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These are just about OK results. Not bad or good.
Take away points imho
FB is ramping-up and " Preliminary mining contractor gold production from Fair Bride deposit of 123.68kg for Q1 2023, equivalent to 3,976 ounces"
As production increases from April in manica due to better weather we should be at circa 70kg a month by Q2. imho
"Now that the Fair Bride operation has settled and the capital investment has been completed, we plan from the 2nd Quarter (i.e., the three months ending 30 June 2023) to report quarterly on Fair Bride's operation and financial results."
Still no indication of actual income from FB. I assume that will be reported next quarter?
BE and GF look like they should keep on for some time in a steady state way.
Sold a lot of previously unsold Gold. How much more do we have left??
As CB said FB will add much more than alluvial loss, so massive net gain coming with substantial increase in income probably by Q2 OR Q3 latest.
i wonder if he will do interview or just keep his head down for now?
If I was CB I would keep my head down.
As for RNS it was good I wouldn't say bad but could do better! Oh yes forgot how much unsold gold do we left. Shows we are not stupid and despereate to sell it all at once and waited for higher price.
GL
I'm fine with this rns. Time for the recovery now.
Interview is on its way.... so no heads down.... but surely there is a point missed here....
The production (might) be much higher now than these Quarter results indicate. Would expect/hope that ramping up meant that the average for this Qtr can only be used as indicative.
MaBaker... do you still believe FB will give us £12m annually ?
MaBaker... could you point me to any rns or media presentation that gives us 30kg gold monthly ?
On a positive note, hard rock from fair bride increased
124% from 35.31kg to 79.15kg in Q4 of 2022
56% from 79.15kg to 123.68kg in Q1 of 2023. (in the wet season!)
I think the increase is a positive, especially as it's still ramping up and was delayed for a while.
Another 50% increase in Q2 would be lovely.
Fair play to CB for today giving the Fairbride colour I /we badly wanted to understand around now.
Andrew's post is a very good / balanced one imho.
And it's all about looking forward with enthusiasm from here, I clearly now believe
I agree there's a good to very good chance that 70kg per month from FB is doable by May or June (and there's GF and BE adding a bit more again too, hopefully)
Including FB getting to onging 70kgs ish pm - and hopefully more again into the future too - putting to bed any thoughts of a need for a 2023 placing for further Bushranger drilling, it should also make crystal clear to all that Africa Gold revenue alone is indeed worth between 2p and 5 p a share here .... which will make any s/p anywhere in the 1.5p to 2p range feel like a good buying opportunity for plenty sitting on sideline here, I'd hope
(xtr might/would be buyers would have to believe that putting say 2m USD of upcoming Africa Gold revenue into Bush/Ascot drilling is worthwhile too granted .. but plenty will, I believe)
So I'm now hoping for a rally to 2p-2.5p range here this quarter.
IMHO & DYOR
Btw I think most on here are fed up with Colin's forward projections and Dani quoting Colin from yesteryear adds nothing to the conversation nor does it add credence to her outlandish claims.
The figures in the RNS today of 124% increase in Q4 and 56% increase in Q1 for Hard rock at Fair bride are confirmed figures from an RNS. Everything else is hot air. The increase is welcome, if not quite as much as some would like or predict.
"So you see Andrew4444
This is where I got my info from..... straight from the horses mouth - Colin Bird !!!"
If CB said that, then it must be true. Why would anyone doubt what he says :)
''I would rather take guidance from Colin than unsubstantiated comments on this BB.''
I believe you're 5 days late with that line, Ma B !
https://audioboom.com/posts/8276536-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr
Dani
Interview just out. He confirms FB income at 2min 30 sec
He must have missed your posts as he is talking about $350K to $400K a month profit.
What have I been saying for the last 18 months? £300K to £400K (£) FCF
Check my posts if you like. I've been consistent with this profit and it appears CB agrees with :)
My 17 Jan post..............
Further to the discussion re FB income.
Using a more consensus view, and some may say more realistic, if you look at two upper and low case scenarios we get (imho) a reasonable idea of what to expect.
Assuming margin is 40% (most seem to agree) and we get 23% of that:
Pessimistic view:
POG $1700
65KG month
That works out at $328K a month = £270K a month net to xtract after all tax and costs
Optimistic view:
POG $2000
100KG month
That works out at $592K a month = £485K a month net to xtract after all tax and costs
Average of the two upper and lower bands is £375K a month
I think circa £350K a month (+ or - £50K) is a very realistic assumption on level of income from FB when we are at full production - probably some time in Q2
….and we have one of the top 10 potential copper mines on top of this , with money coming in to fund more exploration
For what its worth....MMs will take 1.25M at 1.53p atm
They want shares.
1.4p was the bottom? Will xtr return to 4/5p the Next 24 months?
Share of the year by end of 2023!
One can but hope!
Dani
I've already given you a comprehensive breakdown of my calcs on 16 Jan 2023 at 20:10. That was the second time I have done that and dont want to clog the BB up with another long post.
The "three times "comment by CB was some time ago and that was x3 income from FB per month against alluvial income. If so, that again confirms your income prediction is far too high and more consistent with my FB prediction.
There is nothing more I or anyone else can say to show that your figures are far too optimistic, so I will leave it there. May be you will start to understand more when FB income settles down by Q3 and is broadly what I have said.
So sorry, we are not on the same page.. or even on the same book...or even in the same library. If we were in the same Library I would be by the "factual reading "area and you would be reading at the fiction area :)
Blimeyori my avg is 4.5p any Hope here the Next 2 years?
Andrew444,. I don't know why you bother. She has never understood that the 23% is profit and not 23% of the value of the gold sold.
At least she is no longer repeating her valuation of Fairbride at £12 per share that was her considered view some time ago.
Absolutely and should be more than that in 2 years but I expect it to be sold well before then!
Zak Mir Interview below
https://soundcloud.com/zak-mir-168804435/zakstraderscafe-interview-colin-bird-executive-chairman-xtract-resources?utm_source=mobi&utm_campaign=social_sharing&utm_terms=mobi_audio_ads.control
CB is consistent with his anticipated income figures here, with his prediction of $400K to £500K a month ("assuming we achieve our targets")
Worth noting that we are now only just starting to process the main Hard Rock which will be higher grade. So hopefully another marked increase in income for next quarter?
CB said steady state should be achieved in 2 to 3 months , so that probably means 4 months so hopefully by mid Q3 we will be at full capacity??
I'm looking for 50% increase in production next quarter (no rain and now in main Hard Rock) and another circa 20% increase for quarter after that. That should take us to CB's anticipated monthly income of circa $450K a month by Q3?
Sounds about right, Andrew.
I imagine Dani will still be waiting for it to ramp up to £1m a month net in Q3 2035. By then we'll all be long gone, having sold out in Q4 2023 at 15p when AA realised copper was going to the moon and made us an offer we couldn't refuse.
Dani refused to sell, explaining that Colin said in a podcast once in 2021 that we don't pay Operating costs in Mozambique. She was therefore waiting for "at least £1" before moving on. She ran the telegram group, after the Roast boys all cashed in their shares and sold out. The 2021 podcast link is pinned on the group.
The LSE site in 2035 is quiet, although interesting to note that one regular visitor from the 20s, Kwadoku, has changed his tune and argues that even he made some money from BR and XTR when it hit 15p. Steve4077 is an occasional visitor, popping in to claim he's made 20% on his copper trackers over the past 12 years.
Occasionally, retired Zak Mir loads a podcast on Vimeo with 92 year old Colin Bird, who brags about extending the strike at Kakuye to 280m and possibly doing some drills to test an IOCG at a place called Eureka. He recalls realising he had this licence stuffed at the bottom of his back pocket his "Eureka moment", as he'd forgotten he even had it. Zak says even less in the 2035 podcasts than he does now. Colin explains that drilling out Eureka will not be a "death by a thousand lashes" and will be in production by the end of the year 2035, to join the other 37 small ventures Xtract have signed up to in Zambia. Best place to look for elephants is where you've already found them, he jokes.
Have a good weekend all!
Funniest post ever BenH. Shame i can't show the wife. They just don't undestand do they. Tears from laughter instead of from the share price for a change. Thanks again matey! Happy Easter all and Colin.
Very Good Ben :)
Actually some of that may be far to close to the truth to be funny :)
That said, If this hits 15p then we will all be laughing and no doubt all long gone.
Well, maybe not all. Some my be still be waiting for the "inevitable" £1 sp before selling..................
Have a Good Easter everyone.