Member Info for 1ontheup

I doubled my holding as soon as the market opened this morning based on this instinct.

The only question I have is where’s Falla? Asking for a friend (Fender) 😂

I have zero evidence to back this up, just a feeling in my water, that this trade announcement shortly might be positive for RR.

Hi Chilting, agreed and that is part of my hypothesis for staying out and watching at atm.

Hi Forest, we'll agree to disagree on that on that one then ;-)

Hi JDS, I think the institutional investors will give Machin & Norman the benefit of the doubt given their recent track record and the fact that others have also fallen to these hackers. This will be seen as an event and probably an opportunity, even though it may turn out to be expensive for the SP over the short term but, again, that will eventually be seen as an opportunity. M&S is also most likely part of a diversified portfolio so where else would they go in this sector that has the same prospects as M&S?

Not really. You can have a company with a massive market cap and not yet making profits . Also low revenues but the market speculates that revenues will increase so the SP accelerates increasing the Mcap with no real justification, only speculation. The interesting thing for M&S though is the opposite. The market is speculating that revenues and profits will drop so is selling and the mcap is dropping. If another company was interested in acquiring them then the mcap would be used to consider the value. And as the fundamentals remain strong then the further it falls the more interesting it could become for another company to acquire.

I think you’re misunderstanding what market cap means. It’s the total value of a company's outstanding shares of stock. It's a key metric used to gauge a company's size and worth in the stock market and nothing to do with profits or revenues.

The thing is JDS, let's say they come out with the losses tomorrow and everything returns to "normal" and you lose a couple of %, who cares. You can always get back in. And if it drops then you'll feel a bit better about your decision even if the rest of the pot is falling. You can get back in at a discount at a later date. The thing is you've just protected a chunk and realised a profit so good luck to you. We both know they will be back but we don't know when and at what cost.

@JDS & Fender - you both are the complete opposite when it comes to investing. I could never be a LTH without trading it. I get too nervous and like to realise profits. If you don't realise them then they are fake until sold because anything could happen. Learning to trade also makes decision making easier and you get used to feeling comfortable with it and the +/- emotions that come with it. IMO if you stay for the long term then you risk getting too attached to the stock and it's difficult to pull the trigger. For example, it can take a very long time for a stock to grow by 100% but could fall by 50% in much less time and your back to square one. Even though M&S is now a solid company it's still seen as risky. Having said that I had a sizeable pot in Apple which was for the long term but I decided to sell in 2015 as I wanted to reduce my mortgage at the time. That was a mistake as it would be worth a hell of a lot more now but I took the profits and put it to good use so oh well. From that example I've learned how to be a LTH whilst trading it throughout the good & bad times whilst still maintaining a position. I should have kept 25% of Apple and rebuilt it from there. This is not advice but just my view on investing.

Following recent discussions about how this stock is being "supported", I'm really curious to see how the SP will close today. So far it's up almost 1% and being supported by very low volumes whilst its peers are down. If it closes down then I will defo suspect manipulation from the market makers in trying to attract/manipulate attention by pushing the SP higher.

Even though Ocado is down, probably on the back of M&S, I wonder if any extra trade is bring diverted there? I wonder if it will gain any "collateral" success from this? Anybody heard/read anything?

@JDS, agreed. p.s. don't bother with Stille, he's a little bitter about constantly losing on EasyJet. This was one of his posts today "Second refill at 511.20p. So underwater, so far". So just coming over here trying to make others feel bad the poor thing

@ForeverNever, exactly that. The SP will struggle now but as I've written before, the issues now become an opportunity in the future. Not just buying at a discounted price but also the year on year comparison next year when it will be flying again and will be compared to this period, which will no doubt turn out poor. I'm 100% out of M&S, first time in about 4 1/2 years, but I still follow this one more than my other holdings. This has given me my second best profits ever by trading it (never shorting and have never shorted a stock in my life). It's such a shame that this happened because it was on the verge of being my best ever.

That Reddit link is an eye opener. and this also.....

https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/news/mands-online-stock-checker-not-accurate-thanks-to-cyberattack/704116.article

Makes you think about some of the comments on here last week about it all being hunky dory and back to normal etc. It might feel ok in the shop but you just don't know what's going on behind the scenes because that's where all the pain apparently is. All the major supermarkets are up nicely today and also some of the retailers whilst M&S is down around 4%! I honestly don't see it getting much better from here in the short term. Even with the recent losses the PE is only +/- broadly in line with the others so even with the losses from it's highs it's still not "cheap". But once the dust will settle then it will fly again because the business fundamentals are still there. For me, for now, it's trying to understand when that dust will settle because I fear it could touch around 300 going forward. All the news articles are negative and seem to be increasing in volume. Good luck to all.

All the price charts for the stocks that I follow are all acting like heart monitors this morning. Sudden peaks and drops.

M&S surprisingly dropped in Jan after some very good results. We could say it was due to their remarks about NICS etc but it was also probably due to them share only 1% or something growth in clothing. We all think that they will publish stellar results this month but ever if clothing was still sluggish in Q4? This has always been an important benchmark for investors. Also, what aboutt guidance? If they guide lower in clothing due to the cyberattack then will the market give it the benefit of the doubt or think that clothing is still stuck in the mud and it’s just an excuse and just drag the SP lower? Any thoughts on this and the individual bucket risks?

Https://news.sky.com/story/ms-had-no-plan-for-cyber-attacks-insider-claims-with-staff-left-sleeping-in-the-office-amid-paranoia-and-chaos-13361359

I guess we’ll see tomorrow which carries the most weight. In this article an insider suggests it could take months. For sure their cyber security costs and insurance will be a hell of a lot higher going forward. I reallocated 50% of my M&S pot that was waiting to go back in to pre existing positions in MSFT, EZJ & Rolls Royce which I’m glad I did. I will see this week what I’ll do with the rest but I will likely reopen a small position probably this week as I don’t want to be out 100% as that has never been my strategy until this attack. My worry is whether all these losses and extra costs will result in lower profits going forward. Good luck to you all

JDS is right and I hope nobody has been following Falla's advice. It's like someone encouraging others to get on a leaking boat. The boat won't sink but it's likely to have casualties along the way because some struggle to swim but they need to jump out in the panic (i.e. they can't afford to sit on losses for too long so will sell on the way back down and lose money). I've said in every post since this happened that people need to be cautious. As I've written before, tangible doubt = drag and until the full impact is out in the open I'm playing elsewhere. But when it is out then I'm back in as before with hopefully a discount because I believe in this stock.

@fender 🤣🤣🤣🤣

I would also add that the SP appears to be back flowing alongside the other supermarkets which makes me wonder if it's the algorithms & market makers supporting it