Fund - take exception to your comment - the reason they have drilled 11 dusters was due to a geologist/geophysicist who at best was questionable in his abilities. The one duster MB has drilled I suspect was on the basis they needed to know more about the geology and had also a PSC commitment. Takil-1 is to me a different ball game entirely. MB did not say it but implied this was more than just a must drill. To a point Woodmac supported this by making this the one onshore wildcat to watch. Add to this shows of HC in the cores all leads towards a drill that actually had more than a 9% chance of commercial success. Bearing in mind I think the COS from a technical point of view was around 14% (Someone correct me if I am wrong) . So fund not a lottery but as good a shot on a wildcat as you are likely to get. Yes still a long shot but guys the return when it comes in makes it worth the outlay! All IMO! GLA
The sad thing is the so called ramping is in most instance measured researched opinion. Unlike a few uninformed de-rampers who seem to be vocal with little or nothing to support their views . That said I agree the proof is in the results which are close now! GLA
BigB - nice one - to answer the question - when the original estimate was done by the previous MD . When MB arrived he brought his own experts on board - they/he after a further review changed the estimate. At the same time Falcon was removed from the drilling program and SL was decided to be drilled first and WH second. Later Red Deer and Fox were introduced also. Hope this helps ! GLA
Mr P
Sorry but take issue with your comments on the weather. In short this is Mongolia. Long range forecast has worst temperature around -23deg at night. These guys are used to the cold (Drillling crew) - the rig has been winterised, I dont see any weather causing us issues as it is forecast at present. Agreed that could change but I think we will get a result this year one way or another.
What I think is up for grabs is if /when they hit hydrocarbons they will need to do some testing. That is the only thing that could delay us knowing the final story to my way of thinking.
GLA all.
Guys
Am sure someone has already made the point but just to emphasise it - on the North slope in Alaska guys work i temperatures down to -45deg. Quote from an article
"uninhabitable tundra known as Alaska’s North Slope, a pipeline begins. In temperatures that hover around forty-five degrees below zero, in perpetual darkness, a tight-knit band of roughnecks spends twelve hours a day, seven days a week, drilling down, down into the earth and pulling up precious crude. "
My point is -23deg seesm to be th loest forecast between now and 6th December and so I think all being well we are in good shape.
Watch the weather Paul understand a cold snap on it way to the UK. ATB OJ, Mr P, Hawk, Manro, D1nger, Captain, Maestro, JND, SBB, Loz and many others.
I think we may get what we all want.
Guys Re-temperature - having spent a couple of winters in Kazakhstan some years ago when we hit -35deg and -40deg - I can confirm we worked building a plant throughout the winter. Don’t misunderstand me - my own feel is end November will be the limit unless there is a very mild winter. This rig if you check back was winterised on site. I suspect all the cold weather gear for operations down to around -20deg (remembering the problems are more mechanical than human at night) is already with them. So to me end November is feasible dependent on how cold it gets. As an aside the packing unit in a BOP(annular preventer) stack has a nitrile rubber (synthetic components in natural rubber) that is designed to work from -35deg to 107deg. In short I think we will finish this year however my caveat is Deo valente! GLA - stay safe!
Guys Rig down is 3 days max - 3 days travel and then 3 days rig up! The site prep will be done already - the LQ units, offices, storage huts are all part of the move and much of the move will have started as soon as the decision to plug was made. My guess is spud between 4th Oct and 8th Oct. All as always IMO. GLA - champagne still on ice!
Guys
I think it is clear from the quote below -
1) SL drilling is ongoing
2) WH site prep is on track and the rig move will start as soon as the TD is reached and they have pulled the string out and rig down is complete. The move is only 300 Kms - so ok 150 plus trucks, travel time say max 3 days, rig up another three days - they should be spudding and drilling within 10 days max - say around 27th Sept latest.
"Operations at Snow Leopard 1 in Block V are progressing and we look forward to updating the market once the drilling has been completed. Similarly, preparations at Block IV are on track for the Wild Horse 1 well."
All as always IMO.
Good luck to all!
This is me signing off from Korea! That said I will be in Thailand next week and so you will still have to put up with my posts from there.
Big thanks to Mikey, Ham, Bonum, OJ, Mr P, Captain, Maestro, Manro, D1nger, Bucc, Paull ( sail safe my friend!), Loz and many others! Keep the posts coming remember a point of view is just that! neither right nor wrong. Also I think everyone on the board contributes, some we may not like but in the end you must DYOR!
Guys
They drilled 12 wells in Block xx previously . In blocks In block IV and V they have not drilled any wells but have a sizeable amount of 2D , also 2 core holes and Aerial work.
Wild horse is the one well onshore that WoodMac suggested was worth watching in 2018, all the others were offshore. Hope this helps.
Morning everyone,
I keep looking at the sentence I have copied below and the more I look the more I think it is a positive hint.
1) Why would you put ..." ..we look forward..." if SL is a duster - surely you would simply put ..." we will update the market once ..."
2) The site prep has obviously been completed for WH and ...."preparations are on track...." and so there is nothing to stop an immediate rig-up on arrival, which in itself is positive.
So to me "Operations at Snow Leopard 1 in Block V are progressing and we look forward to updating the market once the drilling has been completed. Similarly, preparations at Block IV are on track for the Wild Horse 1 well." is possibly a bit more positive than we think.
All as usual IMO.
GLA all.
Guys
I hate to say it but they said no news until TD and so to me we wait.
The only slight case for an early RNS is to me either - major issue - like they lost a string in the the hole? or conversely they have hit a major gusher?
That aside we wait.
IMO
Good luck to all!
Captain
The 50 was a number given by our previous MD, with a depth of 3,150. the new depth plus whatever specs the new MD negotiated take us to 70. I dont think anyone realistically thought it was just a contingency.
That said may be wrong. I mean by anyone (MB and crew) not us.
IMO