Galliford Try Share Price (GFRD)

I do not think they will hit 50p and I doubt,t even 60p surely the risk v reward v cash flow would balance out, and with the 194 million in the bank versus the company value of 60 million surely this would out weight the dangers by so much that it could not happen until more news comes out. but we do live in strange times.

I think they need to show a full year on their own with-profits and no losses.
I am tempted with the 194 million in the bank but 194 million in the bank means nothing to shareholders if you don,t see any of it.
Big risk if they pop out yet another loss next year.
They hope to get 10 million before tax if lucky and if everything goes right and no exceptional claims maybe 8 million after-tax they may pay out 3 million like a 3-4% payout.
Why risk it when banks and insurances are likely to pay out between 5% and 10% next year.
GFRD would actually make more money buying LGEN shares with the 194 million and getting 9.5% returns.
The best outcome is a takeover or merger.
let us hope the board is amazing and they get that 2% returns in 2022 onwards with no claims. then things could be very different.

In July, I said, "No guidance provided yesterday in spite of the claim that "productivity is close to normal". At the Sept finals report I'm expecting a kitchen sinking by management ahead of their own LTIP awards. I've decided to stay on the sidelines until another look after the Sept update."

Well there was no need for a kitchen sinking. The market did it for them.

LTIP Awards are part of the game management in all companies play. I watch them closely and step away if they look too generous. These awards represent 3% of today's market cap. That is rich so I don't need to look any deeper - I won't be getting involved here.

As usual the detail of the awards is kept under wraps until they vest, but I'd guess they have modest targets considering the current position of GFRD share price and the sector. Another 3% next year and the year after? That's equivalent to a dividend.

The sector operates on tight margins and lately few in the sector has achieved them. I don't pick out the team here as being any worse than average, but the best margin achieved (Bill has been here a few years) is 0.9% in the last 4 years and that was before exceptionals, so a 3% dilution in market cap for one years LTIP Awards looks at high for the sector.

In a normal market the weaker players in the sector would fold and margins would improve for the survivors. But that doesn't seem to be the way markets perform in this low interest environment. This sector seems to suffer worse that most.

Maybe there's something here for nimble traders, but not for this investor.

This might go down below 40p won’t really surprise me .
I bought 1.32p back in 3-4 months ago .

Who do you think is responsible for this the director doesn’t know how to play with 5.2b contract or the virus been around us?

If the director can start move his fingers then he is going to be very luck otherwise I can see him going very soon .

Check any build contractors ,tell me if anyone who has got 5.2b contract ?

The donkey needs so get on his feet’s ASAP or will be kicked out from the field .

yes 60p might well be a target low here. Even 50p is possible. The mkt does not like the company