The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Penguins
Very funny you have been predicting the depletion for many years that the water injection is there to offset & was stated by Xodus in the 2018 Portland CPR.
The key question as far as the gas is concerned is what is the current gas production & how is that likely to increase in the development, test & production stages of the future HH wells & is it within the current permitted limits?
HH was originally permitted for 3000BOPD.
Wizz - you haven't addressed the issue that the reservoir model is clearly wrong
reserves must go down and there goes any RBL
Mirasol
If you read the RNS I believe UKOG addressed that.
Ocelot,
you haven't considered that the constant optimism by certain posters of how great everything was and how the SP would always rise in the future over the past 3 years vs the outcomes might have lead to the disillusionment of investors and the low price?
So the years of decline to the 'bottom' is due to optimists and the 4? days of recovery (if it holds) due to pessimists - followed by a day's drop caused presumably by the optimists
Didn't exactly see that being reflected in the posts over the last few days.
There has been a single poster saying the Turkish well wouldn't be drilled but the main thrust has been it's unlikely to be transformational (unless that means a well not much different to HH-1, if they're lucky) - that has still to be found out.
As nobody flagged that permission from the authorities was something waited for (which as the site was being prepared AME obviously thought it would be a formality) the market wasn't waiting for 'permission to drill from the Turkish authorities' and it was just lucky a P&D at 88E had just happened.
Any proof of the 'rumour' about wealthy (now wealthier with cash in bank if they were smart) Turkish investors?
Wizard,
'HH was originally permitted for 3000BOPD.'
By the EA? Storage and handling of 500tonnes is about 3150bbls not bopd. UKOG are now indicating production of up to 25,000scf/day from HH-1 (up to 140bopd?) and up to 250,000scf/day during 90 day ewt production from further wells. But UKOG's record of using the permissions they have to the full is poor.
Don't confuse planning permission for a maximum number of daily tanker export for a short 4 month period with EA permission to flare or utilise associated gas.
Wizard
There is one planning application still outstanding for storage on site. They have requested the following size tanks.
58: GAUGE TANKS X 5 (CAPACITY 27.8M3) (VESSEL NO. WT-T1 to WT-T5)
60: GAUGE TANKS X 2 (CAPACITY 69.95M3) (VESSEL NO. WT-T7 to WT-T8)
61: GAUGE TANK (CAPACITY 55.64M3) (VESSEL NO. WT-T6)
Senmon.
Once again what's important is, what do YOU think will happen.
It's YOUR money.
Whose advice are you asking for?
Who are you listening to?
Who is everyone on this forum?
What are their qualifications that they can advise YOU what to do with YOUR money?
Have you noticed many conflicting views/thoughts here?
Why would you be interested in anyone else's view?
It's YOUR money you're investing.
Thanks Ibug
I don't know if that includes currant storage onsite or is additional storage but if additional would add about 2000 barrels storage which would make storage for about 4200 if there is currently 2200 barrels storage.
https://planning.surreycc.gov.uk/planappdisp.aspx?AppNo=SCC%20Ref%202020/0018
No. Totally new configuration. I have been in touch with SCC as it does not match what they have put in the EA application. That was well over a month ago and not had a reply.
Ibug
I don't know about that but I thought planning in September 2019 was granted on the extended HH site for up to 9000 barrels storage.
Wizard
When did the EWT finish? When did they discover water? Application went in at the end of January 2020.
Ibug
Did the EWT finish at the time the production licence began March/April 2020.
The water began after the oil flow increased to 300 BOPD which was the expectation of what the well could produce by the flow test by Xodus from memory.
Wizard
It is easy to check using the RNS's. Despite the Planning Application the EA permit is even more restrictive only allowing 1230 barrels of oil to be stored. The gauge tanks are gone and there are only storage tanks.
https://consult.environment-agency.gov.uk/psc/rh6-0hn-horse-hill-developments-ltd/supporting_documents/04%20%20Site%20Location%20Plan%20and%20Site%20Layout%20Plan%20R1.pdf
"Did the EWT finish at the time the production licence began March/April 2020."
Yes - the OGA wouldn't hand out a PL while the EWT was running - tho it was, in fact the other way round.
Because so little was happening onshore UK and because the Kimm was so new the OGA effectively allowed UKOG to produce under the EWT approval for well over a year. They'd argue (correctly) that UKOG weren't making a profit so that was OK under the guidance.
Once they'd approved the FDP the EWT officially stops and the production licence supersedes it.
Ibug
Are we looking at a export pipeline there?
Yup my thoughts exactly
There are times when there is absolutely no point in trying to fight the market.
If the market has come to the conclusion that UKOG's share price is seriously undervalued, then the re-rating will take place, no matter what anybody posts on this board.
But it works both ways - if the market decides that the share price has gone up too far it can swiftly decline as was shown on Friday when the share price dropped by over 30 percent.
I suspect a good number of the trolls have no stake in UKOG.
Consequently, they are free to express their views but lack the financial muscle to have any impact on the share price.