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I agree that Octopus and Milton are off the radar (or at least under 3%) but I can see that we still have Jamieson Pension Fund @ 5.1% and James Turner @ 5.36% (although bought as private rather than through his other companies). It would be interesting to know their expectations.
Including the above there is only about 32% of shares available to retail holders (provided octupus and Milton cleared off completely)
Indeed if YU can stay as it is for 12 Month or more the Sp will be many multiples.
it would give me a nice profit so I couldn't complain too much but it would be a shame as this could be worth so much for in a few years.
Yes most iis sold out so it’s just the ceo.
An offer of 2.5-3 would be hard to say no.
Non of the IIs hold shares anymore Miton and octopus both sold out during the dark days of 2018.
Therefore no IIs to pacify.
" a good price where the company is currently". I think there lies the problem with a £2-2.5 prediction as the company at least structurally and strategically is in the best place it has been for years. BK would likely want rewarding well for his hard work to bring the business up to scratch and I don't think anything less than £5+ per share would cut it. Especially knowing that II's would get involved if they were going to lose at least 75% on their investments made in 2018 (£8-10 per share).
I could well be completely wrong but I am more than willing to hold and see what happens. Who knows, maybe one day we can celebrate £10 per share again.
£2-£2.5 would be a good price where the company is currently. Obviously when company goes back into turning profits £4-£5 will be a fair shout.
I would wonder whether the Institutional Investors would kick up a massive fuss if the bid was not up to or near where their (rather high) entry point was. I remember Gatemore giving the DX BoD a real hard time a few years ago about how money was being spent and the BoD were forced to change as naturally all the retail investors got behind them.
Ammu - That happens all the time on the markets so it would ordinarily be a good shout. However, the reason for that is that it is usually a significant pay day for those involved in the company who haven't got a significant stake in the company. What differs here is that we have an individual with half the company who will, in effect, dictate what the buyout price is. I'm betting on £2-£2.50 being pretty damn unacceptable to him. I can see him walking away at around £6 as that would be a very nice piece of business all round. £2 is derisory - he could have probably sold it at £2 when the wheels fell off and not had to have bothered with everything he has been through since.
I reckon it will be taken out for £2-£2.5 per share. Don’t think people who bought at £5 would be happy but that’s how it goes unfortunately
I hadn't really considered Yu being bought given that the offer would need to be huge compared to the current SP given that II's are still holding in volume about the £8 mark and Bobby wouldn't want to take a big hit vs the SP of 18 months ago.
little rumours have reach my ear, but will wait for the RNS it seems some have jumped the gun.
I've not heard anything but was going through smartest site only yesterday for a short while... buying energy via them should do wonders for providing ROCs going forward in the short term... Also, a good idea would be for smartest to just buy Yu like they did Dual and have Yu continue to run as Yu (as per Dual tie up). Dual/smartest started off with a working relationship much like Yu now has...
Results in a months time.
People taking positions maybe...
Has there been something released or some rumours floating about today?
Odd that buying/selling has been steady all week and suddenly £40k worth of buys (split between 5 trades) pop up in the last 30 mins.
Thanks SNN - nice summary. I currently have a similar average to you and I am looking to reduce it over the next 6 months. I shouldn't get so involved in the day to day SP because this is a slow burner but my main frustration comes from the fact I could have sold for 3p and doubled my money months ago. I was in it for the long haul then and I'm in for the long haul now.
AdamH - about on the right lines, towards the worse end of people's expectations (hopes?). Yes, as I and others have stated, the 2019 loss will be as you surmise.
Expectations for 2020 vary. I am now looking for a slightly better turnover than I previously envisaged and a slightly better gross margin, meaning I did previously expect another loss (say £2m - £3m), but now am gunning for breakeven ish (£1m loss to £1m profit). For 2021 the company will be in new premises, so have significantly more overheads, but turnover is looking to be very strong (more than £150m) and gross margins should be 12 - 14%. This should give eps north of 20, and on a PER of 20, a share price of 400p. When the market is more confident of this, the price will start to move. I consider it worth the wait and worth the weight (in gold?) And as we all know on here the share price rockets on opening as and when good news comes - you need to be in well before.
I am currently down (as mot are) on purchases of 132 and 119 but a very willing buyer at this price (funds permitting).
Good to see a nice balance of buying and selling holding the price firmly in the £1 range. We could just do with a little snippet of news to spice things up.
I have noticed that the recent board changes haven't resulted in any director buys being declared. Either they don't have the cash or are unable to buy given they are privy to information that could effect the share price (hopefully upwardly)
"A core indicator, Adjusted EBITDA, is improving in line with our plan and we are able to invest in our automated digital strategy. I'm confident we have weathered the storm and while we remain cognisant of lessons learned, we are now very much a forward-facing business. I look forward to a successful year.
I expect breakeven to be this year
House broker Shore Capital will revisit its earnings forecasts after the full year results are released on 31 March 2020. The broker expects Yu Group to return to profit later in 2020 with ‘positive free cash flow coming ahead of this’.
Adam you have summed it up quite well. Guess only the company know what the "market expectations" are because Shore Capital the house broker have not stated any recommendations. Many PIs expectations are for higher share prices during 2020 based on faith in the company's founder. GLA
"Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2019 expected to be at least in line with market expectations" - I want to know what this means? I haven't seen any indication of that market expectations are. Can anybody point me in the right direction? "H2 2019 losses significantly below the loss in H1 2019" So we know there is going to be a loss for the year but what is significantly below? SO we can expect the £2.7m loss for H1 and then a lower amount for H2. Something like £4m loss overall? Its not great really. It is an improvement on the previous year but not fast enough to raise the SP as fast as I initially thought. It'll take another 18 months minimum to start breaking even at the current rate.
£50.05 buyout, 0.471 ROC/MWh... up on the buyout, lower on the obligation...
lets keep our expectations low and if we get a nice little surprise its all good..
mcap of 13m for a company turn in over 100m is crazy.
Ammu123 I took them figures from 2016/2017 non adjusted accounts ? and my feeling is there's a message for the LTH to have some idea of the accounts 2019, and in the message it saying quite clearly gross margin. that would not be effected by the adjustment 2018 therefor the we should be looking for in access of 21.3% thats my take ? would love to here from other investors on this, as if this is correct then this is very important bit of forward looking news