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Broker tips: Johnston Press, Direct Line, Hikma Pharmaceuticals

Thu, 04th Aug 2016 11:01

(ShareCast News) - Johnston Press shares plunged on Thursday as Numis placed its rating and target price 'under review' after the company swung to a first half loss.For the 26 weeks to 2 July, the company posted a statutory pre-tax loss of £183.7m versus a £2.2m profit the year before, as it booked a £183.6m non-cash impairment reflecting a change of assumptions on its publishing titles and print assets.Advertising revenues were down 17.9% in the first quarter but improved marginally, with a 15% drop in the second quarter despite the impact of the run-up to and uncertainty following the UK's vote to leave the European Union in June.Chief executive Ashley Highfield said the market continues to be challenging and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Brexit negotiations has caused further softness in some segments of the advertising market, in June and July.Numis said the half year results came in below its estimates at every level."Our key issue at Johnston remains debt which has risen to £209m (from £179.4m) representing almost 4x our annualised EBITDA."This material debt pile, relative to cashflows, in combination with the declining and uncertain trading environment place a significant question mark on the equity value in the business."Numis said it expects to cut estimates "reasonably sharply" in both fiscal years 2016 and 2017. Direct Line Insurance Group's rating has been downgraded to 'hold' from 'buy' by Berenberg as the broker said "questions remain about earnings sustainability"."We believe there is some risk regarding the sustainability of Direct Line's earnings," Berenberg said in a note on Wednesday."High reserve releases, lower than forecast cost savings and a shrinking direct market all cast doubt on future earnings."Berenberg said older accident years have been incredibly profitable for Direct Line but these years are now contributing increasingly less releases.The broker said it does not expect to see the same developments in more recent accident years. Berenberg believes it will be difficult for management to offset falling reserve releases with the current accident year and operating improvements."As reserve releases decline, we expect earnings to be flat at best, thus we believe it will be challenging to grow the dividend from here," the broker said.Berenberg reiterated a target price of 406p.Direct Line on Tuesday posted its half year report for the six months to 30 June on Tuesday. Operating profit fell 5% to £316.9m, hurt by lower investment gains and the new Flood Re levy, but the group beat its own consensus estimates of £263m. Analysts at Citi downgraded their recommendation on shares of Hikma Pharmaceuticals in the wake of the company´s trading update which was issued after the close of trading in London on 3 August.Hikma flagged new drug approvals were arriving more slowly than expected and the phasing of litigation costs at US generics.On the basis of the above, the broker´s analysts lowered their recommendation on the shares from 'buy' to 'neutral' and set a target price of 2,600p.They also lowered estimates for the drugmaker´s core 2016 earnings before interest and taxes and earnings per share by 9.0% to $367m and $1.08, respectively - below the equivalent figures of $420m and $1.22 expected by the consensus.EPS estimates from 2017 onwards were cut by between 2% and 5% from 2017 onwards, with rates in foreign exchange markets expected to be an "incremental headwind".What was Citi´s view? "Developments at US Generics at best can be described as a 'short term hiccup'. At worse, sentiment concerns around the revenue/margin potential from the Roxane pipeline will increase, which is not helped by the lack of clarity on the pipeline given commercial sensitivities until 2017."If one were to cut his Roxane pipeline estimates by half, that would lead to EPS downgrades of between -15.0% and -20.0%, Citi said.Citi estimated the company´s net present value (NPV) at 2,900p, with a weighted average cost of capital of 8.0%, a terminal growth value (the rate at which free cash flows are expected to grow for eternity) of 2.0% and cable´s exchange rate at 1.32.
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25 Feb 2016 09:36

BROKER RATINGS SUMMARY: Berenberg Downgrades Next To Hold From Buy

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18 Feb 2016 06:37

PRESS: Trinity Mirror To Launch New National Newspaper, 'New Day'

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17 Feb 2016 14:36

Trinity Mirror said to unveil new weekday tabloid

(ShareCast News) - Trinity Mirror, publisher of the Daily Mirror, will reportedly unveil a weekday tabloid called New Day this month. People close to the plans told Sky News the new paper was expected to launch on 29 February and will be priced at 25p versus the Independent's i newspaper which is pr

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12 Feb 2016 15:51

UPDATE 2-Presses to fall silent at UK's Independent as paper goes online-only

(Adds reaction) By Kate Holton and Paul Sandle LONDON, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Britain's Independent is to disappear from news stands next month after its owner took the left-leaning title online only, one of the first national newspapers in the world to buckle under pressure from the inte

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12 Feb 2016 12:43

PRESS: Lebedev Confirms Closure Of Independent Print Newspapers

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12 Feb 2016 12:26

Presses to fall silent at UK's Independent as paper goes online-only

LONDON, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Britain's Independent newspaper is to disappear from news stands next month after its Russian owner said the 29-year-old title would only publish online, in the starkest sign yet of the pressures weighing on the newspaper industry. The paper launched by a group of

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12 Feb 2016 12:15

Johnston Press agrees to buy Independent's budget sister title

Feb 12 (Reuters) - Britain's Johnston Press Plc said on Friday it has agreed to buy "i" newspaper, the cut-price sister paper of The Independent, for 24 million pounds ($35 million). Johnston, publisher of The Scotsman newspaper, is buying "i" from Independent Print Ltd, which is controlled

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12 Feb 2016 12:12

Johnston Press Confirms Deal To Buy 'i' Newspaper For GBP24 Million

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11 Feb 2016 13:54

UPDATE 2-Johnston Press in talks to buy Independent's budget sister title

* Johnston says in late-stage talks * Says price for Independent's i newspaper likely to be 24 mln stg * Deal would create Britain's fourth-largest print publisher (Adds detail, analyst comment, share price) By Rahul B and Esha Vaish Feb 11 (Reuters) - Britain's Johnston

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11 Feb 2016 11:08

Johnston Press confirms talks to buy i newspaper for £24m cash

(ShareCast News) - Johnston Press confirmed it is in late-stage discussions to buy the i newspaper from the publisher of the Independent, with a likely cash price of £24m. The regional news publisher, which last month said it would sell several of its non-core titles in order to focus on digital gro

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11 Feb 2016 07:47

Johnston Press Confirms Talks For GBP24 Million Bid For i Newspaper

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11 Feb 2016 07:14

Thursday newspaper round-up: Facebook, Johnston Press, steel industry

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11 Feb 2016 06:46

PRESS: Lebedevs Set To Sell 'i' Newspaper To Johnston Press - The FT

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