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You miss my point - the wells in block XX are going to happen to given them cash flow. They are using a different rig, different contract and it is close to the processing facilities.
Block IV and V are close on 1200 Kms from any production facilities.. Yes they will truck but the EO will come from Block XX. Yes they will truck from Block IV and V but earliest they will get any will most likely be late 2019/early 2020.
Block XX on the other hand they can start trucking and producing mid-2019 and possibly before.
ATB
Guys
To be clear there are 5 known drills for which we have known RENAV values :
SL - 5.66p/share - Block V
WH - 28.5p/share- Block IV
Fox - 18.9P/share - Block V
Gazelle - 2.2P/share - Block XX
Red Deer - 5.1P/share - block XX
Total - RENAV 42.6P/share
The early production is from Block XX and unlikely to be from block IV or V. Block XX is around 30 kms from the block XIX production facilities.
Trust this helps.- the un-risked value of the share is around 282p/share however this does not include the production costs or the possible farm-in dilution based on net of 418 MMBOE.
What is true is the upside on these numbers is high! Way above the numbers above.
In any case please DYOR and the numbers above come in the main from the Edison Report of PM, it is available online.
ATB and GLA to all I think next week will be interesting.
Mikey - I would agree to a point and yes logistics plays a a part but also if you look at the presentation of June 2018 they are effectively starting in the middle, going west and then coming back and going east for early 2019.
One other point not sure if anyone picked up on it Gazelle in the presentation is showing being drilled from October 2018 not September. Maybe a slip but the words state late Q3 early Q4. To me that is late September early October.
I still think the pressure is on Mike to produce. SL does not on the face of it seem to be an obvious first choice other than I admit, permitting.
But only IMO. DYOR
D1nger good morning.
Great post - I think the point is that the written chance of success is 20%. However as you correctly said. Why go for this first when you have the only land based well to be drilled in 2018 that Woodmac think worth watching as number two?
Does not make sense and not only that it costs you nearly twice as much.
I firmly believe SL is first because of three things:
1) MB and Co think there is a better that 20% chance of it producing
2) Possibly more importantly it will give an insight into Taats Basin
3) PM have indicated a drill approximately 200m deeper than originally planned which may mean there is a further possibility lower than previously indicated.
All in all - I agree very much it makes no sense to spend a large (relatively) amount of money on something that you feel is only a 20% chance of success.
All IMO but to me there seems to be more to SL than meets the eye.
ATB and GLA.
Sad really - there has been some ramping but by and large most of the thoughts on here are based on reasonable estimates.
I think there are a few who push their own agenda - up or down but I have to admit compared to some boards the thoughts here are fairly balanced.
SM123/Fund at one end Captain in the Middle and MR P at the other end, To me that is how it should be - we each get to give an onion and to put forward a set of scenarios that we believe or certainly think the facts speak to.
Is that ramping - in my view no, as long as it is clear whether an opinion or a statement of "fact" from a 3rd party source.
I sometimes get feed back from the street in "UB", is it a fact no but I hope I am clear it is street talk and may or may not be true.
IN any case just a few rambling thoughts for this Thursday morning.
GLA and keep the posts coming.
Good morning all
Interesting times. Am a crypto follower as well as PM LTH and have to admit to wanting to cut my throat this morning!
BUT................
Ironic - I have been reading AIM rule 10 - Principles of disclosure and AIM rule 11 General disclosure of price sensitive information.
To me the more a read and re-read things the important sentence in Rule 10 is .......
"An AIM company must take reasonable care to ensure that any information it notifies is not misleading, false or deceptive and does not omit anything likely to affect the import of such information."
I suspect that PM is being very careful about doing all the necessary due diligence to ensure any statement about oil/gas or lack off is not only factual but correct.
As I posted yesterday there were too many RNSs issued in 20009/2010 and 2011 which were misleading at best!
MB and the board are well aware of this, and yes in the short term the price dips due to lack of news but again as I said yesterday I would rather we get:
1) Factual
2) Correct
3) Detailed
information late than get a load of the proverbial early.
That said as always................DYOR!
Bet of luck Paul, OJ, MR P, Ham, JND, B&C, Bored D, Manro, Mannan , D1nger et al!
Last thought for today
If my maths is till ok the way to calculate probability is to multiply the chances of something happening and then to deduct the sum from 1.
In our case we have 1-sum(0.8*0.8*0.5*.25) = 92% chance of one of the wells being a producer. I think Mikey commented on this the other day.
Bottom line is a 92% chance of success of some sort to me is a reasonable reason to put your hard earned money on PM. (remembering this excludes 2019 wells!)
However if you use Edison calculation based on "chance of Commercial success you get :
1-sum(0.89*0.91*0..85*0.62*0.77) = 67% chance of one of the wells being a producer.
If you then do the same with the chance of geological success you get :
1-sum(0.85*0.87.5*0.50*0.80*0.70) = 79% chance of one of the wells being a producer.
To me I can live with a 67% chance of success, a 79% looks better and a 92% looks pretty damn good however you cut-it!
DYOR and all IMO
GLA !!
With the share price on 3/05/2010 at 58.85p per share the Company posted this RNS on 11/05/2010
" RNS 6966L…..”February 2009 announcement by the Petroleum Authority of Mongolia (PAM) of the geological resources established by Petro China's subsidiary, Daqing Tamsag Mongolia LLC, on Block XIX. PAM announced in-situ reserves of approximately 900 million barrels of oil and 2.5 million cubic metres of gas.”
I think based on this alone we have some reason to feel calm about reserves in Block XX.
All IMO.
ATB
Guys good morning
I am getting a little fed up with the posters who keep on harping on about the lack of news.
I would like to propose patience as the watch word for the moment. I would remind you that previously the Shareholders were misled by posts such as those shown below, which were yes regular, but also totally misleading :
31/08/10 – RNS8411R - ….”The previous concept for siting the second well 4km west of DT-1, on a separate structure known as Davsan Tolgoi West, was reconsidered. In view of the encouraging results of DT-1, the Company decided to locate the DT-2 well on the major Davsan Tolgoi prospect, and on the same structure as DT-1 to improve its understanding of this primary prospect.
Production tests will be carried out on one of three wells being drilled this year and a decision on which well to test will be made later in the programme.”
Yes and if you check the share price around this time it was riding nicely
01/09/2010 – 192.78P/share
30/09/2010 – RNS5812T - . The entire 71m section of the Tsagaantsav formation contained oil shows and elevated mud gas, with indications of live oil through six sandstone and conglomerate units totalling about 35m in aggregate. Several of these intervals included very good shows that included cut, fluorescence, oil staining and a strong petroliferous odour. Good reservoir quality was indicated by fast drilling breaks through all sandstone and conglomerate intervals.
01/10/2010 – 200.00p/share
Maybe I am crazy but I feel a lot happier with the statement made on:
10/07/2018 - RNS0704U – “ The Company will make a further announcement on completion of drilling operations.”
10/07/2018 – 9.45p/share
Guys let’s get real – this is a wildcat well in a new area with many different geological issues that need evaluating. John Boast, Seismic Interpreter and Jerry Smart, Geological Consultant each with over 35 years of experience in upstream oil and gas were added to the team in May this year.
Give Mr Buck time to evaluate properly what he has found, duster or not, oil, gas or nothing. To me we have the A team we just need the patience to let them do their jobs.
Thank heavens this is not 2010 and we are not getting fed the proverbial bxlxshxt that was given to us then!!
Good luck to all. Yes IMO. But really which would you rather have?
ATB Paul, OJ, Captain, D1nger, Ham, Manro, Maestro, Mikey, JMD, Bucc, Loz, Mr P, Fund, 123 and many others as always thanks for your posts and keep them coming!!
Captain The July 10th RNS was to me clear - “ company will make further announcements on completion of drilling operations!” So to me next RNS will not address SL - maybe site prep for WH but mainly XX update . That said DYOR!
Fund
Get used to it the RNS was clear to me the last time round. No news until the completion of SL. (I suspect this will carry on until the end also!)
Frustrating I agree. As I said last week the approval of the Contract by Gov for the new rig for Block XX is what is holding things up as far as issuing the RNS. They can't until the relevant department has signed,
My money is the new rig contract, preparation of drilling site for WH and the mob date on site for Gazelle in one hit.
I think SL will be a separate RNS.
Morning Paul/OJ good day for sail. I understand Crete is magic this time of year.
TAs always DYOR
Good morning all
Just been looking at the Stockdale Client Sheet and Edison equivalent version.
What comes out of it is some anomalies: Stockdale indicate a risked share price including development costs of 47.11P/share based on revising their figures and adding SL in, was previously 36p approx. Edison on the other hand have some strange discount factors which if you remove gives you a figure 42.6P/share (their Client sheet shows RENAV 30.8P). (RENAV - Risked Exploration Net Asset Value)
Both of the above assumes that the farm- out is based on 50% dilution.
If however you look at an oil price of say $80/BOE and you assume a farm-out of 30% dilution then your RENAV jumps to 64.8P/share. That’s without factoring the herd mentality which we all know can send things a lot higher , for no real reason.
My own feel is the real number that things should settle in at around 48p/share based on Edison net recoverable barrels of 418 MMBBL, and assuming a 40% to 45% dilution due to farm-out etc.
Just a few numbers that to me are not too bad without going to the dizzy heights of what we know is possible.
In any case – have a great week, hopefully news today!
ATB – and please as always DYOR.
GLA – Mr P, Ham, D1nger, OJ, Buc, Manro, Loz, Mikey, JND et al.
Captain
I am only stating what I am hearing. Is it 100% correct who knows. But to me makes sense. Anything to do with the Chinese is touchy with the Mongolian Government.
I believe what I am hearing makes sense.In addition the rig is right next door to the drill site, the early works on site to prepare the pad will be max 2 weeks, drilling was stated as being late Q3 which is September/early Q4. So to me no real reason to panic.
As always DYOR though!!
ATB