Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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That - impressive - podcast re iterated in my mind that CB has excellent Strategic Orientation .. and while his timing may be off 'a bit', as a rule .. off the back of this strategic orientation, the stable of existing resource assets is strong here and the future looks - very - bright for Xtract resources
IMHO & DYOR
I am intrigued by Colin's comments about this little copper mine in the two interviews.
He seems to downplay it at times, claiming it's a tiny operation offering 18 months worth of operations but then at other times he says it's very promising and states they have 2.4km of strike.
Questions I would like answered:
1. He confirms to Zak that they completed drilling to the north. Will we see assays for that drilling or is that XRF style figures?
2. He confirms to the Roast chaps that it is already producing. When will this be reported?
3. The roasties try and pin him down on a forward projection for Kakuye, 5k tonnes /year for 10 years. His answer is "We're not building the future on Kakuye. It's one relatively small mine of many. We're looking at building a central plant ourselves."
Let's unpick those sentences. Colin avoided any kind of estimate about how big it is. "One of many"? Currently you have one mine in Zambia on the website - please stick to the question of how big it might be. It's not helpful to start talking of other acquisitions. As always, Colin's answers throw up more questions than answers. How long will this plant take to build? How much will it cost?
This news today was positive. Gold production is on the up. Kakuye sounds promising but we have literally no idea what's there apart from Colin saying there's 2.4km of strike. I do wish going forward we could interview him with closed questions and he can only answer with a yes or no or a figure.
My 17 Jan post..............
Further to the discussion re FB income.
Using a more consensus view, and some may say more realistic, if you look at two upper and low case scenarios we get (imho) a reasonable idea of what to expect.
Assuming margin is 40% (most seem to agree) and we get 23% of that:
Pessimistic view:
POG $1700
65KG month
That works out at $328K a month = £270K a month net to xtract after all tax and costs
Optimistic view:
POG $2000
100KG month
That works out at $592K a month = £485K a month net to xtract after all tax and costs
Average of the two upper and lower bands is £375K a month
I think circa £350K a month (+ or - £50K) is a very realistic assumption on level of income from FB when we are at full production - probably some time in Q2
https://audioboom.com/posts/8276536-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr
Dani
Interview just out. He confirms FB income at 2min 30 sec
He must have missed your posts as he is talking about $350K to $400K a month profit.
What have I been saying for the last 18 months? £300K to £400K (£) FCF
Check my posts if you like. I've been consistent with this profit and it appears CB agrees with :)
''I would rather take guidance from Colin than unsubstantiated comments on this BB.''
I believe you're 5 days late with that line, Ma B !
"So you see Andrew4444
This is where I got my info from..... straight from the horses mouth - Colin Bird !!!"
If CB said that, then it must be true. Why would anyone doubt what he says :)
Btw I think most on here are fed up with Colin's forward projections and Dani quoting Colin from yesteryear adds nothing to the conversation nor does it add credence to her outlandish claims.
The figures in the RNS today of 124% increase in Q4 and 56% increase in Q1 for Hard rock at Fair bride are confirmed figures from an RNS. Everything else is hot air. The increase is welcome, if not quite as much as some would like or predict.
Fair play to CB for today giving the Fairbride colour I /we badly wanted to understand around now.
Andrew's post is a very good / balanced one imho.
And it's all about looking forward with enthusiasm from here, I clearly now believe
I agree there's a good to very good chance that 70kg per month from FB is doable by May or June (and there's GF and BE adding a bit more again too, hopefully)
Including FB getting to onging 70kgs ish pm - and hopefully more again into the future too - putting to bed any thoughts of a need for a 2023 placing for further Bushranger drilling, it should also make crystal clear to all that Africa Gold revenue alone is indeed worth between 2p and 5 p a share here .... which will make any s/p anywhere in the 1.5p to 2p range feel like a good buying opportunity for plenty sitting on sideline here, I'd hope
(xtr might/would be buyers would have to believe that putting say 2m USD of upcoming Africa Gold revenue into Bush/Ascot drilling is worthwhile too granted .. but plenty will, I believe)
So I'm now hoping for a rally to 2p-2.5p range here this quarter.
IMHO & DYOR
On a positive note, hard rock from fair bride increased
124% from 35.31kg to 79.15kg in Q4 of 2022
56% from 79.15kg to 123.68kg in Q1 of 2023. (in the wet season!)
I think the increase is a positive, especially as it's still ramping up and was delayed for a while.
Another 50% increase in Q2 would be lovely.
MaBaker... could you point me to any rns or media presentation that gives us 30kg gold monthly ?
MaBaker... do you still believe FB will give us £12m annually ?
Interview is on its way.... so no heads down.... but surely there is a point missed here....
The production (might) be much higher now than these Quarter results indicate. Would expect/hope that ramping up meant that the average for this Qtr can only be used as indicative.
I'm fine with this rns. Time for the recovery now.
If I was CB I would keep my head down.
As for RNS it was good I wouldn't say bad but could do better! Oh yes forgot how much unsold gold do we left. Shows we are not stupid and despereate to sell it all at once and waited for higher price.
GL
These are just about OK results. Not bad or good.
Take away points imho
FB is ramping-up and " Preliminary mining contractor gold production from Fair Bride deposit of 123.68kg for Q1 2023, equivalent to 3,976 ounces"
As production increases from April in manica due to better weather we should be at circa 70kg a month by Q2. imho
"Now that the Fair Bride operation has settled and the capital investment has been completed, we plan from the 2nd Quarter (i.e., the three months ending 30 June 2023) to report quarterly on Fair Bride's operation and financial results."
Still no indication of actual income from FB. I assume that will be reported next quarter?
BE and GF look like they should keep on for some time in a steady state way.
Sold a lot of previously unsold Gold. How much more do we have left??
As CB said FB will add much more than alluvial loss, so massive net gain coming with substantial increase in income probably by Q2 OR Q3 latest.
i wonder if he will do interview or just keep his head down for now?
Value of Explorator share of gold produced US$462,292
revenue to Explorator from gold sales and other income for the Period amounted to US$740,280
Think they sold some of their banked gold.
Also a change in reporting going back to quarterly, Now that the Fair Bride operation has settled and the capital investment has been completed, we plan from the 2nd Quarter (i.e., the three months ending 30 June 2023) to report quarterly on Fair Bride's operation and financial results."
Up over 200k on last quarter
· Combined attributable revenue to Explorator from gold sales and other income for the Period amounted to US$740,280
Two things which obviously affect us hugely. Gold and copper prices. I've just posted on telegram and thought I'd share here.
1) gold price is over 2k an ounce. Looking very strong. Our income is directly impacted by a strong gold price. Can we advertise this strength, Colin?
2) Copper price based on supply and demand. Demand currently iffy due to manufacturing downturn in US and uncertainty in China. However, supply issues make for some interesting reading.
I looked into the LME stock reports on their website. They are free to access in excel format.
Current inventory around the world in LME warehouse: 66k tonnes.
3 months ago: 88k tonnes.
6 months ago: 136k tonnes
9 months ago: 136k tonnes
1 year ago: 96k tonnes
18 months ago: 212k tonnes
2 years ago: 150k tonnes
The signs of a dwindling supply are clear. Just need an upturn in demand and hey presto. Boom.
I think that understanding is probably correct as Fair Bride is obviously a completely separate area compared to Guy Fawkes and Boa Esperanza, and they were not in the semi-annually comment and can't be seen to be anything to do with Fair Bride??
Andrew4444
You're probably correct, it's always been a complicated set up over there and just when you remember the new parameters they change !
Jezzo
RNS said
"We anticipate that the financial results from Fair Bride, where we have a 23 per cent. net profit share will initially be reported semi-annually."
My understanding was that that the semi-annually reporting period was referring specifically to production at FB only and not the alluvial and small HR?? Those other two production streams are more manica in general. If it was for ALL production then I would have thought the word "Manica" would have been used and not Fair bride??
Well, that's my understanding. I guess we'll know which interpretation is correct soon enough.
I thought he'd moved results to bi-annual so he only has get off his **** twice a year not 4 times a year.
"When can we expect next set of production updates please?"
Imminently :)
Last quarter release was 9 Jan so if its as late as that then it should be tomorrow (just before Easter). If not then it will be after Easter which means they will be latest ever release - circa 3.5 months after period ended.
If they were good they would be released by now so I'm expecting them to be average at best ie circa 50 to 60 kg for the period. Anything less than 50KG will be disappointing imho.
Alluvial production is running down but small Hard rock seems to be increasing so most of the production may well be down to small HR??
When can we expect next set of production updates please?
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/15702565/is-a-copper-rally-on-the-horizon