Member Info for 100notout

Ta - Probably because of PGM's rising.

Is motoring today up 4%. All adds to the bp...
Lets hope the rest of the PGM's (notably platinum) start to rise then Lonmin could have a bright independent future. One thing for sure if they weren't tied into the SBGL price they would be probably three times higher.

I doubt we will hear anything for a while. It is SA after all...
Mr or Mrs. cut and paste useless news articles has failed to mention that SBGL have signed a three year gold wage agreement with three of the main unions... I don't think they will be striking as somebody predicted. I wonder what other spurious news will be on the agenda... No doubt some false guff about Eskom....

$634m is the kitchen sink write down book value. They have written everything down to virtually nothing. Refineries,smelters etc worth several times the current LMI mkt cap. Investments valued at bare minimum or nothing in the case of Petrozim. As for the PGM'S in the ground...
If SBGL are successful in pulling this deal through it will be the best deal of the century.

I think Rastuss must have a love hate relationship with Lonmin as he clearly can't draw himself away from Lonmin...

Where will Sibanye get the money from to buy the assets? They will pull out all the stops to make sure that the takeover goes through as they are offering paper not cash. Lonmin has survived the low platinum price environment for quite some time. Best to wait for platinum price to rise and sell it for £1bn plus.

Lonmin does not need another bid. It will be fine on its own, as you say Rastuss Lonmin has pots of money everywhere...

If as you say they have got pots of money all over the place they will be just dandy...

Rastuss you are correct in your assumption that I am not implying that counsel is lying as Lonmin has been restricted financially in the past and that they have done as much as possible for the workers and community considering the restraints it has been under. Shareholders have stumped up a lot of cash and at this moment in time I feel it would be stupid to throw in the towel. Lonmin has been battling on the ropes for a long time but is still standing. You, unlike myself have a defeatist attitude and all is lost, a position you have had for some time yet we are still here and Lonmin is still mining and producing PGM's.
I, unlike you have a vested interest in Lonmin. I would like to see it prosper for the benefit of all stakeholders. You on the other hand would like to see it fail for a reason you wish not to share with this board...

The offer according to Rastuss was an option for SBGL. However the way things have transpired it is better for LMI to go it alone imho. The offer was based on £1.00 but because SBGL's share price have nearly halved since then we are valued at less than 50. Since then the bp has increased, finance has been sorted and now at last they seem to be able to control the aisc better. Unless SBGL up the offer they can go and foxtrot as far as I am concerned.

The new S.A guy (Dr. Ronnie) sitting next to his co Board will probably do the same as his predecessor and keep quiet about a possible bid... They are in a position now to put an offer on the table and let the shareholders decide and let it be their decision rather than the Boards. I would be confident that if they now offered 250 per share it would probably be accepted.

What is the point in discussing the covenants now as they are no longer an issue... This has been the argument of the short holders to scaremonger investors into selling. They have refinanced albeit on more expensive terms it has negated the issue of the covenants and under circumstances where LMI were not saddled to SBGL would have resulted in a rerating of Lonmin. Coupled with the fact of a higher bp and lower costs the Lonmin share price would be substantially higher than where it is now. Bar platinum the PGM'S are doing rather well, its just a matter of time until platinum rises and when it does it won't be a few percent...
If Lonmin is really in a "parlous and perilous" financial situation it is rather anomalous to think that they have been leant $200m. I am sure that the lenders did their due diligence don't you?

The covenant conditions were ludicrous. Having a stipulation that the book value be above £1.2bn when the Mkt cap is £120m. Why do you think they wrote the assets down?
Everything was written down. For example how much was the stake in Petrozim valued at? How much do you think it would cost to recreate the assets LMI have. I can tell you it will be a lot more than £120m.
Yes I will be voting against the merger. It's nothing more than daylight robbery... When Platinum increases Lonmin shares will rise exponentially.

How do you know the trades were sold TLW? They could have been delayed buys.

Rastuss in all fairness you have been touting that LMI will not be a going concern for a very long time. It will be a going concern in 3 months time. I am afraid that you are wrong yet again. I don't know why somebody with no financial interest in a company would put so much time and energy in denigrating it.
The share price would be considerably higher if it wasn't aligned to SBGL. They have had a torrid year with regards to fatalities, concerns with regards to being highly leveraged and a poor performance from the gold mines amongst others...
Lonmin's ability to refinance, reduce costs coupled with their safety record is positive. If PGM's rise LMI will be worth a lot more than £130m.

My thoughts exactly Whatamess...
Covenants are no longer an issue anymore Rastuss.
At this stage Sibanye needs Lonmin more than Lonmin needs Sibanye.
The Lonmin board need to consider the best outcome for its long term suffering shareholders whom have pumped lots of money into the business. Saddling Lonmin with Sibanye is NOW not in the best interests for the shareholders imho.

LMI must be profitable with palladium over 16,000 Zar... All the others have been increasing too. The bp is increasing and LMI are reducing costs. If this continues LMI will be very profitable and can go it alone... Platinum is still up considering the reduced diesel car sales in the U.K.

With regards to Laird you can not forget the 4 for 5 rights issue at 85p which were offered in April 2017. The sole global coordinator and joint book runner was jp Morgan. Interestingly enough they were up on the SPI bid at yesterday's opening. They may know something...

I am a little more optimistic than you Greenwolf as I think the range is 225-275.

Yes it is Ta. LMI would be considerably higher.