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Hi Johnswan I do understand where you are coming from and the bottom line is , as long as the resource is fit for purpose to trigger one or both of the buy back mechanisms that is why we are mostly all here and ultimately all that matters.
However, consider this, there are lots of factors to consider when valuing a copper deposit, the upshot is that a world-class copper deposit holds a copper resource whose value far exceeds the cost of mining and processing it. This continued fixation that grades have not been up to expectations is complete rubbish. They have been consistent in the lower grades with large runs of it, that have nearly all been of economic grade or above. Exactly what majors want, consistency over 20+ years. Racecourse is looking to be in excess of a 400mt ore body, of which is mostly shallow to surface. That fact, that it is open pittable is the most significant factor in this, it’s by far the cheapest method of mining. Also, with it being in such a favourable location both politically, geographically and probably even more important, environmentally. You have only got to look at Pebble in the pristine Alaskan tundra, couldn’t be in a more environmentally sensitive region which is why it will never be a mine! Bushranger is at the complete opposite end of the spectrum where there is a social acceptance and genuine political support for these types of mine in a mining nation with other open pit mines on its doorstep. Which makes the project highly likely it will be sold and go on to be mined.
A high grade at a low depth can have far less value than a mediocre grade consistent through a shallower resource.
It’s that simple in general, and with a big step up in resource tonnage the copper tonnage will follow, and with it a financial evaluation that will no doubt show a huge improvement in profitability from the already NPV positive study on the far smaller original 71mt resource.
Often I see repeated comments that Colin has said this and Colin has said that about “not the death of a thousand lashes” or about missing his targets, or he said they were only going to drill a few holes into Ascot. yes, I have used many of his quotes and have been readily willing to believe them but my understanding now has allowed me to dismiss them as just attempts to rally the market.
I find it quite amusing that folk so readily and willingly, want to believe those particular comments but then choose to totally dismiss the repeated comments from Colin and also from the highly respected management team about the genuine overall resource potential and that Racecourse will be up around the 2mt mark, and with Ascot, the 2mt will be “by far the bottom end”.
Ok to be fair, I think the swing to the south was ‘maybe’ closed off earlier than they had hoped, with talk that with the potential of extending would see clear 2mt, but they appear confident more recently they are close anyway.
The mid December Ascot discovery webinar, also showed the clear potential of the new discovery, with Jeremy Reid saying we need to drill a load more holes into it to understand it, incidentally this was before Colin even mentioned the initial targets to talk to AA by April/may, with maybe getting away with just 3 holes into Ascot to say ,”there you go gents there’s your other porphyry”
The Ascot discovery webinar was clearly a stronger lead in understanding what they were already planning to do at Ascot and the fact they went to the trouble of producing the webinar, to then only suggest sticking a few holes in it doesn’t make any sense. So Colin was just doing Colin in his own unique way in telling the market what it probably wanted to hear to stir up some excitement.
It was also made very clear in the ascot webinar back then, that they were unable, through regulatory and other reasons, why they cannot provide the market with a running total, and only when the updated resource model for Racecourse is released will that total be reported, as opposed to the opinions here of holding back bad results because that’s what he tends to do!
My theory from all this, and so much more that is there if one takes the time to look or listen, all points to and supports the belief that the extended drilling in phase 2 was to realise the potential of another ‘Cadia like’ system as opposed to just chasing more copper because of a shortfall in their expectations and why they have shut up shop in reporting to hold off ‘perceived’ bad news.
There is a big difference.
When you think about valuations of companies you need to consider the overall market conditions, which are quite negative right now, and the way small cap companies get valued and re-valued very quickly. XTR doesn't have any debt and doesn't need to raise funds in the next 12 months - how many AIM companies can say that? I for one believe that XTR's market cap should be much higher than £30M based on the African assets alone. Anything added from the Australian assets is an added bonus (which could be a very big bonus).
It will be interesting if they announce anything before the AGM. There will be some hard questions asked going by what people on here have stated. Without updating the market in advance what can Colin say ?. We know it is significantly bigger than when they first started drilling but after that ............... ?.
BHP are confident the price of copper will increase in 2025. It is hard to see how selling BR at current copper prices is maximising shareholder value, something he has also promised. (I know they use long term prices, none of which are above $5lb).