RE: Favourable Italian Arbitration Decision31 Aug 2022 11:33
GreyPanther
Assuming payment of some tax, it probably comes to roughly £150m.
It's possible that some of the pre-award price of 7p included a small risked component for successful award i.e. what would the price have been with no OM decision on the horizon? However, personally, I think very little chance of success was priced in before.
Now at a market cap of £77m, as you say we have probably have around roughly £40m priced in. That's because the market is implying roughly a 25-30% chance of RKH ever seeing any money. One would not expect a 100% of the award to be priced in but only 25-30% - that seems very, very low by any calculation!
I guess it partly reflects the loss of faith in RKH's management team over many years. Once bitten, twice shy.
I think the market is far too negative and the award will be enforced and collected but time will tell.
All IMHO DYOR
Best
Happy
All IMHO DYOR
Happy