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Manro
Interesting - I have been on the sidelines as moving countries end of the week. But my honest view is this:
1) No New to me sounds good - however logging is what happens on every well, no less or no money whether a duster or producer. In short the well log then allows the geologists/drilling engineer and geophysicist to compare the 2D/3D seismic with reality, this in itself is a positive as it helps them to de-risk potential future wells in the area
2) My only slight niggle is if there had been an obvious significant find I think they would have had to announce it straight away. So that leads me to the possibility that there is oil, but at this stage either due to viscosity or other geological issues the precise amount/grade etc is not immediately know. Hence they can not announce anything and need to do more investigation.
3) If I am right about 2) then I would expect an RNS to say yes they have "shows" , "significant shows" of hydocarbons however before confirming the amount they want to bring a test rig on site after moving the rig to white horse.
Just a feel I have - so a good RNS but not the 1000 bagger we would all like. However it may then be followed by much better news (or not) once testing is complete and the analysis has been done.
All as always IMO
Best of luck to everyone.
Thailand next week! Cant be bad!!
Guys
I thought this might be of interest. Comment from the PR group in answer to an e-mail I sent on 13/07/18.
"In relation to drilling newsflow. It is the Company’s policy to announce on spud and then when it comes into possession of price sensitive news, thereafter.
This is the standard policy of communicating while drilling and indeed if the well should be made ‘tight hole’ then a complete blackout on communications in relation to drilling operations is in place anyway.
This is the fashion of UK listed exploration stocks, unlike ASX or TSX listed exploration companies."
I think the bottom line here must be no news cant be all bad.
IMO but to me makes sense.
Mr P what is sure is that US$80 or there about is here to stay for the near future.
Word of warning if you have not picked up on it get rid of any diesel cars you have. Go petrol, LPG, hybrid or electric for choice. ie anything but diesel.
Off topic but worth thinking about.
DYOR
Guys good morning
Look like another day gone - have to admit now nearly in good news only territory.
Not quite but by my reckoning worst were are going to get is confirmed shows of hydrocarbons.
Again as I said yesterday how much and what flow rate , if any is up for grabs.
IMO.
GLA. .
D1nger
As always great post. Am impressed after 3 glasses of wine as well.
Just wondered about the numbers as if you take the depth 6,755.81 meters divided by time to drill of 104.34 days - you get 64.75mtrs/day. However if you use the rate per hour quoted you get 155.52mtrs/day
I suspect based on this that the drilling speed relates to the time they were actually drilling and the rate per hour achieved rather than the overall average.
This being the case for SL you get 51.75 days for drilling which when you add on casing/testing then makes sense at 70 days.
Regardless the record is impressive and as you say if they have MWD system, which may well have been part of the specification requested by PM then there will be little or no delay in announcing a duster or oil shows. Based on the fact we are at day 57 potentially I would guess the likely hood of something being found is high.
The big question is then is it commercial or not?
All as always IMO only.
GLA.
Good morning all
Interesting posts over the weekend. To me there are two things that need to be remembered -
1) The time to drill to TD is one thing be it 50 or 60 days - (I dont think it was ever 70 included to me 20days for testing)
2) The time to test the hole is another likely to be between 3 and 15 days
Why do I say that well as I think I understand it there are two zones that are of particular interest and 3 possible additional areas. This being the case 3 days to test per zone and assuming only one comes in 3 days if however all 5 have shows of hydrocarbons then a minimum of 15 days is likely.
So to me you add 15 to 50 or you add 15 to 60 - the point being the longer we do not hear anything the more likely in my opinion that they are testing due to hydrocarbon shows.
So to me the earliest we would have a "duster RNS" is day 51 through to the latest day 61. But as I said above there are intermediate options/variables that to me point to the longer there is no news the better. The key to me is any time after day 61 is likely to indicate hydrocarbons are present.
I think also you have to remember the history of crying 'wolf" or in this case saying they had hydrocarbon shows , which later proved not to be the case.
So to me MB and PM are going to make damn sure if they say there is xxx million BOE in place that they are correct and not pulling the wool like last time.
As I say all IMO but to me that is the only thing that makes any sense in terms of when an RNS drops. Agreed time may tell that I am speaking rubbish but I dont think so.
GLA interesting few weeks ahead.
Best of luck D1nger, Ham, Bonum, Captain, OJ, Paul, Manro, Maestro, JND, Loz, Ronin, Bucc, Mr P and Mikey - to name but a few!
Guys good morning - just been looking at the geology of SL and saw this article.
Makes one wonder.
There are 43 turbidite fields and discoveries worldwide from which greater than 500 million bbl of oil equivalent are expected to be ultimately recovered Some of the giants have not been appraised, so the current reserves figure is subject to change. (1998 Article)
Let me say that again 43 discoveries with greater than 500MM BOE!!
That number really is stunning when you think of the what SL could unlock. Yes agree it still could be a great fat 0.
However the longer the silence runs the more I think they are testing some segment bit or segments of the hole.
All IMO but lets see.
GLA - D1nger you really should go to bed earlier! best of luck!
Mr Bucks quotes are in the main not wrong.
He said and followed up in his presentation - late Q3 early Q4 for Block XX - still on target
He said 70 day to drill SL and looks to be following that path, might be a bit early, then to follow with WH
He said that the rig contract for block XX would be issued shortly agreed delayed but I dont really see an issue if the contract is in place by mid-Sept
He said the SL drill would mobilise in Q2 it did and spudded 9days into Q3.
Yes agreed things have been delayed but they are happening which is more than you can say for the previous bunch.
He realised he had a major alligator snapping at him and that was the completion of producers from Block XX to be able to transfer it from an exploration licence into production licence and hence has concentrated on getting the funding to allow that.
To be honest I think he has done pretty damn well!
All agreed IMO but please DYOR.
GLA.
Guys
This 20% chance on each drill is I am sorry not correct, regardless of whether you are talking Commercial chance or technical chance.
it is :
Commercial - Edison
SL - 12%
WH - 9%
Fox - 15%
Red Deer - 23%
Gazelle - 38%
Technical - Stockdale
SL - ?
WH - 17%
Fox - ?
Red Deer - ?
Gazelle - 50%
Internal estimates for Block XX July Presentation pack
Gazelle - 50-75%?
Heron - 50-75%?
Antelope - 50-75%
Bottom line is 20% was never as far as I can see mentioned. Not sure where it came from.
All in all for a frontier exploration not bad numbers.
ATB and GLA
Have to admit to agreeing with you Big B. Logic is not with us I think just sentiment on the times PM made promises and did not stick to them.
BUT
When you realize we have virtually a completely new Management team it makes little sense factoring what the previous team did or did not do.
All IMO!
Guys
If you do the numbers there is a good chance PM have finished drilling and are testing in earnest, I think it very unlikely and agree that this is a total no show duster. There were two main areas and three additional areas that PM wanted to verify one way or another, so if you say a minimum of 3 days per test that means potentially 15 days more on top of the drilling period. To me it all lines up with Mikes 50 + 20.
I think as I have said many time patience is required.
All yes IMO but I have a feeling we will get what we need. Will it be 100% probably not. But 3 of 5 or 2 of 5 would do us. It would kick things off nicely and allow us to slide into block XX and Wild Horse.
ATB everyone!