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Isn’t that the point of an independent evaluation for Bushranger?
Once the mine has been valued independently (SP not relevant), then the negotiations with AA start. If they don’t like it, walk away.
If the SP doesn’t reflect anyway near to what Bushranger has been independently valued at that point, then that’ll make it harder to discuss with other interested bids post AA clause (if that stage is reached)
Just my take on it.
You may well be right A4444
I still feel a concerted PR effort would be worth it, even if, as you say, it only gets us to ~10p its still welll worth while before starting negotiations.
Far better to be @~10p and asking for ~2.5 times that (~25p) than @~5p asking for 5 times the SP.
i'd have given the below stevemocol response 2 tick ups instead of 1 if I could, in fairness.
Stevemocal...... Best response yet.
Maybe I'm oversimplifying the reason for the lack of sp appreciation, but I think its just down to institutional investors waiting for a JORC. They dont want to take any risks and will be happy to pay a premium for substantial less risk after a JORC or more "big picture" data.
A PR offensive will get a few more retails investors interested, but that wont be the catalyst for the 10p+ rerate imho.
Ted - Thanks for replying.
We differ in that you are happy to accept high risk for higher grades and I am the opposite. For me the risk factor is hugely underestimated when assessing value and not just by you but by many XTR investors too. Just imagine if you could 'lift and shift' the Josemaria project to Bushranger, with a third the capex, less time to production and in a jurisdiction where you can be confident you'll be able to mine the thing dry without the risk of any political upheaval pulling the rug from under you... what is that worth to a major? Mining a porphyry system is a 25, 50 or even 100 year commitment and, as such, an asset located in Oz is, IMO, worth many times a like-for-like asset located in South America.
As for you liking to be proven right... you haven't been. There is at least another 5-6 months of the Bushranger story to go before you could make that call. Besides, there is no kudos in picking a loser in an industry where most companies end up losing! If you post on all the boards of junior mining companies saying their projects are doomed to fail, then you are going to be right almost all of the time. If that is enough to satisfy your un-pope-like-ego, then fill your boots I guess. However, if you really want to show people how 'right' you are, you need to pick a winner... so how about telling us where you have invested instead instead of XTR and we can compare notes in 6-12 months time?
I want Iceberg to be very right and Ted very wrong.. and my instinct is that Ted will be, at least, pretty wrong in the end and Iceberg, at least, pretty right in the end.... but right now the market is, hands down, saying Ted is very right and Iceberg very wrong, alas.
(Again, the Africa businesses are 3 to 4p of this s/p price imho.. so Bushranger valuation, with a potential big sale event but a few months away, remains still atrociously low, alas)
So , as CE says, CB clearly needs to do much more to wake the market up to the greatness of the asset he tells us he has in Bushranger.. I think, altogether, in due course, he can/will do that...but the Open Pit Project might well be plenty slower to get to his readily achievable copper target than he has expected for eg a fair few months ago, i'm now fairly confident.. and before Ascot was known about, that Open Pit Project was his sure thing here.. so I'm not surprised the market remains extremely cautious on Bushranger for now.. but hopefully that will change soon enough .. However, CB likely - imho - sitting on a bunch of assay results for whatever tactical reasons is certainly not going to help wake this s/p up meaningfully imho.
More generally, I'm fine with being patient here and I'm altogether confident we're on at least a decent winner with Bushranger.. and -hopefully- maybe a big winner.
Totally agree JDAU, I for one welcome the critics, after all, their opinions are just as valid as any one else’s. However they may differ from the majority.
It gives us an opportunity to stretch our legs occasionally in replying and remind ourselves in doing so, why we invest our time and money in xtract. Even if listening to the latest interview is not enough to get you pumped up.
https://audioboom.com/posts/8019563-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr
See how I cleverly worked that into the chat. For the casual onlooker or anyone that missed it. Possibly even ted/porv
For what it’s worth, I don’t agree that “ignoring them completely” is the right way forward.
Call these posters out on their nonsense, post the facts and challenge the rubbish, otherwise they just get to post what they like unchallenged as though it’s fact.
Just my two cents…
Hi Guys, I cannot understand why you are replying to porv stoking the embers he is trying to light. Third parties, whether they are shorters or market makers have their own hidden objectives. It has been proven time and time again the best way to deal with such posters is to ignore them completely.
>> What was I wrong about exactly?
Maybe just refer to the answers given on the last few occasions you said exactly the same thing. If they didn't convince you then, I doubt repeating it will help.
Just sit on the sidelines and pop in occasionally with your 'poor grades' comments. If it turns out you are right and we are all wrong, you can gloat when the sale doesn't happen. Otherwise, you can slink quietly away, as I doubt you will be visiting to compliment everyone on their foresight.
Porv.
“ It's not enough to beat one's cut-off grade, (which itself probably assumes $5/lb,) “
As said by you this morning. It’s an absurd comment. The cut off grade is now average for most porphyry deposits like this. It has nothing to do with $5 lb. Unless you think Rio, Anglo, Newcrest are pricing at $5 a lb. The cut off grade is based on opex which is pretty standard across most projects and certainly cheaper for xtr than most would be.
What was I wrong about exactly?
So porv has no material interest in XTR but will hang around the BB like a bad smell until he or she is proven wrong...Again...
No wonder the LSE BB is so toxic...
Porv, but your not right, time and time again people point out how wrong you are, you ignore them and go quiet for awhile and then post the same rubbish again.
You've been wrong so many times I am not sure you know what right is anymore?
>> What motivates me to post? Doesn't everyone enjoy the idea of being proven right?
Probably you should just post on every forum and say its a terrible stock and the price will go down. That way you maximize your chance of being 'right' and you can enjoy it even more.
Thank you for the kind invitation Steve.
No, I currently have no financial interest in xtr.
I did own shares for a month or so there. I was attracted by finding the next bigncopper thing, and happy with xtr's general location, and the buzz aro some neighbouring plays. And most importantly, they had that drill hole which kept getting longer and longer, which suggested real size. Would they have the grade as well.
When I saw the visual grade estimates I bailed out at a small loss. Could have been premature, but the assays confirmed the visuals. My question was answered. It then became, at best, a watchlist stock for me. If later drilling changed the picture, well then I'm only a mouseclick away. But I wasn't/am not holding my breath.
What motivates me to post? Doesn't everyone enjoy the idea of being proven right? It's not the noblest of human characteristics, but I never said I was running for pope. And I just like talking about mining explorers... some I think are awesome, but others less so.
Cheers
Looking at the Josemaria FS, it does actually look bigger than Bushranger to me - depending how we view Ascot. If you take Measured + Indicated + Inferred, the contained copper is 4.7Mt at 0.1% cut-off. There's a table that shows this amount reduces only marginally at 0.2% cut-off. In addition there's a lot of gold (10.1m ozs) and silver (52.1m ozs). At current market prices the copper equates to 70% of the total value. If you convert the gold and silver market values to copper then (very crudely!) the mine could be considered to be a 6.7Mt copper mine.
Against this, it looks very heavy on capex - $3.0bn initial, including a 250km road and power line. As a non-expert, recoveries also look lowish - 85% copper, 65% gold, 72% silver. It's almost all sulphide material, suggesting higher opex? So the amount of metals might be substantially offset by the cost of extraction - possibly.......
Although ...... let him talk his nonsense..... it seems to have a positive impact on the shareprice.
Howezap, you're wasting your time. We live in a post truth, post facts world where opinions carry more weight than evidence. Ted needs to sigh up and buy in or sling his hook - nobody's interested.
Cygnus
Ted, the concept envisaged would be that both ore bodies will share a central processing facility, spreading overall CapEx over both mines, infrastructure and utilities are all nearby, with a government that will actively support copper mining.
Arguably a huge plus for the economic viability of the project to get it to production. Also to bear in mind these discoveries are likely district and not isolated and with now multi type mineralisation, point to a multi porphrytic system to be found similar now to cadia.
Racecourse is shaping up to be tier 1 with huge runs of copper mineralisation at consistent grades starting shallow to surface, as little as 11 metres. Very minimal overburden to shift before pay dirt is exposed. Making the recovery rates palatable.
Where Ascot is concerned is looking very likely the grades will consistently be stronger with better gold, moly, etc. it’s orientation is to be more understood yet but is looking to be similar to racecourse in dip. Could very well be, a major would consider Ascot will form the main part of the resource to recover CapEx quicker.
The objective is to loosely infer Ascot so there will be enough evidence for a major to have the confidence in the geology to decide.
You say, There are dozens of other copper projects that are ahead of the queue compared to xtr's. How many of them will actually go to production?
Bushranger will have a much better than average chance imo
porvenireal ".... But hope is for sale a lot cheaper in nearly every other explorer I can think of"
Name them. Which ones of those are you invested in ?
Ted - There are some companies that I invested in because I saw potential but later decided that what I was seeing was the writing on the wall and therefore bailed. I track them to test my decisions and challenge my thinking and this includes checking into the BB's to listen to what those still invested are saying. I must confess that what I often read is people in denial about their investment prospects and a lot of anger towards anyone that challenges the wisdom of the echo chamber. I wouldn't want that to happen here so I am open to people with a different assessment of XTR's prospects. That said, I am also keen to understand what motivates people to post their views, so can I ask you a couple of questions?
Do you have anything invested in XTR and, if so, why?
Did you ever have anything invested and, if so, what convinced you to invest in the first place and what motivated you sell (assuming that is what you have done)?
And lastly, what motivates you to post now if you are no longer invested?
Obviously, it is up to you whether or not you want to answer but people will just keep dismissing your views as de-ramping/trolling if they are sceptical as to your interest and motivation.
Thanks
You've given your opinion on this a thousand times and it's been challenged by people who can demonstrate more knowledge and a better understanding, they raise points that you never address.
So I guess my point would be, altruistically you've tried to save us all from losing money but surely the time has come to just move on? At least until you have a new critic to offer.
Yes, the new resource estimate will be much larger. But....the grades are still so-so to lousy. It's not enough to beat one's cut-off grade, (which itself probably assumes $5/lb,) you have also also pay off the capex and also make a profit someday. The new larger resource is only relevant when it supports a much larger production rate, which naturally requires a much larger capex. Huge capex wants a superior project, not a marginal one. ("Marginal" being generous in this case.) There are dozens of other copper projects that are ahead of the queue compared to xtr's.
I also disagree that this will average .3 or .4. I think it will average in the .2s.
If hole 35 is your stand-out, then you're well off the pace. 64m at 0.58% CuEq from 552m...an ok hit, on the face of it. Unfortunately, this is far too deep to justify an open pit, and far from rich enough to justify bulk underground extraction. It's in no-man's land.
As long as the drills are spinning, there is always hope for richer and larger mineralisation. But hope is for sale a lot cheaper in nearly every other explorer I can think of.