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Started: Jennifer7, 13 Jun 2024 13:53
Last post: Srbenjo, 14 Jun 2024 17:12
I’ve topped up my holdings twice in the past month but unfortunately the share price continues to decline. I don’t believe it will last much longer, given the very optimistic comments published with the Final results back on March 19th (see below). The management seemed very positive and hopefully their optimism will be translated into solid growth when the next update is published, which I suspect will be late July.
Current trading and outlook
· Strong bookings and margin performance is continuing into 2024, despite lower commodity market environment.
· Expect to deliver organic growth of c. 50% in FY24 despite lower commodity prices:
o £520m contracted revenue at end of 2023 for FY24 delivery (2022: £247m for FY23), plus strong bookings momentum and further non-contracted book.
o Board targets significant market-share growth (from current 1.4%).
· The Board targets over 25,000 smart meters owned by the end of 2024 to provide benefits on customer lifecycle value, together with a recurring, index-linked, annuity income of c.£1m per annum.
· Strong profitability expected as the Group benefits from its well-hedged commodity position; investment in digital; expansion of smart meters; and service-led market positioning.
· Very strong operational cash generation forecasted for FY24, from EBITDA conversion to cash and the working capital benefits of the new trading agreement with Shell.
· Board confirms the intent to progressively increase dividend distribution, in a sustainable manner, as earnings grow whilst maintaining at least 3x cover on EPS in the short to medium term.
Do not get me wrong, I see huge things here just get frustrated sometimes as YU promise to keep us informed and fail time and time again. That director sell does not phase me but the timing sucked especially when they knew already knew no update until July. Poor IMHO as effects sentiment especially in AIM as to many bad eggs.
Once again Sparky all the family have used more of our ISA allowance to top up at 17.05 first thing this morning. We all intend to plough much of our dividends, which will be quite substantial, back into the stock. We remain very confident in the future.
Last post: sparky333, 14 Jun 2024 14:45
Year high not far away and PE 3 times that of YU. Incredible
Started: sparky333, 13 Jun 2024 08:50
Last post: sparky333, 13 Jun 2024 13:38
It all about investor confidence the directors selling has frighten a lot due to the they must know something.
I highly doubt that and expect earth shattering results yet again and another record breaking year
Sparks - yes, it is disappointing no update. The market at least needs reassurance that trading is ok. Even a brief 'in line with current expectations' is better than silence. There is reasonable comment with the full year RNS. The key word is 'momentum', which implies continued upwards trend. The AGM presentation, though lifted from March, re-affirms that position. The excuse given for lack of investor engagement previously was being too busy growing the business with a heads down graft. It is likely to be similar, with the new Shell deal and large increase in the meter engineer numbers (all need training and a new van to fit out etc).
As you say though, a long time till next news. SP likely to drift lower. Auto stop losses might get triggered again and make matters worse!
Because at this rate the decline will continue for weeks fundamentals being totally ignored as people now know they have 3-4 weeks maybe more before any firm news on performance.
I find it really poor yet again from YU others disagree but after 24 weeks of the year gone and nothing other than a few lines says 2024 started strongly. Complete radio silence, didn’t help with director sells as people read into that that they are aware of things we are not.
Started: sparky333, 12 Jun 2024 18:36
Last post: Ian53, 13 Jun 2024 07:23
It has to be approved by the Courts first. See RNS of 23rd May:
"Following the passing of resolution 9 in relation to the capital reduction process, the Company confirms that it will progress, subject to formal approval from the Court, the cancellation of the Company's share premium account which currently stands at approximately £12.28 million. It is currently expected that the hearing by the Court to confirm this capital reduction will take place on 2 July 2024 and that the capital reduction will become effective on 3 July 2024."
Correct me of wrong but have we not cleared through the last AGM the company to purchase shares through buy back with all the available cash..Would now not be an ideal time!!! Thank you.
Incredible how we can fall so much under such little volume, PE about to hit 8. Energy prices close to the year high and we languish with no investor interest and bored investors seeing better stuff around.
Started: sparky333, 5 Jun 2024 11:11
Last post: Srbenjo, 11 Jun 2024 19:26
I thought you may be interested to hear this re the next update for YU Group. I emailed investor relations this morning to ask when the next trading update would be as we had one at the end of May in each of the last 2 years.
I received a reply this afternoon that said “ Still to be confirmed, but the half year period closes at 30 June so one would expect an update to follow.”
So no update until July at the earliest then. Hopefully it will be a good one.
Indeed and probabaly why stocks like YU are totally dead at the moment, coupled with markets in free fall, Uk elections and complete radio silence from YU.
Like watching paint dry
Https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/gci/podcasts/growth-company-investor-is-back--082b887/
Conversation between David Thornton (Growth Company Investor) and John Hughman (Vox, ex Investors Chronicle). Some interesting comments on Nomads and lack of coverage on smaller companies.
Sparky,
While I usually agree with you on most matters I would like to offer my opinion here. If you look at the Final Results RNS of 19th March 2024 you will find a comprehensive (imo) Current Trading and Outlook section; this was less than 3 months ago. If you compare Trading Update dates for the similar period in 2023 (31st May and 25th July) I suggest that the company have a little while to go before they might be considered to be negligent in keeping shareholders / stakeholders informed. Personally I believe the current weakness in the share price is more to do with MMs playing games; if I could predict the ups and downs of this share I would be more than happy to operate a buy/sell/buy system, but It's too risky for me. I will continue to hold; there are a few more 'bags' left from the current share price before I intend selling.
Cannot understand any reasons why they would do this?
Started: sparky333, 3 Jun 2024 10:14
Last post: sparky333, 3 Jun 2024 10:14
90p a therm now was 56p this time last year.
Started: NewGacky, 31 May 2024 16:17
Last post: sparky333, 3 Jun 2024 09:29
Most of the engineer posts have been filled only 10 left.
ITs great having targets but the industry has a real shortage of engineers to carry out the installations
Fascinating if that’s the case numbers will be literally blown out of the water and no reason a TU should not be issued ASAP. Do you have a link to Gervais video ? Ta
NG - Thanks for the posts. That presentation is the AGM presentation referred to in the last RNS. Yu have done this for a good few years. The slides are lifted from the March results presentation, so no real new info.
Interesting to know they are still pitching to institutions. This slightly baffles me, as there is no float for them to buy into, and can only surmise they are building up to a placing of some of BKs shares at some point. Otherwise, why all this effort? But can't see it happening until the price reflects a fuller value of the company.
IR said to me the rough plan was to follow last year's outline - which I took to mean a TU 2-3 weeks after the AGM. If new bookings have taken off, then like last year, they perhaps need some time to crunch the numbers to issue new guidance.
Also, of note, is how they are flagging the capital reduction on the calendar. Suggests they may do something quite promptly once granted - an extra dividend, or a buyback. And the better the current year is going, the more they will be willing to pay out!
There is a new investor presentation on the Yu Group website that is dated May 2024. On the Investor section/AGM and Investor Presentation. It all reads very positively, talking about a strong start to 2024 and the maintaining of margins in-line with managements expectations. This has been presented to a number of institutions in the city over the last couple of weeks, some analysts have been spoken to for the first time. One note that I have read has talked about medium term target of 7-8%!! This I feel is very significant as Liberum's note of 19/3/24 was still talking about a medium term market share target of 5%. Is 5% now too close to be considered to be a target? 5% is 165,000 meters in the total addressable market. The company is also talking about 125k smart meters on the wall by 2026, another new target. 125k smart meters would bring in £5m pa at £40 revenue per meter per year. Hopefully the TU will drop next week and we will get some new broker notes out.
Started: NewGacky, 31 May 2024 16:58
Last post: NewGacky, 31 May 2024 16:58
I also listened into a presentation this week by Gervais Williams of Premier Miton. He was discussing his Diverse Income fund, and in his view although He's had Yu Group in his small cap and micro cap funds for along time he only put Yu group into DIVI.LN last year. It has more than doubled, but he feels the company should be 3 to 5 times higher than the current price. He mentioned that the previous hedging deal had been putting the brakes on growth due to the collateral that needed to be posted and since the new deal with Shell the amount of new business that has been written has been explosive. Maybe this is why the company feels they need to move up their medium term target for market share from 5% to 7-8%. 7.5% of the total meters in the B2B market would be 250k, if that was hit then the turnover would be around £3bn pa!! I can see why Gervais feels this stock is totally undervalued at the current share price!! Hope everyone has a good weekend and fingers crossed for a TU and some new broker notes out next week. I think that some numbers in the market need some serious updating.
Started: Howardzzz, 31 May 2024 07:16
Last post: SMT1, 31 May 2024 12:13
Sparky, I thought a trading update is only issued when performance is significantly above or below forecasts. Therefore, I'm not sure we will get one.
Also worth keeping a close eye on gas futures and spot price, currently 85p a therm massively ahead of this time in 2023, the predicated fall hasn’t to date occurred which implies to me Libs numbers are way under
agm was a week later than the previous year. if no tu 5 months of the trading year done and dusted i will be pretty ****ed as h1 will not come out until mid sept which quite frankly is not acceptable 9 months into the year
No trading update today ? Always been released on 31 May in previous years ?
Started: enzo88, 23 May 2024 12:43
Last post: sheltie, 30 May 2024 10:40
Given that YU has gone ex-dividend today, this is a pretty good effort so far. . .
Thanks ipcutler66. I'm happy with 37p but salivating at the thought of £1 dividend!
FY23 dividend was 40p - 3p paid at interim and the 37p just declared.
FY24 could be substantial more -we have a large cash pile. A declared policy as follows
"Board confirms the intent to progressively increase dividend distribution, in a sustainable manner, as earnings grow whilst maintaining at least 3x cover on EPS in the short to medium term."
Should lead to a significant increase this year, I am hoping for £1+
On top of this there may well be a special dividend of up to circa 70p/share when the court approves the cancellation of the share premium account on July 2nd(hopefully).
All in all it is looking like a very good year for YU and we will start getting confirmation when the next TU drops, as @SNN says possibly next Tuesday or sometime early June at the latest.
Enzo88,
this link might help:
https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/ex-dividend-date-search.py?searchTerm=YU.
HL does it for you - 2.20%
That figure will increase each time as the company have stated that it is progressive.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/y/yu-group-plc-ordinary-0.5p
Started: Brucebanner, 29 May 2024 15:16
Last post: Brucebanner, 29 May 2024 15:16
-9 from 20/5...Has to help the MMs somehow I doubt they forgot.
Started: Jennifer7, 23 May 2024 09:16
Last post: daveboy19, 23 May 2024 11:13
Jennifer7,
I don't think they will, as these are more stringent on whom they allow an account/what they allow to be posted.
That's why you get more garbage merchants on there.
Hi Fidra, I am not going to the AGM. I am just looking forward to the end of May trading update. Hopefully it will drop a week today.
Sparky I just hope that crackpot doesn't use this forum. I've banned the other's use by all the family. Myself, my wife, son & daughter have all used much of our this year's ISA allowance picking up shares at just £16.80 a couple of weeks ago when the price dropped. We all have a fair shareholding now. Thanks for all your posts on this new site for me.
Started: sparky333, 23 May 2024 10:56
Last post: sparky333, 23 May 2024 10:56
Gas spot price now 87p a therm year high v 57p this time last year and also the winter months futures contracts are all way over 100p a therm.
Who would have thought it, everyone expected a drop in 2024 but the opposite is happening
Started: daveboy19, 21 May 2024 19:17
Last post: daveboy19, 22 May 2024 18:23
Ok, maybe not - what do I know, lol !
Perhaps tomorrow instead ;)
Worth noting the gas price throughout 2024 we are now pushing a year high not seen since Dec 23.
Especially as article in energylive yesterday record levels of business energy switching with the large players which YU now is taking a lot of medium/ smaller clients
Great day, top riser and then 3050 purchased after the bell @ 1850p - a good sign for tomorrow.
GLAGI.
Started: NewGacky, 17 May 2024 11:49
Last post: ShareNicelyNow, 19 May 2024 23:51
Actually, just gone through all the options, PR is in fact left with a sizable holding of nearly 300,00 in shares and vested options not yet exercised, (per RNS) plus 187,000 options still to vest (RNS 20.12.22), so just under 500,000 all in. No doubt future options will be awarded too. Therefore, the definitive conclusion is there is no cause for concern.
I too am intrigued what they will do with the share premium account. If it were my decision, about half as a special dividend (35p a share) and perhaps a smallish buyback later on after H1 results if the SP is still sub £20 (with the aim of lifting the SP, rather than boosting eps).
IPC - some did vest in April 2023, and a similar amount vests in April 2024 from the same award. See directors report section. Also, as said, note 24 of the AR lists all the options outstanding. BK has 567,062 to take, once vested there is a wide window in which to claim them. They are not forced to sell them once they're exercised, they could keep them to sell at a later date.
Not sure about the tax treatment. Has someone mentioned CGT? They might in fact be taxed as income at the exercise date? I often see directors selling half the option shares on getting them to cover 50% income tax.
From the Directors' Report -
Of the share options outstanding to executive directors at 31 December 2023:
76,612 for Bobby Kalar and 57,463 for Paul Rawson vested in April 2023 following achievement of certain performance targets.
Such share options are at an exercise price of par value of the shares, being £0.005.
326,617 for Bobby Kalar and 244,463 for Paul Rawson are conditional on achieving certain performance targets linked to the Group’s
share price or profitability. Such performance share options vest to the extent such targets are met and are at an exercise price of the
par value, being £0.005.
7,894 for each of Bobby Kalar and Paul Rawson options are granted under the Group’s 2022 SAYE scheme, at an exercise price of £2.28
per share.
No non-executive director holds share options in the Company.
During the period, the executive directors did not exercise any share options, and were not granted any new options.
@SNN / Sparky - The more I think about the options the more I am happy with what how they have handled the option sale. The options are vested to reward results and share price growth - these were vested if my memory serves me correctly for hitting about £6 in 2023 - do correct me if I am wrong.
With the SP north of £17 it has certainly been a good few years for share holders and I think that if the directors want some good returns then I have no issue with that. The purchase by the treasury is again a useful exercise - as you say covers the next batch of share options as and when they are exercised.
Hopefully this week we will get shareholder approval for the cancellation of the share premium account and can then move on to get court approval in time for early July - will be really interesting to see what they then do.
What I think is interesting, and hopefully confirms the 31/05 as a TU date, is the RNS came out on the 17th - exactly 14 days before a Trading update.....
Sparks - on balance, I think you're right. But nonetheless, will create general uncertainty / anxiety until any TU. IR said to me they are roughly intending to follow last year's pattern - ie a TU is expected 2 - 3 weeks after the AGM. This was not a 100% guarantee there will be a TU, just a generalisation.
Now we are 3 months into the Shell deal, if going well, then a TU shortly and revised broker numbers would be most welcome. Last May's update was quite material, following a detailed management review (per RNS). Hoping for something similar.
Thanks for your views SNN always well thought out. Friday was a great example of how PR at YU is awful and the Achilles heel of the SP.
Investors cannot see the bigger picture and seeing the timing and CFO selling just prior to an AGM and radio silence from the company 5.5 months into the trading years rightly has spooked a few.
I am the complete opposite never a good time for a CFO to sell but if the company comes out with poor numbers his reputation and YUs reputations and BKs fortune will be in absolute tatters and one is a mistake a twice is stupidity.
Therefore numbers will be knocked out of the park as BK would know what is happening with the sales and content the next update will be fantastic.
Started: Srbenjo, 17 May 2024 10:52
Last post: Srbenjo, 18 May 2024 21:57
Thanks for your replies. Hoping for another good update and a corresponding rise in the share price.
Thanks Treven, but that meeting is the AGM. Last year the Trading update came 13 days after the AGM, and I am expecting similar this year. The year before, 2022, they did them together. However, the financial calendar is indicating this is not going to happen in 2024.
The next meeting is scheduled on the 23-th of May. See the link below:
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uk-shareholder-meetings-calendar-next-7-days-vj8eal90adyi63x.html
At the very bottom.
Srbenjo, I think we will get a May trading update on Thursday 30th May.
There's an AGM RNS logged for 23 May, in Share News. Previously they gave a T/U on 31 May 2023 so fingers crossed.
Started: iliyanvelikov, 17 May 2024 12:15
Last post: iliyanvelikov, 17 May 2024 12:15
I have used the drop in SP to top up today at 1632p. I am expecting a return to 2000p pretty soon.
Started: sparky333, 17 May 2024 11:03
Last post: SMT1, 17 May 2024 11:17
My opinion is better to do it before any trading update, which I now expect to be a blockbuster. Share price will reach £20 after the update & the sells would have been forgotten.
the directors at yu certainly know how to **** of investors and crash the sp.
Started: daveboy19, 16 May 2024 15:52
Last post: daveboy19, 16 May 2024 15:52
Just had another look on the Yu jobsite - they have filled loads of dual meter engineering jobs. There was nearly 70 on there for a fair while and now there is just 14. That's an excellent sign for them moving forward in the remainder of 2024 and 2025, judging by what they have already achieved and their stated target. Very exciting what they can do now.
Understate and then over deliver perhaps...
Started: sparky333, 16 May 2024 09:49
Last post: sparky333, 16 May 2024 15:51
Totally agree, some food for thought the predicated fall in energy spot prices in 2024 has yet to materialise in fact it is actually higher than 2023 which is ironic and already probably throws broker estimates numbers out of the window
HI Sparky,, I tend to agree with you but I also think the management team are focused on the longer term and bigger picture - I fully expect to see a TU update at the end of the month and in line with the comments in the Finals in March I expect it to be very positive again. The management are delivering the business, the market (mainly some PI's) are not patient enough to wait for the rewards. They have been trying to bring on board more II's but with the lack of any TR1's suggest that this is proving difficult due to the low liquidity to get any significant holding - will BK consider selling some - I don't think so not for a couple of years when the price is where he believes its value is. Whatever happens this is a cracking company, delivering amazing results and room for significant growth from here even for new investors - they just need to be patient like we have all been.
It’s in that no man’s land, until we get a TU just like last year. Really annoyed at management yet again. They learned nothing from last May.
I fully expect business is booming but over 5 months into the year we should have a pretty good insight but radio silence yet again
Yes, 37p is quite a chunk. Any one thinking of buying or selling, should consider the dividend being in the share price - ie, knock it off!
SP probably now in one of its usual consolidation phases, range trading in a wide £3 - £4 band (£16 to £20). Will need a good TU with uplifted full year forecasts to push us to new highs.
Started: sparky333, 14 May 2024 17:25
Last post: sparky333, 14 May 2024 17:25
is someone taking the **** ?
Started: Steve077, 9 May 2024 08:08
Last post: daveboy19, 10 May 2024 20:48
Nice find - they don't really know that much about Yu specifically (he used the term 'homeowners', plus figure accuracy), but they know what a cracking company looks like and can see where the fundamentals lead us to.
Quite exciting when such individuals look over and sort of just say wow. Plus things will only get more stronger in the future as even more cash splurges in.
BK isn't even 50 yet, he might be more interested in running a successful company for many more years rather than selling up.
£52 isn’t unreasonable when they hit £1b turnover
800m MC
Hi Callit, appreciate your thoughts.
I have seen a valuation of £52, anyone can dream.
SP Angel still have £19 until next update.
Inclined to think Bobby Kalar will make full use of the link up with Shell and disregard any offers until he hits some more personal goals. He's done well to lift this share from £1 to £19
I'm looking forward to the year ahead.
As you say DYOR
Last post: Howardzzz, 8 May 2024 19:11
Did today's sharp fall have any connection with a parliamentary session about energy ? A leading newspaper: "Mr O’Shea, the chief executive of British Gas-owner Centrica, told MPs on the Commons energy select committee: 'We think that in order to have the proper smart grid that’s required to keep costs low in the future, everybody should have a smart meter'."
100% agree and yes today was a massive attack on stops which cascaded and way way way over done.
PE in the 8 range now, incredible MC down to 270m and we could have way over 40 % of MC in cash this year
Octopus is in the news today as major holders upped their stakes.
Has there been any hint that they may tackle the business market? I can't see anything, but the holdings was US news and the drop in Yu was just after US market open.
I can't see anything Starmer has said that would cause a drop.
Irrespective of today, I would still like to see a move to the Main Market myself . . . this company is simply too good for the total nonsense that goes on when listed on AIM.
Well that was fun tree-shake! It sure as hell wasn't anything to do with a Director selling! I personally can only assume that a Market Maker has an order which he/she cannot, at present fulfill; hence 'shaking the tree' to encourage panic sells. Which they duly mop-up. Tomorrow will be really intriguing. ATB
Started: ShareNicelyNow, 5 Apr 2024 23:51
Last post: ShareNicelyNow, 8 May 2024 13:03
I have been in contact with IR.
There will be no trading update with the AGM. The IR website calendar has been corrected and now reads "AGM and AGM Results Statement" (ie results of the voting).
The next officially expected trading update is therefore after H1, normally in late July. However, they may update the market, similar to last year, with an RNS at the end of May / early June.
Thanks again for the info.
Good problems to have whatever they eventually decide to do. Exciting as AGM/TU approach and I can see continued interest as new ISA allowances arrive before the ex-divi date end of May.
Technical correction - group reserves are £34.855m, but the 'company' reserves' are only £22.318m. It is the underlying company which pays dividends etc, and which needs enough reserves to cover the dividends! So distributable reserves will be roughly £34m once the share premium account is cancelled, and £28m once the interim dividend is paid. See page 80 of the Annual Report.
Sorry Dave. No can do! Reserves are £34,855,000 plus share premium of £11,909,000, so say £47m. They are clearly hinting at distributing some (or all) of the share premium total. I think we could cautiously pencil in about half of it, which is around 35p per share. Not forgetting, that if 2024 eps is at the 300p mark (NG points out it could be higher), then at 3 times coverage, there's another £1 in dividends for 2024. That then leaves a good £2 per share spare, for then another special dividend.
Basically, going forwards, they can afford annual dividends of at least £2 per share (normal and special), so we are on a dividend yield of roughly 10%. (Assuming no acquisitions)
Website now shows the AGM date on their calendar, and indicates a 'statement' - presumably a TU.
I went a bit dizzy when he said they could do a '£5 divi with all that cash if they wanted to and that would be transformational'!!
Started: ShareNicelyNow, 30 Apr 2024 10:24
Last post: daveboy19, 30 Apr 2024 15:10
Yep, they muck about with it most days tbh for some time now.
We all know what's coming and so do they, so let them do their games. It's all quite amusing same as the de-ramping trolls on the other bb.
Good signs really when both things occur in tandem!
1844/1840 now up to 1K then more to buy but same to sell...
*buy
False prices at the mo, its £18.47 to but £15k
Reminder -
"The Board therefore recommends the payment of a final dividend of 37p per share, being c.£6.2m payable on 20 June 2024. The shares will go ex-dividend on 30 May 2024 and the record date is 31 May 2024."
37p is quite a chunk. Any one thinking of buying or selling, should consider the dividend being in the share price - ie, knock it off!