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I entirely agree . Spoke to the company about it and they are far from happy . I understand several initiatives are in hand to try and address share price . The strategy to reduce debt is spot on . It will turn but the London market as a whole is a disgrace and I see the likelihood of loads of companies just moving to us listing
There really is getting a smell around this SP, yesterday there were twice as many “buys” as “sells” and the price dropped, today there are £3k sells and £18k buy and the price is back up, why was there a large drop yesterday? It’s about time the MMs came and explained themselves to us?
Approaching £112000 buys and £2600 sells today . How long can the mm’s keep this price down ? Not long methinks
Hi riverboy, and thank you . The traffic style has not changed ! Yea you are right, if voted down cannot go ahead . But Ed in presentations made clear he sees the company over a twenty to thirty year timeframe with possible investment in different ship types dependent on market . I am down like you but am in for the real long term and retain full confidence . But would still love a ride ….. after dividend reinvestment
Thanks Sam, Mike and Krusty for all your thoughts on the figures. Personally I was pleased to see the divi retained, I did see a possibility of a reduction which would have caused untold damage imho to the SP. My frustrations with the MMs here are as yours Sam, it would be very informative if one of them would explain what is going on exactly. Re the suggestion that we might see a reversal to private ownership, I agree with Sam in that I don’t believe it will happen anytime soon (personally hope not as even a 20% premium to current SP would still leave me nursing a loss). As an aside if an offer was made and a shareholder rejected it I imagine it can’t be forced on a shareholder, similar to the Grindrod takeover? Enjoy Thailand, we certainly enjoyed our visit to a couple of ports on a cruise, lovely gentle folk and an experience to be had crossing their roads with what seems like four lanes of traffic in both directions!
We are 15 mins or so from there . I won’t tell you what it is here ! Fingers crossed for a good week for charter rates .
Hi Sam, great, I have been to Koh Samui,a long time ago in the 1980's , can't remember exactlywhere we stayed but it must be near to you and within sight of the Big Buddha.
Anyway back to subject. With some afterthought I agree with you.
We are up to 10 centigrade today!
Hi Mike , apologies if sending at that time disturbed you . Will try and avoid again . We are staying on koh Samui at fisherman’s village bophut . This is our fifth visit and love it . Thank you for the figures much appreciated. Re your buy out, whilst always a possibility I think unlikely for two reasons. To go public the way they did and then buy grindrod took a huge amount of time and effort legal wise etc so why go private now or in the next couple of years given the grindrod buy has made things even more complex to do . Secondly and perhaps more importantly Ed and the team are still young and VERY ambitious . They very much want to grow the business . Given the focus at the moment is very much on debt reduction and integrating grindrod I think as these are ‘completed’ we will see a real emphasis on strengthening the share price. The level of share buys verse sells if continues cannot keep the share price static indefinitely. Have a lovely weekend. Sent from poolside
Hi Sam, I suppose your post at 00.53 is 7.53 am in Thailand, by the way which resort are you in?
The break-even TC is going up with the reducing number of vessels and the average vessel size is getting bigger , the 4 vessel sales in this quarter were all Handysizes plus inflationary increases and high interest rates. So based on the latest numbers the breakeven TC is roughly $12,870/day and allows for dividend of 2c/share to continue every quarter (this costs $6.6m every 3 months). The 4 completed vessel sales had total gross proceeds of $40m (plus TMI received $26.7m from Grindrod's capital reduction and pay-out to shareholders) so it is a little surprising that only $11.4m was paid off debt, it might just be that some of the funds came in late in December and were transferred to paying off debt in early January.
I agree with your comments on the mm's. On Friday TMIP share sales were 9,000 and purchases 208,152 while TMI sales were zero and purchases 882,402, that is a total net buy of 1,081,564 (0.3% of the total shares changed hands) but the share price did not budge. TMI had 2 big buys of 204,814 shares and 488,627 shares timed at 4.01pm.With the original Taylor Maritime group buying 1.3% of the shares in this quarter taking their total to around 8% , I wonder if they will continue to do so or even consider a private buy-out? With the current share price at a 35% discount to NAV they could offer to buy out the existing shareholders including us at say a 20% premium to the current price and still get the assets at a 15% discount to book value. 15% of total NAV is currently worth around $67m and TMI has shown over the last 12 months that the main assets, vessels, can if need be, be readily sold at around their book value. Possibly I am totally wrong!
Hi Mike, Krusty, thanks for your thoughts Mike. Yes the Marshall Islands was definitely family. I do not have my notes with me here . Can you remind me as to what figure you see as the average charter break even point ? I think the important thing is that debt is falling and economies coming through so we should be very near to that point. Rates are much higher than this time last year when as we know rates normally dip in the lead up to the Chinese new year. This year they are supported by Red Sea and Panama Canal events . Fingers crossed fundamentals are then stronger for rest of year . Regarding share price agreed but I must admit to increasingly become disillusioned by the Uk stock market . The various goings on by the mms are not impressive , not least with huge swings on very little turnover and prices going up sometimes when sells outnumber buys. In checking yesterday buys were plus £140,000 and sells £6000 and the price doesn’t move. Ridiculous but will still take it . The Uk has the higher divs and don’t have the tax we are charged on us divs but thinking seriously of putting more into dollar investments….. not least as I fear for the pound next year . A good days discussion chaps, interesting , informative and positive. Regards to riverboy as well .
Sam/Krusty, the actual average time charter equivalent of $11,997/day although up about 15% was a little lower than I had hoped for and the reduction to 40 vessels in total was quicker than I had estimated. The NAV bridge shown in the Q3 factsheet today is interesting. The total NAV/share increase was 5 cents, but vessel fair value gains (vessel appreciation ) accounted for 6 cents of this, profit just 1 cent and dividends a loss of 2 cents, so dividend is still not fully covered by profit and is partly coming out of vessel appreciation. So this remains on a knife-edge, TMI needs even higher TC' s/lower costs per vessel/lower financing to get this down and cannot keep paying it out of assets particularly if vessel values were to fall or even just depreciate naturally as they get older. Fortunately 42% of fleet days for 2024 have already been covered at the slightly higher TCE of $12,387/day ,although the BDHI dropped in the first half of Jan while vessel values have increased in the first 3 weeks of Jan, for vessel values I have started to use the weekly percentage changes shown in the Hellenic Shipping News which appear more accurate.
The combined vessels were 40 at the end of Dec with Grindrod announcing a Handysize vessel sale since then. Below you mention Grindrod are taking up an option to purchase an existing charter vessel but this was already included in the starting 40 to the total vessel count will still be going down to 39 in June this year. We cannot carry on cutting but the high interest rate is crippling at the moment (the reduced debt of $156.2m debt at the end of December will be costing around $2.7m every 3 months in interest).
The Grindrod accounts for their full year, Jan-Dec 2023 should be out around 8th Feb (that was the date last year) but after that, to save money, will only report every 6 months rather than quarterly as before .
Not sure if the Barbarossa Ltd , Marshall Islands you mentioned at the start of the year is related to the low-key comment in the RNS that the private Taylor Maritime group (is this still our CEO's father???) has increased its stake in TMI????
Still a bit disappointing to not see the result today push the share price to 70p, The current NAV of 136 cents/share is equivalent to 107p so we are still trading on a 35% discount to NAV.
Yes and totally agree Krusty
Oh that's interesting, presumably a replacement for the vessel sale referred to in results? It'll be nice to get back to more healthy "old one out, new one in" transactions going forward, to maintain or improve the combined fleet.
Hi Krusty , thanks and agree all . Price slightly up . Grindrod today announce they are taking up option on a purchase ! Delivery expected June 24 .
Thanks Mike, am counting on you re the figures. You’re much better than me at that but even to my layman’s eyes they were much better than last quarter . Thailand lovely but awful cold/ cough so battling to lose both as quickly as possible
Thanks Mike, am counting on you re the figures. You’re much better than me at that but even to my layman’s eyes they were much better than last quarter . Thailand lovely but awful cold/ cough so battling to lose both as quickly as possible
Absolutely agree, seems like good news all round. Great to see gearing reduced to sub-25% as per the stated aim at the time of the Grindrod deal, future vessel sales will help reduce this further. SP doesn't seem to have responded yet so still time to pick up more cheap shares, surely at some point we'll get a re-rate. For me, the next positive sign I'd like to see is an order for new vessel(s) but I guess that'll have to wait for rates to increase significantly again from here. In the mean time, as Sam says , enjoy the dividends! Have a great weekend all. K
Hi Sam, good to see the NAV up 3.9% although my expectation a few days ago was too optimistic as the Market Value of the combined fleet did not increase as much as I had hoped.
I will crunch the numbers in more detaii. Enjoy Thailand!
Must admit absolutely delighted. Also 2024 lock in rates for so many days excellent. In time certain this WILL be discovered and all those in now will be rewarded . Until then thoroughly enjoying the dividends !
Well I decided this morning to buy some more pre results. Some interesting articles have been appearing about shipping and the mounting difficulties it faces from the red sea, to panama canal to port congestion. Rather along the lines as taken for granted smooth sailings for too long. Handysize gone up a tad today as well as reports shipping around Africa is booming so should benefit Grindrod .. Hopefully speak Friday Mike,Krusty,Riverboy.
Hi Mike and Krusty, yes fingers crossed your in the right ball park Mike. The share price has been in the 66 to 67 area for some time so any good news should give the share price a nice boost . I also think grindrod are not too far off reporting as well . Role on Friday ……. Where I will read them on a beach in Thailand …… rather than a windswept Uk
Hope you're in the right ballpark there Mike, certainly be good news for holders here if you are. I'm hoping they can give some assurance that the worst is behind us now and that current / outlook for trading is looking better once we're through the traditional Chinese New Year lull. There does seem to be a more positive vibe around shipping companies just now, hope we can join the party on Friday.
Sam/Krusty, likewise looking forward to the Oct-Dec numbers on Friday.
the dominating factor is going to be the vessel appreciation since the end of September. After a big drop in vessel values at the end of September TMI told us in their RHS of 25th October that "Clarksons' benchmark values for 2nd hand Handysize and Supra/Ultramax vessels has returned to their end of June levels since{September} quarter-end". NAV at end of September was $433m, with increased TC's for the 42 to 44 vessels I have total TC's $54.2m less operational expenses $47m= gross operational profit $$7.2m less financing $2.9m, plus vessel appreciation $50m , group expenses-$4m=NAV increase of $50.3m or about 11.6% to about $483m.
NAV of $483m is about $1.46/share or £1.15/share which represents a 43% discount to NAV which I think would propel the price back to a 35% discount of 75p.Bank borrowings should also be good news with a plateauing off of new vessel sales.
However if that vessel appreciation is considerably lower then the NAV rise will be considerably lower. Unfortunately I do not know of an accurate vessel valuator available to us.
Hopefully should be good.
Update Friday, will make interesting reading.