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Guys - this may help - just an extract.
The capability of drilling from under the surface hole to the top of the Woodford with one PDC bit decreased the drilling time from the 53 days required in the 1990s to 23 days or less (Fig. 3).
In Stephens and Garvin counties, consistent use of the design-application process, coupled with new PDC designs have reduced bits per well and drilling days to TD by more than 40% and increased the average footage drilled/bit from 729 ft with TCI bits in 1990 to 4,815 ft by PDC bits in 2002.
In some cases, a single run is drilling the entire interval from under the surface hole to the top of the Woodford. The record to date is 8,343 ft in Garvin County at a rate of penetration (ROP) of 40.4 fph."
Gives you a feel.
Guys
Good morning - worth looking at the amendments to the Articles being proposed - in short
Articles 5.3,,49.1,49.2,80,93.1,97a), 102,103,105,107,108,109,112,113,114,116.117,118,147.3,and 152 - are all amended to remove the necessity of Directors to be residents outside the UK or not-ordinarily resident outside the UK.
This is said to be as a result of changes in UK law and may be PM getting ready to accept a director/farm-in partner who (one assumes would want at least one seat on the board) is a UK resident, and as they state being able to hold Board Meetings .
The other changes relates to Pre-emption and are shown in Articles 6.4 and 6.5 which have been totally re-written. I think again if I read this correctly it means they can make an allotment of shares if they want to for any reason up to the issued share capital of course, however they can relate to an event that may occur after the AGM. Further it is renewing the right that was present prior to the AGM but expires during the AGM.
To me the first set of changes I think is good news, it seems to me we may get a new non-Exec director from outside
Mongolia. Possibly a potential farm-in partner.
The 2nd is I think housekeeping but I may be wrong.
Any comments/thoughts?
Bucc
I suspect the volume was low so in fact the movement means very little.
Also I think any movement at present unless backed by hard fact is really either panic or greed. Either peopole selling as there has been no news, or buying because the price is so cheap.
In my view neither are real indicators just individuals feelings. Don't misunderstand I accept both are valid points of view but to me not really indicators as such.
All IMO as always DYOR.
ATB
http://www.petromatadgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/SM20180710-presentation.mp3
Not sure if anyone else answered this.
Good morning all,
Well next few days are going to really sort the men from the boys in some ways. To me there are a number of options as detailed by others very well:
1) Hang in there - regardless of whether SL is a duster or not - (still dont understand the theory by some that it is ?other than on the law of probabilities!)
2) Sell on a small rise over the next few days and then re-buy hopefully lower at the start of WH.
3) Wait until the result of SL and the result of WH and then buy on the up swing !
4) Move to another board!
To me the easy option is 1) - no hassle - but I fully understand people who have chosen to take the other options.
In short best of luck which ever option you take. The next RNS hopefully covering just block XX will then I think cement a price that is reasonable as the bottom and then I think if all goes well we can reach for the stars!
ATB - Ham, D1nger, OJ, Mr P, Captain, Loz, JND, Ronin, Paul, Manro, and many others. Thanks to all for the great posts.
Last part which I think is a interesting as gives a view of why DST v Other tests -
Generally, the DST test takes more time than MDT, e.g. 30 days vs 5 days, or 7 days vs 2 days. In order to book resource estimates and to support investment decisions, DST data is a must, but RCI/MDTRCI is the first step. The decision on which test to use is driven by the test objectives, the well type and environment, costs and the regulatory requirements."
Hope this is interesting - I think ar=t least it gives a feel of what needs to be done.
GLA - ATB
Guys
Other options:
Formation Test, Repeat Formation Test (RFT),
Reservoir Characterization Instrument™ (RCI™)
Modular Formation Dynamics Tester™ (MDT™)
all are formation tester and sampling tools that measure the formation pressure vs depth at various points in the open hole using a wire-line, as well as collecting fluid samples. Once the tool is run in to the well on a wire-line and sealed against the wellbore by opening the valve, fluids are flown into the sample chamber. During the flow, reservoir pressure data is recorded, which allows calculating the permeability (ability of the liquids to flow through the rock) of the formation. Liquids that are inside the tool are brought to the surface for further analysis for assessing their chemical and physical properties. RCI/MDT are more advanced options of RFT, providing more accurate data and less contaminated samples. In tandem with other tools, a number of more detailed and real-time data collection and analysis methods can be conducted. One of the key drivers to use this test is that there is an indication that the reservoir could be compartmentalized, and to understand if a full DST test is required.
Key benefits are:
Measures initial reservoir pressure
Identifies the type of fluids inside the rock
Determines fluids contact
Collects samples at the reservoir conditions
Records and measures any vertical communication between the layers
Allows real-time fluid analysis
ATB
Guys - this may help people understand the process
"Drill Stem Test (DST) is a process that tests pressure, permeability and the production potential of a productive zone, while the drill string (i.e. drill pipe and other assembly) is in the well, by temporarily completing the well. A special packer type tool is used to isolate a section of the well during the well test. Also, a shut-in tool is lowered in to the well, which provides full control and allows opening and closing of the well. Pressure and temperature gauges are installed on a DST assembly. Primarily used in an open-well environment and during exploration, during the DST test, fluids are produced through a hollow in the drill pipe all the way up to the surface, where special equipment is mobilized for well-testing operations (aka a Surface Well Test).
Sometimes, companies may test down-hole only and produce only the volume of liquids that the hollow structure and volume of the drill string can accommodate. In most cases, this is done for environmental and safety reasons and is called a closed-chamber test or a non-flowing to the surface test.
Generally, a DST test is conducted in stages, i.e. a flow period between 5 minutes and 2 hours, then a period of time to build up the flow in order to understand the pressure behaviour, followed by a longer flow period (up to 3 days) to pick up the trends in the flow and its stability. Once the DST test is completed, the fluid sample, data on the pressure behaviour and hydrodynamics, the formation properties and the flow rates are available for further analysis. DST tests can be classed as: 1) flowing to the surface and 2) closed-chamber tests (non-flowing). Sometimes, a longer test, called an Extended Well Test, is conducted to better understand the field.
The benefits are:
Measure average and static reservoir pressure
Allows calculation of well productivity
Identifies reservoir boundary and drainage radius
Identifying information on the shape, size and geological complexity of the reservoir
More accurate reliable in reserves definition"
Good luck all - article on the web.
In the same article back in 2000 SOCO goes onto say :
“Log analysis on the 19-10 exploratory well indicated a net productive reservoir of approximately 77 meters in a gross interval from 2,324 meters to 2,449 meters that could yield in excess of thirty million barrels of recoverable oil.”
Interestingly enough SOCO commented also ….”The 19-3, which open-hole tested from a net 36 metre interval at a stabilised rate of approximately 690 barrels of oil per day was produced on pump during 1999 at a stabilised rate of 250 barrels of oil per day (BOPD). “
Now the interesting point……..”The new wells were not drill stem tested during drilling operations in order to avoid potential formation damage which is believed to have hampered the production rates of the 19-3 well.”
They went on to say “Each of the new wells is producing at approximately 250 BOPD at pump capacities which may not reflect ultimate flow potential.” – this we know to be true as the production from block XIX peaked at around 20,000 BOPD agreed from a large number of wells from memory over 470 wells (gives an average of around 42 BOPD/well.
The article goes onto to say : ….”Full assessment of the stabilised production capabilities of the new discoveries is pending completion of pumping and production facilities. “
My points are these:
1) 50 day well likely, to ensure no damage to the hole
2) Possible open hole testing only intially
3) Further testing likely on completion if there are positive shows
4) Mike is canny and I am sure has already seen the details released by SOCO relating to block XIX
Agreed Block IV and V are not identical geology but it may give an indicator for a RNS at 50 plus days the plus depending on the testing once complete , say around 10 to 16 days after reaching TD.
ALL IMO but maybe a thought for after breakfast.
ATB and GLA>
Good morning all!
I wonder!!!
– SOCO when they were drilling agreed a deal with Huabei Oilfield Services, a Chinese company providing the drilling services in Block XIX, to reduce drilling costs substantially.
Maybe history is going to repeat itself.
“ Under the terms of the reduced cost drilling programme (from approximately $2.2 million per well to approximately $0.5 million per well), Huabei Oilfield Services, a Chinese company providing the drilling services, would earn the right to elect to participate in Contract Area 19 after completion of the full eight well programme.
Huabei's participation of up to 20% would be on a working interest basis and fully funded by Huabei going forward.”
So may be, a Chinese company providing the drilling services, will get a similar deal of 20% of the block as a working interest, and reduced well costs from $2M a go to $0.5M.
Agreed maybe a stretch but this might make sense and hence the extra time to negotiate this contract and by doing this negate the need for a farm-in and more importantly set PM up for the future nicely.
Low rig costs, minimal dilution and everyone wins.
BUT also maybe this is the reason for the delay – remembering this is a Chinese operator and so likely to need Governmental approval not only for the rig contract but also the dilution in the working interest in the block.
In any case a thought to help you eat your toast and drink your coffee this morning!!
All the best everyone and good luck!
Safe sailing Paul, best of luck OJ, Ham, Bonum, Mr P, D1nger, Manro, Mikey, Captain, Loz, Romin et ak!!
Guys
Bit confused - the COS has been stated a few times -
Technical - COS
1) Stockdale came in at 16.7% for White Horse and 50% for Gazelle.
2) Circular on 15/06/18 stated..."Company is confident that it has identified prospects with an attractive chance of success, ranging from 50% to 75% based on internal estimates.
Commercial COS
1) Wild Horse - 10%
2) Snow Leopard - 12%
3)Fox - 15%
4)Red Deer - 22%
5)Gazelle - 37%
The figures are according to Edison and to be fair they qualify their numbers by saying the Block IV and Block V are high risk.
That said I would be very surprised if they said anything else. Short of the core samples in Block IV and Block V there is very little to go on at present.
However as Mike Buck has repeated many times the Wild Horse is a "must drill prospect"! The man knows his rocks and has been around a long time. I believe firmly that if anyone has a chance of making the right choice Mike and his team are it. In addition a 50% to 75% chance of technical success on Block XX is pretty good by anyone's standard.
All IMO and please please DYOR.
ATB and GLA.
Neither AR
The rig will drill until it reaches the TD (Total Depth) in this case I think 3,250M. During the drill there are in our case expected to be 3 pay areas. Depending on the geology they will also case the hole during the drill. Cased and perforated completion is the most common type of completion which is selected my many companies. For this completion, a production casing or a liner is cemented through reservoir zone(s) and subsequently, a well is perforated in order to provide communication between the formation and wellbore.
Perforation should ideally penetrate deeper rather than nearer a wellbore damage zone around a wellbore so fluid from a reservoir can effectively flow into a wellbore. Additionally, several depth control methods help to accurately select which section of reservoir to be perforated. Hence, undesired zones, such as gas, water or weak formation can be avoided and this will improve well production efficiency. In short they drill and case,depending on geology until TD is reached. Along the way they may , if the signs are positive, but depending on the well engineer decide to carry out a DST or number of DST to confirm what they think/expect/know.
Hope this helps.
IMO and DYOR.
Guys Good morning - this may help -
Generally, a DST test is conducted in stages, i.e. a flow period between 5 minutes and 2 hours, then a period of time to build up the flow in order to understand the pressure behavior, followed by a longer flow period (up to 3 days) to pick up the trends in the flow and its stability. Once the DST test is completed, the fluid sample, data on the pressure behavior and hydrodynamics, the formation properties and the flow rates are available for further analysis. DST tests can be classed as: 1) flowing to the surface and 2) closed-chamber tests (non-flowing). Sometimes, a longer test, called an Extended Well Test, is conducted to better understand the field.
Key benefits are:
Measure average and static reservoir pressure
Allows calculation of well productivity
Identifies reservoir boundary and drainage radius
Identifying information on the shape, size and geological complexity of the reservoir
More accurate reliable in reserves definition
In short if they have 3 possible pay zones if they are testing at each which is logical then reality is add at least ten days to the drilling period to cover the DST testing - and lets hope for extended testing and EOP!!
That said as always IMO and DYOR.
Guys
I think Ronin's slide shows the two most likely scenarios. Day 48 based on 50 days of drilling and 60 days of drilling. The Testing I think you will find is built into the 70 number.See below (now of course day 45 including spud day)
https://thefundmanager.co.uk/uk-listed-stocks/petro-matad-ltd
From Petro wiki - " A Flow test is an operation on a well designed to demonstrate the existence of moveable petroleum in a reservoir by establishing flow to the surface and/or to provide an indication of the potential productivity of that reservoir. Some flow tests, such as drill stem tests (DSTs), are performed in the open hole.
DST is a conventional technique of isolating and then flowing the target formation to determine the fluids present there as well as the rate at which it can be produced. This helps in finding out the commercial viability of a zone so that a decision to complete the well and produce the hydrocarbons can be taken. DST is an elaborate test and takes considerable rig time and is able to deduce average reservoir parameters and well productivity.
Other flow tests, such as single-point tests and multi-point tests, are performed after the well has been cased.
Single-point tests typically involve a measurement or estimate of initial or average reservoir pressure and a flow rate and flowing bottomhole pressure measurement."
Just an FYI.
I think they are likely to do a DST during the 70 day period and then dependent on the results they may do further tests when the well has been cased. (Note though the test are lengthy but do give the go/no go result needed.
The reasons behind the tests again clearly laid out in Petro wiki and are for exploration wells :
Fluid sampling (Primary reason)
Measuring the initial pressure
Estimating a minimum reservoir volume
Evaluating the well permeability and skin effect
Identifying heterogeneities and boundaries.
In short if successful yes am sure there will be some additional testing done by a test rig however I think there may also be testing at each of the levels that have potential hydrocarbons. Remembering these are potential basin openers.
Last point best case scenario by using available technology they may and could start by move to place early production & extended well test facilities as soon as the rig moves. So all in all interesting times ahead.
In short I think we need patience as time spent doing the correct testing could save time and money and tell us what we want to hear!!
All IMO but DYOR.
Regards to Ham, Bonum, Hawk, Manro, D1nger, Mr P, Loz, Ronin, OJ, JND, Bucc and Paul to name a few!
Typhoon Soulik just on it way to Seoul. Slow moving but not much fun. Glad to be South of it.
Pro = sadly I think you are a bit over the top.
Edison and Stockdale analysts gave us a a good feel for the real value (without the herd mentality I grant you and based on current economics) .
Edison was 62.1P/share risked and pre-farm-out 30.8P post farm-out
Stockdale was 72.7P/share risked and pre-farm-out 36P post farm-out.
Then obviously two questions :
1) How much is the herd mentality going to drive this price ?
2) To what levels?
Maybe the answer is take the unrisked value of Edison they are sitting at 265/share.
My point is I think your numbers are high based on the economics as they are but add in the herd mentality - who knows?
ATB - Bonum glad to see you are still around. Morning Paul/OJ et al!
GLA
Who the hxxx is this Bongalongbob character ! I have never read so many posts that say nothing ! Guys let’s get real high volume - that’s all ! Next week is another period in the interesting time of this share ! DYOR! GLA.