RE: Is the price about right19 Feb 2022 16:24
Lets make it clearer, the price that trinity thinks it is worth right now is £2.20, and they get that by calculating that it is worth £20 odd and assuming that Precision has a 10% chance of success, hence £2 odd.
You may think that £20 odd is a lot, that's a £5bn company, with a mechanism for replacing drugs with £10's bn of sales and allowing more sales as many can't be used as much as they'd liek to be used due to toxicity. It'll also refresh their patents for those that are expiring leading to lower development costs. A £5bn valuation is not unbelievable.
So to the 10% chance of success, what is success in this case, delivering more doxyrubicin to the tumour and less to the rest of the body, that's it, not zero to the rest of the body, not no side effects, just lower side effects. Not all of it to the tumour, just more of it. The current indications that led to the allowing of dose increasing certainly suggest that to some degree the above is happening, therefore 10% is now a massive underestimate (my opinion).
The current price can also be looked at in a different way using trinity's valuation, at the moment the price is such that the market believes it's only got a 2.5% chance of success, do you believe that those odds are realistic given a 50% dose increase?