be much greater and more detailed. Investors, rightly so, want to know more and better understand Eden. New investors will want Eden brought to their attention through channels and in a delivery that they can understand. The share price will continue, predictably, to spike on various pieces of news and then fall back again unless something material happens.

Thank you johnchucka!!!!

Thank you Manchuria. I'm aware that he has, however, you shouldn't have to pay a membership fee to access information to a listed company. The audience for these shares is far wider than that group and needs to be to lift this share price. Thank you for your response.

When was that note by Michael Walters published? I think he would have been better off (given he was the financial commentator for the Daily Mail in years gone by) finishing the article saying that based on likely forward P/E ratios in the biotech sector that Eden Research looks remarkably cheap and this will no doubt be borne out with the forthcoming research note from house broker, Shore Capital. He might have chosen to further add that with the competitive advantage Eden has over existing chemical pesticides and given how long it would take others to catch up and get regulatory approval, that someone may consider taking a stake in Eden as we move forward. Global companies like Bayer, Sumitomo and Eastman Chemicals will not continue year after year buying product from Eden at increased margins, when it is so critical to their own market without taking a closer look at what a position in Eden would cost them, let alone an outright takeover in order to own outright, Eden's IP. Why didn't he explore that avenue given these major global companies now have new and competitive, approved products? There is easily a case to be had to say that Sumitomo may want global rights to 3AEY and would purchase the same, outright for the wine industry from Eden, Eastman with the Nematicide solution and Bayer for animal healthcare solutions. Effectively, that would be the Company selling itself three times and still doing new product development to satisfy other markets e.g. human healthcare.

What a low note to finish such a bullish article. Unnecessary and wrong in my opinion

Thank you for that. Is there a bit left off?

Please post a copy of the report

A 50% reduction by 2025! If they stick to that then it is just 8 years away. Given it takes 8-10 years to research and develop a new product and get the patent approvals in place then if you're not at the races now, you'll likely have a product coming off patent with no replacement. What do you do? Such actions might downstream, encourage some M and A.

If Sumi-Agro (Sumitomo effectively) is committing themselves to 3AEY in 50% of the wine producing market I would say that is a very good thing

sain@vision said "It does beg the question why hasn't one of the major players in the agri-chemical industry acquired a major stake here if the prospects are so good?" Good observation. What might trigger this? In my opinion 1) Sumitomo via Sipcam Italia, Sipcam Iberia and Sumi-Agro France now has access to 50% of global wine production. Might they be interested in Eden or just the 3AEY business, grapes or more? 2) Eastman Chemicals has effectively tied up the Nematicide market opportunity through the top 29 countries worldwide. Might they be interested in this side of the business? 3) Will Bayer finally contract to Eden? Bayer is the largest Agro-Chemical company in the world, Sumitomo is 9th http://bit.ly/2ge4gb8. Would Bayer take a stake? 4) Slide 7 of last years AGM presentation http://bit.ly/2jp8TUH "Extension of the evaluation agreement in lawn and garden". Is this Syngenta? If so then http://bit.ly/2ksEG4W Confirmation of 8-10 years to develop a product, but a cost of $260 million, that's £212 million If they attributed that time and value to Eden's technology that would be £1.15p a share + any add-ons Syngenta is the second largest Agro-Chemical company in the world One thing is for sure. Any and all of that adds up to a lot more then £25 million which is roughly our market cap. None of those companies can afford to be out of the market by product, whose patent has either expired or been restricted for an 8-10 year period with loss of sales in addition to R and D and associated patent costs and approvals. The last Shore Capital note of the 27th of November 2015 had a fair market value price at the time of 22.5p and a target price of 79p. I imagine given the Eastman deal and the revenues due this year from Spain, Italy, France, Greece, the Baltics and Kenya, will see that 79p target price rise somewhat. The question for me is, when the price does rise to such levels, what will Eden to do keep it there?

Citizenlane I think the share price could multiply many times from here on a number of fronts prior to a full year of revenue. I posted the following on the 8th of January. Add in a compelling update note from Shore Capital and some institutional buying and it could be very good with many, many drivers in play. 1) What is the position with Bayer which was first on trial some while ago. This is a key piece of information to update given who Bayer are and their standing in the Agro-Chemical market 2) When Sumi-Agro France contracts to Eden, as expected and RNS'd, does this give an opportunity to deal with Sumitomo direct, is this even relevant or will Eden deal independently with Sipcam and Sumi-Agro separately? 3) If Bayer becomes a client in addition to Sumitomo (effectively) what is our state of play or strategy with other top ten global pesticide companies? http://www.gmwatch.org/latest-listing/1-test/10560-the-worlds-top-10-pesticide-firms-who-owns-nature 4) What is the anticipated annual revenue from sales to Eastman Chemicals through the top 29 global countries for nematicides? 5) What is the outcome of the successful trials in Australia for Botrytis (2016 AGM presentation, slide 7) 6) Who is the agreement with for the evaluation of lawn and garden and what is the state of play (also slide 7) 7) Slide 20, Eden shows the market sizes in $billions for bio and conventional pesticides as well as animal health care. What percentage is Eden hoping to capture in each sector or a sub-sector therefor through its contracted partners over the next 3-5 years? There has to be an answer to this otherwise this slide is pointless other than to say the market is big 8) Slide 19, Eden spends £12 million on patent protection, yet Syngenta say it costs them $260 million, SOURCE: http://www4.syngenta.com/how-we-do-it/research-and-development/how-we-make-new-products. Slide 21 of the AGM presentation states that many patents have or are about to lose patent protection with very few substitute products available. Given this circumstance and major players are now contracting to Eden, what chance that Eden will receive a bid for the whole company or a bid for a product solution, so for example, someone bids to take 3AEY of their hands? 9) If Eden is susceptible to a bid in either form as stated in 8, what position are Eden in to protect shareholders from an undervalued offer? 10) What are Eden's top 3 specific priorities for 2017 e.g. secure Bayer as a customer, establish 3AEY in the US/Australia, have the share price reflect the true value of the Company There is so much for Eden to explain and share that can easily be done without compromising confidentiality or LSE regulation. Should they choose to do so, this will be very good for existing shareholders, bringing in new shareholders and ensuring their cost of money going forward is most cost effective and representative

spindok "Because Eden is licencing their products to various companies around the globe" That's no longer true, is it?! Eden will be selling their product direct to distributors WEF 2017, as previously RNS'd. Maybe you're saying the same thing in a different way, but this is my understanding.

I don't think the yearly high is the right benchmark to measure the share price. The measure should be the inherent value of business allocated to the share price. If that is not reflected, then the Company and its advisers, where abilities allow, should execute to align that value. That brings faith in the investment made, faith in making a subsequent investment and faith in the Company as opposed to other potential investments on AIM or elsewhere.

GoodCompany said "But the last time everyone thought the news from France was about due the sp went to over 20. Perhaps investors will be more cautious this time until actual sales take-up is known?" I think the consideration now that Eden has a major global, top ten, agro-chemical firm distributing their product to 50% of the global wine producing market (Spain, Italy, France) is 1) What other countries will feel the need to follow suit? 2) Will institutions, those that can buy in a sub £50 million market cap company, now start buying in the open market because of the exceptional circumstances in place (50% market opportunity and EU approval)? 3) What other distributors, globally, will want to participate in wine producing countries, or even fruits, e.g. strawberries? 4) What will Shore Capital say about Eden and the investment opportunity as of today? More importantly, what will Shore Capital's sales actions and success to institutions be given todays RNS? Will they even get on the phone and start selling investment into Eden? 5) What will Eden do to broaden the message of Eden Research Plc, in the private investor community, to bridge the gap between private investor and institutions so that the latter may invest more robustly based on acceptable and a more stable market cap? The share price could fly to new high's, if Eden can effectively self communicate the above to assure the market and educate the market of both its immediate and future potential.

GoodCompany said "This is fantastic news and in a good time before the 2017 growing season for plenty of promotion. I hope there's good take-up of Mavelone in France. This is it - we're off at last!" Eden has said that its model is changing this year to one of supply meaning that payments to Eden should both be larger (as per last years AGM presentation example) and I assume, quicker. 3AEY or Mevalone as it will be known in France, can be used to prevent the onset of or offset Botrytis. I think a key to sales this year in Italy, France and Spain, weather aside, will be whether the sales pitch of the distributors is to sell 3AEY as a preventative measure. If they do, then they will purchase from Eden earlier in the calendar year which will mean a confirmation of success earlier, greater cashflows, and a healthier half year report in terms of profit. Buying as a preventative measure will possibly lead to scales of economy for the farmers and possibly a more efficient operation. Distributors selling as a preventative measure will undoubtedly act as its own great marketing tool in terms of word of mouth, but also start to increase market share rapidly.