Member Info for 100notout

Have given FRES 'top pick' with a share price target of 1300. That should help.

A reason for the LMI price being higher in London is that the shorters probably realise that it is a done deal and their hope of it failing are now negligible. They will have to buy back their short positions sooner or later...

Fortunately for Lonmin the money from Petrozim will make sure that it has sufficient cash so that shouldn't be an issue. I would be very surprised if the Tribunal didn't wave it through after the recommendation from the competition commission. The unions are stupid enough to try and scupper the deal but I think they will come up against a brick wall as the SA govt will want to keep as many workers employed as possible. The largest shareholders of both Lonmin and Sibanye have already voiced that they will support the takeover.
I agree with Ta that it is a done deal.

I would have expected a higher price for Lonmin but will be happy to hold onto Sibanye and take a long term view as I expect platinum prices to eventually rise. When they do I expect Sibanye will take off...

Looks as though it is now...

Animal Farm a fine analogy...

Well I hope the Lonmin shareholders won't be Down and out in London and Paris...

The SA govt have to realise that PGM miners have no other options other than making redundancies. Is it not better to have say 100,000 miners working rather than 0. If they want the PGM mining companies to make no redundancies they then have to sell off their gold reserves and buy PGM's in order for them to mine profitably. SA counts for about 65% of the worlds platinum production. PGM prices would increase substantially thus PGM miners investing and creating more jobs and making more money thus paying more taxes. This may sound simple but I think it is plausible. It would be better for the SA govt to 'control' the PGM prices and be in charge of their own destiny rather leaving it in the hands of a few traders on COMEX...

I think the difference you will find in this case Rastuss is the future synergies...

The dilution of 11% for Sibanye is nothing for obtaining the third largest PGM producer in the world. I can not see the Sibanye holders voting against the Lonmin acquisition.

They did write by mail but I was away at the time. Whilst away I saw the cash balance but the LMI holding had been deleted. They agreed to repurchase them at their cost so it will be a costly problem for them.

One of my UK brokers sold off my entire LMI holding without my permission. Their excuse was because of the takeover they wouldn't be able to hold SA shares [SBGL] on their platform. They are now buying them back at their cost and will be sent share certs in due course...
My holding with them is relatively large and if they have done this with other holders I suspect it may take them some time to fulfil their obligation.

Whatamess - If there were to be another bid it would probably be a cash offer of around the £1.00 mark. Sibanye desperately want Lonmin and would start a bidding war. If nobody else comes along, Sibanye have just picked up a huge bargain. Imho Lonmin is worth considerably more than £120m...

Yes Ta I know but although Exor have a large position in Sibanye their holding in Lonmin is not that large so that wouldn't count for too much. I think it would certainly be interesting if somebody else came along because Sibanye would no doubt offer a better deal for Lonmin. I very much doubt it would be an existing sole PGM miner but their could be interest from other miners who want to diversify.
Lets face it Lonmin's mkt cap is sod all and is small change for the large diversified mining companies. It was only ten years ago when Xstrata offered $10b for Lonmin. Fundamentals can change very quickly, you only have to look at the reversal of the Rand in the last month...

Sorry, Biggest.

Lonmin's bigeest individual shorter, Bluecrest is reducing it's short position. Interesting...

I still believe that another cash bid could come in for LMI as the market cap is less than £120m. Medium to long term they could be making more than this on an annual basis. Platinum will not stay at these levels for long.

Only a few months ago analysts were saying that Lonmin would be in trouble because of the strength of the Rand and that it was likely to stay at less than 12 ZAR to the US$. Its currently 15.3 ZAR to the US$...

Good move from Sibanye...

This tender process will reduce annual interest payments by $26m.

I wonder when Blucrest and co. will buy back their short positions in Lonmin. This could create a bear squeeze as trading has been very slim in Lonmin of late.

Rastuss really...
Do you think your views are balanced? A tad self delusional.

Has Big Ben done a Michael Jackson and turned white? The last time I saw him I swear that he was black...

The South African govt. should sell their gold reserves and buy PGM'S instead. There are gold mines all over the world unlike PGM mines.The price would go through the roof which would translate in PGM miners not having to make redundancies as they would be in a profitable position. The miners, workforce and govt would benefit. It seems the most obvious thing to do...