Member Info for 1ontheup

Not sure if what they have accrued for this £190m payout to Ocado is visible in their results or not but my guess is that they have probably considered 100%, especially if the results supported it. Therefore any payment less than that will be a bonus in the end of year results so keep this in mind folks ;-)

People, or shorters, on here are overlooking the fact that Ocado today said that they have written down to zero a final payment of £190m due in April from M&S because they didn't achieve their targets. This is also probably a big factor in the drop in SP. Therefore, it will either turn out to be zero or M&S will agree on something. Any "something" will be a positive for Ocado going forward as the zero is written into the SP. This could provide a bounce in the not to distant future.

Forgive my ignorance but isn't that YoY performance even more impressive given that Morrison's left Ocado late last year?

@jds15 - spot on - me too. And as an expat, I really appreciate the differing opinions based on experience and knowledge, not emotion. It's my only real world insight to what M&S is really doing.

I hope so but you know how M&S reacts to clothing and that was down. The increase was all down to food and although this is the biggest revenue and profit driver for M&S sadly that's now always reflected in the SP in times of volatility..

Airbus said today there will be a 7% increase in deliveries this year. IMHO Trump is pressurising Zelensky because he knows that he could be the stumbling block to reaching an agreement and thinks Putin's red lines are stronger than his (joining EU/NATO & why peace keeping forces are talked about). I pray Ukraine & Zelensky comes out of this positively and I think Trump is desperate for an agreement ASAP because the oil & gas prices will go down as Russia comes back online and that will offset some of the costs of his planned tariffs and make things cheaper for the American household. These 2 factors could be a tailwind for the airline industry.

@itsyourgo very interesting and thanks for that. What might be happening is that they started out with a plan to close these stores but in parallel to the execution timeframe they have seen increases in volumes & profitability in these stores which could be putting some in a ‘wait & see’ mode?

I thought about posting this after listening to the Machin podcast but didn’t want to bore everyone but I think I know what’s happened here. I work for an American company quoted on the NYSE that each year puts together an ‘X-Matrix’ which targets the companies goals for the next 1/3/5 years and it starts with the CEO and cascades down through the organisation. Each department then puts together a transformation plan that they work on to align to the goals in the X-Matrix. Machin mentions the transformation plan quite a few times on his podcast and the way he spoke about it suggested to me that they do something similar. The problem is that my company never mentions transformation plans on the investor calls etc. because this is an internal process of continuous improvement. Machin’s mistake is talking externally like he does internally. I think he thinks that by saying the same things publicly might inspire his team or give him more leverage to get things done which is a bit naive and lacking experience if you ask me. Wording in public is important and can be misinterpreted too easily. We know they went through a transformation plan so rather than keep saying it then maybe talk about continuous improvement instead public instead as this has a more positive connotation meaning they are always seeking to get better on all aspects of serving the customer. There you go, I said it was boring 😂

Thanks Forest, and hallelujah. @JDS, at last someone from the industry shouting about it and not just us 2!!!🤣. Maybe we should both set up a PR consultancy firm 😉

Thanks JDS

@David, anecdotal evidence is important and shouldn't be underestimated. I remember reading this once and after doing so asked my wife what she thought was trending that might be an interesting investment and she said she noticed Michael Kors bags everywhere at the time so in we jumped and did ok out of it before exiting. I started investing in M&S in 2021 after buying Kingfisher in 2020 and selling in 2021 because I had already done ok and didn't think it had much more legs, and boy was I right because it's still stuck around the same level. So I was looking for somewhere else to put this pot and I read about how well the Next SP was doing and how depressed the M&S SP was and that it was embarking on a transformation. My mother always bought her Xmas food and clothes from M&S many years ago so was aware of it's importance so I decided to dig a little deeper reading articles and looking at its offering on their website but wasn't 100% convinced until they popped up on Facebook (probably FB tracking my cookies pushed M&S to me) and when I looked at it a little closer I saw that it had around 5 million followers. I thought wow, so I went through their posts and I noticed that the interest around Xmas time for their food with views, likes & comments etc was incredible and there was also positivity around their clothes but nothing compared to food. So I followed up on the clothing piece to check out their strategy of what they were trying to achieve (food was a given) and thought they were worth a shot so I jumped in, also due to the launch of Ocado.com. Also, doing a search on the internet for M&S brought up a ton of articles about how many certain items of clothing were selling and giving a feel of 'craze'. Another catalyst was Cheryl Potter joining the board from PE (I've mentioned this before) and the comments Archie Norman made about her being a superstar in that industry which made me think that they brought on board an insider because maybe the end goal was to sell - I still believe this could happen - so I increased my stake but do generally play with it depending on sentiment (without selling all) which is also pretty much worked out for me. I have never sold M&S 100% and I tend to sell a % (say 80%) if I think the period is very volatile with the hope of adding again at lower prices back to the original value, so in the end I make more. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't but the sum of the 2 is positive. I never sell 100% if I believe in a stock because it's easier to add again when you are still invested than if you exit completely, the stock rebounds quicky, and then you're nervous it might go back down again so you sit it out and then up she goes (sods law) and the you struggle to re-enter again. At least that's how it works for me emotionally anyway. Unfortunately, living in Italy, I had to bet a little blind on M&S because I couldn't engage with the real world of seeing, touching and feeling their offering. Good luck

@David, thanks for the anecdotal evidence. I love hearing this as I don’t have first hand experience of their clothes or shops as I’m an expat living in Italy. I was over in the UK in November and where I was staying there was a M&S food hall so I couldn’t resist to pop in and get some stuff to bring back and it was quite busy. I also used to buy food from the British Corner Shop which was located in the Netherlands but they sadly shut it last year. That was selling a lot of M&S stuff and I imagined it being successful given all the expats in Europe. It was expensive though and I suspect Brexit finally killed it.

Good luck Fender!!! Keep us posted on your bets because I find day or very short term trading interesting. I also do it sometimes but it's mainly sentiment that pushes that rather than logic

Come on Fender, a half glass full doesn't hurt anyone. We are also very critical about their coms and frustrated about the current SP performance so I don't see how you can justify your comments TBH. Unless, or course, and as I suspect, you enjoy antagonising people. TBH I stopped reading past "OMG it goes on , the M&S thread on this site" because I knew what was coming 🤣. Anyway, I reckon the SP is going to nose dive tomorrow....that any better 😉

@JDS15 exactly

@pang - maybe but I'm not so sure about the dividend. To be honest I don't really see the attraction in dividends unless the yields are very high. If you consider risk and taxes then for me it's not really a determining factor unless you intend to be in the stock for a long, long time. To get this stock going again before the final results ,we need a positive guidance update and subsequent analysts upgrades. @jds15 maybe you could give AN a nudge 😉

To be honest I've done very well out of this stock but I have to admit that it can also be a little frustrating. When I compare the M&S P/E of 15 to some of its peers: Inditex 29, Next 16, Tesco 15, Sainsbury 38 (all rounded up) I don't understand why there's not more confidence in the share price considering the fact that they are taking market share in both clothing & food and looking to expand home. Even Ocado SP is easily outperforming M&S YTD having lost Waitrose and relying heavily on M&S. Grrrrrr

And if Machin thinks things are not going where they should and M&S has a few negative results then could he consider jumping ship? I get the impression he's not one to accept failure so would jump first. HIs approach to business would align perfectly with someone like Blackrock. And what would happen to the M&S share price if the Superman leader decides to leave? This or 1 or 2 negative results would mean headlines like "M&S is falling from the high wire act" and it would be back to square one. So, JDS15, keep this in mind with your overweight holding - just my thoughts as it's also my #1 holding

I thought those 2 podcast interviews with Machin were very interesting and you can feel that much of their success over the last few years were down to him. HIs attention to detail reminded me very much of a VP I worked for who also transformed the business in much the same way as Machin, although in a totally different industry. He also had the same non-stop energy to keep pulling people along with him and most happily jumped on board but also struggled to keep up. And many got tired of it in the end because the energy often turned negative when things weren't going as fast as he liked. Whilst this interview is all positive it makes you think, however, what it would be like if Machin was no longer there. And it also very much felt to me as if he was putting himself in the shop window and made it a lot about himself, although he did mention many other people. I believe his salary is either on a par or much lower to his peers in Asda, Tesco & Next etc. So, here's my question.... if some of us as investors are tired of hearing the word turnaround and the implication that everything is on a "high wire" and at risk if it doesn't continue at the same breakneck speed then how are the employees feeling

And there you have it....Bailey strikes again. Positive bounce on the announcement, then he speaks, and down she goes. I always get the impression that he's trying to justify keeping the rates high with inflation so low. They fcst inflation to rise temporarily to 3.7% this year due mainly to energy prices, before falling again. HIgh interest rates don't affect energy prices, they only make more us poorer or less well off. They are like money leaches just sucking more money out of people's pockets whilst the banks enrich themselves. Anyway, I'm still confident that the general outlook will be more positive.

CNBC are interviewing Bailey at 4pm GMT today. Should be worth a watch 🫣