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LIVE MARKETS-2020 markets horoscope: slow and steady

Tue, 26th Nov 2019 10:23

* European stocks slide 0.1%
* Compass outlook disappoints, shares down 5.6%
* Trade-sensitive autos, mining, tech sectors retreat
* Travel & leisure sector set for worst day in 3 months

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters
stocks reporters and anchored today by Thyagaraju Adinarayan. Reach him on Messenger to share
your thoughts on market moves: rm://thyagaraju.adinarayan.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

2020 MARKETS HOROSCOPE: SLOW AND STEADY (1021 GMT)
Three months back recession fears were gripping financial markets amid U.S. yield curve
inversion and U.S.-China trade spat intensifying, fast forward to today, analysts and
strategists expect 2020 to be another good year with global stocks hitting fresh record highs,
profits improving (although only slightly) and there is no mention of the "R" word.

One of the Wall Street's biggest banks Goldman Sachs' 2020 predictions are:
* Another 10% rally for MSCI World
* Profits rising (+3% for Europe, +11% for Asia and +6% for U.S.)
* S&P 500 scaling a record 3400 pts, STOXX 600 record 420 pts
* German bund yield at 0%

"While the macro backdrop should be broadly favorable for equity markets and, in the absence
of a recession, profits are likely to grow, equities already appear to be pricing in a broad
economic recovery, following the rally in the past couple of months," GS strategists write in a
note.
What about the extended cycle?
GS says this cycle is likely to last longer for economies and equity markets than many
investors fear. But mirroring rest of the Wall Street's view, GS says there will be lower
returns in the rest of the cycle due as there is modest headroom for valuation expansion.
Part of the reason for lower returns is also the shrinking size of high growth (>8%)
companies globally. GS says the share of high growth companies has fallen from 40% in 2009 to
25% today.
GS predictions:

(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
*****


OPENING SNAPSHOT: EUROPE ON BACKFOOT; COMPASS DRAGS (0825 GMT)
European stocks are on the backfoot this morning with travel & leisure sector taking a
beating after caterer Compass Group's full-year outlook failed to impress investors,
sending its shares down 7%.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index is down 0.1%, largely dragged down by the travel &
leisure sector's 2.4% drop.
Among other movers, Faurecia's shares are rising 3% on its 2022 outlook, yes 2022!
The French car parts maker is targeting record sales, profits and cash generation in 2022 as a
result of its "strategy programme".
Irish building materials supplier CRH scaled a fresh three-year peak after its
guided full-year profit outlook above market expectations.

(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
*****

FUTURES INCH HIGHER ON TRADE HOPES (0754 GMT)
Stock futures point to a slightly higher open for Europe after yesterday's solid rally as
positive noise on trade from China helps bourses hold on to gains.
It's very quiet on the corporate front with very few earnings updates as we approach the
business end of the third quarter.
Dealers expect Compass to open 1% higher after the company, which provides meals for
office workers, reported strong margins. Irish building materials supplier CRH is seen
rising 1%-2% after its reassuring trading update showed it was on track to beat its full-year
profit obligations. Britain's Pets at Home Group is seen rising 5% on its upbeat
outlook.
M&A spree in Europe continues: Bloomberg reports that Europcar is drawing
interest from private equity players. It comes two weeks after a Reuters report that European
investment firm Eurazeo is exploring a partial or full sale of its near 30% stake in
Europcar. Europcar is seen rising 5%.
De La Rue is seen falling 7% on its plan to suspend dividend as its banknotes
printing unit struggles with depressed margins.


Headlines to digest:
Fiat, PSA tell employees they will sign merger agreement in coming weeks
India probe finds SKF, Schaeffler, Tata Steel units colluded on bearings prices
Enel raises the bar on earnings as it pledges to spend more on clean energy
Car parts maker Faurecia sees record sales and profits in 2022
Caterer Compass Group posts higher profit, warns on Europe performance
Just Eat-shareholder Cat Rock urges investors to back Takeaway.com deal
Pets At Home sees annual underlying pre-tax profit at top-end of market view
De La Rue to suspend dividend, review operations to cut costs

(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
*****

IT'S ALL ABOUT U.S.-CHINA TRADE, AGAIN (0628 GMT)
European stocks are seen extending their gains from Monday as U.S. and China "reached a
consensus" on resolving a number of relevant issues, yet again raising hopes for a quick
resolution to the 16-month trade spat between the world's top two economies.
Elsewhere, Wall Street closed at fresh record highs led by tech stocks and Alibaba's solid
Hong Kong market debut lifted sentiment in Asia.
"...they (trade deal progress) do tend to create a momentum all of their own, even when they
are denied, and no matter how cynical you are, it has tended to be a fool’s errand in standing
in the way of any move higher," CMC Markets' Michael Hewson says.
Financial spreadbetters IG expect London's FTSE to open 16 points higher at 7,412,
Frankfurt's DAX to open 28 points higher at 13,275 and Paris' CAC to open 10 points higher at
5,934.

(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
*****


(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Joice Alves, Julien Ponthus and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)

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*

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