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Guys
I dont think the take-over at present is an option for a few reasons:
1) Politically I think Mongolia would want to keep Petrovis in the driving seat
2) Any new country entry unless Chinese would have to export the product somewhere and being landlocked not too many options.
3) Refinery if it becomes a reality which is likely will need the feed stock
4) Farm in gives less risk for the farm-inee than a take-over
In short I thought about it earlier and I think Loz corrected me on in terms of the numbers and bottom line I cant see the real benefit.
STOP! rewind.
However if the Chinese government get involved and the refinery does not go ahead then maybe a Chinese take-over is possible.
To me a possible scenario in this case is an outright sale of the asset , and then at the same time PM move to other blocks and go through the same process. Maybe this is a possibility but to me still unlikely!
That said IMO!
Morning all.
Azba
How you manage to get to 60 days plus to TD defeats me.
The contingency period we all know is 20 days - the drill time to TD is 50 days. They started drilling 10 days ago. To me the most likely arrival at TD is 55 days say 45 days from now max. However this could still be anythig up to 10 days too long.
Realistic news date to me would be around 31st August, and maybe earlier.
As to what happens in regards to interim news not sure.
There is a thought that they may declare WH as a "tight hole" - if that happens then possibly we will get a detailed update on SL and then silence until update on WH around the 30 to 40 day mark say around beginning of 2nd week in October. (all being good!)
IMO - a few thoughts.
Great day here again - ATB Ham, OJ., Manro, D1nger, JND, Mr P , S123, Fund, Mikey, Loz, Bucc , SBB and Super R!
Thanks to all for their posts!
Morning all,
The hardest thing for any investor is to me when a share tanks, when logic says it should perform in the opposite way. The issue with PM is that for so long we have had our hopes raised only to find at the last minute something is in the way, something has gone wrong etc. I think a couple of things. (not my head talking but my heart, and wouldn't it be nice if I was right!)
They say things come in threes..
1) Bergen, 1st Raise and 2nd raise
2) SL, WH and Fox
3) Gazelle, plus one and Red Deer.
It is about time we have some luck!
6 successful holes would be great!
I know dreaming but everyone is entitled to a quiet dream on Monday morning!!
ATB - IMD!!
Great days ahead all! GLA
WW1 - Agree totally - I have already had a go at FTI and PM over this.
Result was as follows:
"In relation to drilling newsflow. It is the Company’s policy to announce on spud and then when it comes into possession of price sensitive news, thereafter."
In short again I think FTI were delinquent in their portfolio by allowing the wording to say one thing when they meant another.
That said no real damage done if they follow what they said above however lets see what happens!
All IMO but really agree they could have done much better from a PR standpoint!!
Guys
An FYI a rig in the US can drill up to 5,000m in a month, this equates to numerically 22 days to drill to 3,500m.
I stress this is an up to. My own feel is we could be looking to anything between 30 and 40 days to drill and then testing to follow.
Just a thought.
Great weekend all.
123 - I dont think you are right - Mike had no choice he has to spend the money on Block XX and needs to get the PSC converted from an exploration to a production PSC.
He made the comment in the last interview that he had only 3 drilling seasons left and he did not want to miss out on any of these season prior to exploration period ending in July 2020 for Block XX.
In addition the upside potential of Fox exited him and the geologists.
To me he did something which may not have helped the SP but he made sure that he had a good chance of securing block XX for the future and also advance the expenditure on the other two block which was needed also.
So sad for us as investors but longer term I think he will be proved to have made the right choice, albeit a hard one.
DYOR but all IMO.
Great weekend all.
Interesting 12 trades from 11.30am onwards yesterday showed sells totaling 3.25M shares
Smells to me like a few people were spooked by the Chairwoman's sells, which when you think about it is totally daft!!
The woman holds in excess of 14M shares and her children have 1 million or so, 1 Million was only her moving some cash into the bank.
I agree timing was rubbish, but that aside nothing has changed.Topped uop yesterday and will do the same today. Very cheap shares how ever you cut it.
As the corporal said/..."Dont panic!!"
All the best to all - great few months ahead just need to be patient. Hard to do at times I agree.
Guys
To back up what Bucc says normal rig operations are 24/7. Only thing that will stop them if they get problems in the whole, need to run special tools, loose circulation etc. and in addition they will pull out to change drill bits.
That aside the cost per day of the operation and the size of crew which Sinopec has (above 80 people) all indicate 24/7 for the rig.
DYOR but I have never worked on a rig working less than 24/7.
For clarity - an article from GeoExpro - 2016
"The petroleum system consists of source rock, migration pathways, reservoir, seal, and trap. Source rocks represent the hydrocarbon kitchen (generation) in a sedimentary basin. The source rock is also the first logical step to assess a petroleum system, for no matter how excellent a reservoir or a trap may be, without an effective source rock there would be no petroleum charge into the basin. "
I think this clearly shows why the source rock is important and leads to excitement by geologists and geophysicists.
In our case Mike Buck, John Boast and Jerry Smart.
Of note the comment made in RNS8883N dated 14/05/18.
"The Tugrug Basin has excellent evidence of a working petroleum system with thick, rich source rocks outcropping on the basin margins and live oil shows in the basin edge TSC1 core hole."
In short I think we have a good chance of getting the result we all need.
D1nger as always - excellent post!
GLA - I hope interesting news later.
Guys
Sometime ago someone correctly realised I had made an error when I started talking about the farminee taking a chunk of the Company, as he rightly pointed out the correct point was he would take a chunk of the lease.
The question then comes what terms are they likely to give away. To me:
1) Obviously a percentage of the lease - I would suggest around 45% max.
2) For this they would want I would suggest $100M as I stated before
3) In addition I would think a 15 to 20 well program over the next three years ( cost maybe $80M)
IF you look at the returns for a farminee based on EMV just on block XX they could look to recover $128M very quickly so real outlay to them say $52M. Thats without any upside from block IV/V.
Also I am assuming they will want to farmin to the all three block not just blocks IV/V as I suspect Mike was to develop the early oil option and get revenue flowing soonest.
Last though for today who?
My top 5 short list is now :
Anadarko
Yanchang Petroleum (listed on HK exchange)
Cairn (possibly via Cairn Energy India due to refinery connection)
ENI
Tullow
The above said to a point I think Anadarko have their hands full in Madagascar as do ENI.
Yanchang look good however there are political issues.
To me that leaves the front runners as Cairn and Tullow.
Of the two I like Tullow but Cairn may have deeper pockets at present. (Cairn Energy India is still 38% owned by Cairn UK) .
In any case just a few ideas. The only other one that comes to mind in connection with the refinery is OIL India.
ATB
GLA
Morning all.
Well at long last we seem to have lift off again.
Just an update to an earlier post I made.
1) Average price of oil (2011 to 2012) was US$ 111.47/BOE.
2) If you take current WTI price US$74.17/BOE
3) This gives a price drop of 33.5% on 1)
4) Highest price previous drilling period was Stg GBP 2.24/share (Apr 2011)
5) 66.5% price would be around GBP 1.49/share
6) No of shares in circulation in Apr 2012 was 186 M
7) No of shares in circulation in July 2018 is 662 M
8) Assume a direct ratio on price and you get an equivalent price of GBP 0.28p/share
9) Then in 2011/2012 PM were talking 120MM BOE mid.
10) PM are now talking about 3 drill ready targets based on blocks IV and V = (90 + 480+ 200) = 770 MMBOE. (Upside 1,250MMBOE)
11) Plus PM are now talking of 3 wells in for block XX =(15 + 48 + ??15)= 78MMBOE.
12) So total recoverable suggested as 848MMBOE mid.
13) So the price of the shares goes to Stg 1.97 based on mid
14) So total recoverable maybe 1,450 MMBOE based on high (my estimate as not all the figures are available).
15) So the price of the shares goes to GBP ?.?? based on high
So yes the numbers are significant but based on current estimates for recoverable reserves they are still not too dream like.
But as always DYOR. This has always been a dream share. Dream meaning the possibilities were always mind boggling. But it has now I think graduated to a share that has substance, yes agreed no oil (other than shale oil) but it does have good numbers in the 3D, very possibly better numbers and prospects to be confirmed.
One last though if you take an EMV approach and use the same number as above you get this:
a) Wild Horse – EMV now $503.5M
b) Falcon – EMV now $179.8M
c) Red Deer – EMV $209.79M
d) Bock XX – EMV $233.2M
e) EMV Total $1,126.29M
f) Equates to $1.70/share = GBP 1.2855p/share.
In any case a few thoughts for today.
My thanks as always to D1nger great posts, Bonum, Hawk, OJ, Paul, Mr P , Big Bench, Manro, IB123, Loz, Bucc,Oilbell, Super R, Ham, SBB, JnDavid and Stew.
ATB to everyone and GLA.
But PLEASE DYOR!!