Member Info for 1ontheup

Hi Fender, I’m hoping up but I worry about Bailey’s continuous negative outlook on things. Does anyone ever remember him being outright positive about anything?!? He tends to follow the US lead on things but him and Powell are like chalk and cheese IMHO.

Fender, this is not a criticism but just a thought. If your target was 348 and you found it was 350 because you weren't paying attention in the shower :-) then wouldn't have been better to have played that half % more as a buffer just to see where it would close on the day because it went up further? And then carry that buffer over to today and so on. That way maybe you would trade less and make more from fees and profit. Like I said, just a thought

Carrington, you must have been reading my mind of late ;-). However somebody could say, ah wait but if he applies tariffs to the EU, and as we are a net importer from the EU, we will pay more. But going back to your point, the more foreign investment will likely mean a stronger pound which could go some way to offsetting the increases so I think the UK would indeed be in a strong position. It could also mean that as the others react with their tariffs then they will turn to the UK etc to try and offset the loss of business with cheaper prices. US puts tariffs on China, China turns more to Europe & UK with cheaper prices for example. Again, this might help offset any inflation coming from the US protectionism. I hope it make sense ;-) If I'm wrong somewhere then I'd be happy if someone would point it out because this is my thesis going forward.

Fender, well done and just out of curiosity, what was your target % when you bought this morning?

Hi jds15, here's my 2 cents for what it's worth. The companies with potentially the most to lose from this going forward are the infrastructure companies like the high end chip makers and GPU and data centre manufacturers. The ones most likely to gain are the software companies as they should benefit from lower costs. Even though Microsoft is currently heavily invested in open AI and data centres rollout etc I think they could potentially benefit massively from it as also their costs could be lower in the future and they are also producing/using their own chips in limited capacity which should bode well for the future. If you think how their whole business will benefit from AI it's just mind blowing. I'm convinced that MSFT have possible the most to gain from this technology but that's not to say I'll be proven to be right.

I think it should be shouted without comparing to Lidl personally. Having said that my sister, who is pretty well off, shops in Lidl because she says M&S is expensive, but she's a bit tight anyway :-D. I'm curious to know what Archie replied about "turnaround".

Below is from 6th Jan. It has risk written write through it. It would have been better commenting on the plan and how well it's working and what they are doing to sustainably grow the business!!! For example, "hire wire act" for me says you lose your balance for a second and you're dead. He says "the critical thing now is to create a growth business" but it's already growing - so sell this and tell a positive story. "We have a plan" - you've had this for some years so stop saying like it's something new - his full name is Archibald but maybe better ArchiBaldrick with all his plans ;-)

M&S chair Archie Norman has insisted the business has “a lot more to do” despite its recent stellar financial results.

The executive explained the retailer had “a plan but it’s a high wire act and we have got to keep both feet on the wire,”

Norman said: “We think keeping the spirit of the turnaround is essential because it takes a long time to irreversibly change a business.”

However, the chairman noted: “I do believe that we have shown the opportunity of making M&S a great business.

“The critical thing now is to create a growth business. We are in a very strong position to achieve this and we have a plan.”

Hi guys, 3rd bot here (I guess). @Neil this BB is here for clean, open discussion and comments. If you don't like what we're writing then don't read it. I think jds15 is right about comms & potential for someone to come in and acquire M&S. I invested in M&S at the beginning partly for that reason when I read about the appointment of Cheryl Potter to the board in March 2023 and who Archie Norman described as a "superstar of the private equity world." I wouldn't be at all surprised if someone like Amazon even showed an interest. They are super interested in the UK grocery market and there were also rumours about Ocado just last year. It might appear to be a strange fit but could you imagine what the tech platforms & delivery synergies could bring, even if they left M&S to keep doing what's it's doing.

@jds15 re communications. Couldn't agree more. I was thinking just this morning that perhaps the reason M&S is underperforming it's peers is because investors struggle to detach M&S from the past. I wish they would stop talking about turnaround because whilst that worked for a period when the markets were relatively stable/positive, I think it now acts as a weight around it's neck. When there's volatility then turnaround has risk associated with it. He also mentioned the transformation is a marathon not a sprint but why say it? There's loads of positives in the statement that they are doing now and in the future but leave it at that. Marathon gives the impression of something that's going to take some time and effort and there are too many investors that don't want to wait around for the finish, plus the added risk that they might not finish it!

Hi JDS15, do you have a link to this list or where to find it? As you know, I'm on the same page as you and this possibility is what attracted me to M&S in the first place when I read about the appointment of Cheryl Potter to the board in March 2023 and who Archie Norman described as a "superstar of the private equity world." If selling was a potential end game then who better to have on board than a strong insider to that world to get the best deal?

I reluctantly sold 50% on Friday with a view of holding out on the balance and re-entering at some point. I'm not a day trader but I do trade my stocks when it gets volatile. Some other positions I've reduced by more. This is not to say that I no longer believe, but just that I would prefer to try and catch some value on the way down. There is a slew of US & UK data this week and they have the potential for huge swings in either direction - fasten your seat belts folks and always think about the fundamentals of the investments. If they are solid then the rest is just temporary noise.

@Beo1 I can't find any mention of stock losses? Where did you get that info from?

@schwee, margins aren't normally part of the trading update; at least they weren't last January.

My biggest concern for tomorrow is not about the results but more about the commentary looking forward. I hope they are not too negative

Anyone have any anecdotal evidence of this?

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "Judging by its share price jump, investors are putting their money on Marks & Spencer to have cleaned up over the festive season. There were already reports pre-Christmas that shoppers were loading up their baskets with Marks & Spencer’s premium-quality food and drink products, and its clothes were such a big hit with the nation during 2024 that it seems logical to suggest many people gifted them on 25 December."

Couredelion, which companies are you thinking about? To be honest I struggle with UK companies and tend to trust them less so tend to focus more on the US market. Having said that I've taken a new position in Barratt, to add to M&S & EZJ but also thinking about Rolls Royce for 2025. None of these are "cheap" unless you compare EZJ to Ryanair .

Well, as I predicted, Santa is delivering ;-)

Barclays raises Marks & Spencer price target to 440 (400) pence - 'overweight'

Https://www.defenseworld.net/2024/12/13/shore-capital-reaffirms-house-stock-rating-for-marks-and-spencer-group-lonmks.html

Everything points to a great Xmas for M&S so I see a Santa rally on the cards, but suspect that it might come early this year..... starting tomorrow...!

Barclays raises target price to 750p from 700p