Member Info for 100notout

In all fairness Rastuss, with regards to Lonmin literally you state that every quarter will be bad. Lonmin has $114m net cash and some more to come soon... It's rather disappointing that you have to constantly see the negative and not the positive.
The cop for this quarter at R11,617 was better than most thought and the management have learnt that it is better to not over promise which they were guilty of in the past. It is encouraging that they have over delivered on what they previously set out. Onwards and upwards...

I was being cautious Whatamess... and agree that it is now the SBGL price holding us back.
If the Lonmin management had any balls they would go back to Froneman and renegotiate the deal as it was based on the SBGL price being at R16 as opposed to the current price of 10.8.
I remember that somebody here suggested Rastuss worked for SBGL. It makes you wonder doesn't it...

Yes Ta, I personally think that if it wasn't tied to the sbgl price it would be at the very least in the 80s. Sbgl are getting a steal...

This should underpin the share price if the merger were to fail. I would have thought that Lonmin are now in a positive position going forward. The share price should be a lot higher as we are not restricted by the ridiculous covenant conditions that were attached with the previous financing. Onwards and upwards from here.
The results were most certainly better than most predicted. The company should be valued a lot higher than £150m imho especially with the cop of R 11,617 which is very good as you point out Ta.

Is £150m. They have just reported that they have net cash of $114m plus the money from petrozim to come and other investments basically meaning that Sibanye are getting the mining assets for free.
I think it would be better to admit when you're wrong Rastuss. It would appear that its in your interest that Lonmin failed and unfortunately for you they haven't...

The journalists, it must be said seem very dubious.
As for "It should be noted, that, the living conditions of workers and the broader community, especially when contrasted with the wealth generated by the mine, led to the MFSA approaching the High Court of Mafikeng."
Wealth generated by the mine... Which planet is this chap living on!!! Can someone show him Lonmin's accounts for the last 5 years... I think even the worst of barristers could get this motion thrown out of court.

I will continue to hold Spire too. It has been manipulated by hedge funds and they will continue to play around with it until they get bored and move on to their next victim.
Mediclinic are seen as the most likely suitor to take over Spire but will there will be others watching closely, among others private equity groups.
Note Marshal and Wave and GSA have reduced their short position.

£432m for a 29.9% stake in Spire. That was 360p per share only 3 years ago.
Total MKT CAP of spire just over £500m.
I think they will want to pick up the remaining 70%.
Like I said before in my opinion this has been set up for a takeover. This time round I would expect the offer to be tilted in favour of more shares to cash although they might offer an all share deal. Note that brokers are currently trying to increase the mediclinic share price and knock the Spire price to make an all share offer seem better... Another S.African company Sibanye offered an all share deal to buy Lonmin. Lets wait and see. GLA holders.

That target could come before 6 months Ta...
Lets hope they rise with the same intense they fell.

Lets hope so Whatamess and a lot higher than that in the medium term...

Yes Ta - I wonder when some of the shorts will close out here. They may wait until the 18th October but I suspect they will start to buy back before because it is more than likely that when they get approval both share prices will rise a fair bit...

Are often wrong...
I remember being at a fine wine tasting organised by a leading wine broker where they had some of the wine makers present. There happened to be a group from a well known hedge fund surrounding a famous St.Emillion table exclaiming how fantastic and amazing the wine was and quoting Robert Parker's (wine journalist) remarks. The wine maker came towards me (most probably because of the surprised expression on my face). He asked for my opinion and I replied that the wine is corked or it is suffering from Brett. He asked for my glass and swirled and took a sniff. He agreed that the wine was corked. The hedge fund boys rather liked it... Even though the wine smelt like manure they were happy to follow the crowd...

Suitors can offer what they want but it doesn't mean the Board will accept it. I very much doubt they would accept an offer of £2.00. They will look at the mid and longer term picture of the company. The share price is where it is because ego's have been dented from fund managers to analysts. Mediclinic previously took advantage of the drop in the share price and offered at the time the equivalent of £3.15 in a mix of cash and shares. It's more than likely that they will use this fall as another opportunity to make another offer but the mix will probably be more slanted to a higher level of shares rather than cash.

I bid does look highly likely at the current price. The last offer from Mediclinic is the equivalent of 285 based on 165p in cash and 0.2711 in MDC shares. If they put this bid in now would the board agree?

Interestingly enough GSA are shorting Spire and have increased their short position as of last notified date of 4th Oct. They were the same outfit who were shorting Laird before they had a takeover offer. I wouldn't be surprised if they had an ulterior motive...

Has to be seen as positive.

Grumps1 - I think its a combination of the Jeffries downgrade and Marshall wace increasing their short position. It looks as though this is being set up for a takeover imho...

Petrozim is valued at nil. The stake is being sold because NOIC want to buy it. It was hardly a firesale and was welcomed by investors. Lonmin is not worth billions anymore and does not have the luxury to hold onto non core assets.
Sibanye are interested in the mines, furnaces etc and would welcome more cash on the books rather than a few small investments. As for shareholders most of them probably didn't realise they had them in the first place and welcome additional funds going forward.

Yes, you are quite right with regards to Mr,Micawber... I think you can compare Lonmin shareholders to his long term suffering wife Emma. She always said 'I will never desert Mr Micawber' after literally pawning everything else off to save him...

They should have been more open with regards to other holdings. At this rate all the investments they are selling off will be worth more than the current market cap...