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Great to see, have to say my patience has been tested recently with this SP but at last things seem to be improving. I was very pleased to see two cargo ships dock in Ukraine for grain by using a different route to that used before. I have doubts about the next dividend I am expecting a reduction but fingers crossed my doubts will turn out to be ill founded.
All key indexes up again today and share price finally responding . Handsize up nearly 2%, capesize nearly 10 %, and baltic dry over 4% . For every rise more money to the company..... and as said they have a track record of beating the indexes. Plus re costs economies of scale still working through.
I think you sum it up really well . The company is extremely well run and I know that the CEO takes its performance hugely personally and is working his socks off. Just like you , I feel it’s nice to own a small part of a shipping company . Also always a good sign when directors are buying as has happened this week , the last one quite a biggie
Thanks Mike and Sam,
I bought at the beginning of the year, so I'm in quite a loss at the moment, but for what I can understand through news and reading of their documents (and your comments) is a company that is well run. And the case is the same now as it was at the beginning of the year. Not just the company, but the whole of sea freight, it is going to be needed yes or yes. Making boats is going to get more and more expensive, so if you have them now you are in a win. I see them appreciating significantly thanks to inflation (and yes, debt will be a burden, but even more so for those who need to buy from new)
So I keep adding when I can. It makes me feel good to think I own a tiny part of a ship!
And it seems directors are doing too..
Gonsan/Sam, BHSI up 3.65% today to 624 and considering where we got to, now just 5.88% down YTD. BDI up 3.9% today to 1290 and now up 4.45% YTD. The Sunday credit information and inflation figures on China were surprisingly positive.
Good question, is the dividend safe? Operating performance has been close to breakeven and the NAV dropped in both previous quarters. Up to now the Board has been very supportive of the dividend and certainly expressed this, but if squarterly operating losses had continued and NAV continued to fall then they would have eventually has to cut the dividend. Despite the recent massive recovery in the BHSI, because of the low levels it got to in July/early August, the average BHSI for this quarter is likely to be around say 482 which is 17% lower than Q2. Don't forget that Grindrod has a big agreed pay-out coming out and then no more dividends this year. Fortunately I think the massive recent BHSI rise will give the board confidence to leave the dividend as it is to the end of this year at least.
The Indices now seem to have reached an inflection point where the daily buys considerably outweigh the sells which if continued should see the share price back into the mid-70's (p) . So we should still expect a tough Q3 but a considerably better Q4. it is possible that the big jump in the indices actually turns expected vessel depreciation into vessel increases which would increase the NAV more than I am suggesting.
One never knows about sudden geo political economic shocks but as things stand I am more than confident . The revival in rates make a huge difference to the company, particularly as debt from the acquisition is paid down. Mike, with the strong index rise today I now make it that the bhsi is now ahead for the year . Only a couple of weeks ago , was 13 percent down on the year as you pointed out so a real improvement
Given current circumstances, how secure do you guys think the dividend is?
Splash 247.com interview with Ed Buttery, Sept 13 , under dry bulk . Worth reading
And the company have consistently beaten these indexes so a double positive
Even the latest director purchase was not fully recorded in the statistics of the day.
BHSI up 2.91% and BDI up 4 50% today.
£105 k approx buys todays verse £283 sells and price hardly moves . The stock market never fails to surprise me. But another director buy and indexes still nicely strengthening so all good …
Yes he has although this one was relatively small at 30,000 share on 6th Sept.
The crazy thing is that the combined buy on 6th did not even add upto 30k so the traded figures are obviously not correct.
BDI up 11.6 % this week and now just up YTD. BHSI has continued to increase every day this week and is currently about 13% down YTD.
A nice buy yesterday. Certainly got skin in the game !
All indexes nicely up today !
Hi Mike , methinks you are too modest ! Good points all but I especially agree with your last point regarding as things improve. Handysize index is on a nicely upward trajectory at the moment as well .
Sam, You were all the ball last night! I am certainly no expert and we work together!
I agree with your summary, Given the economic climate , the results look better than I expected and so in context would rate them as "very good" although in reality as barely profitable.
Adjusted net income in Q1 was a loss of - $4.3m and in Q2 a net income of $5.5m so $1.2m for the 6 months
The NAV was $287.4 m at the start of January and $287.8m at the end of June which is +0.12% when many ,including me were expecting a reduction of several percent. $1.2m net income represents a return on net assets of just 0.04% but at least it is positive and shows that the actions taken by management are working. TCE per day were higher in Q2 than Q1.
I still expect the current Quarter to be slightly tougher than Q1 or Q2 but we have to take faith in these number s that if the management can roughly breakeven in this tough environment and still pay us a respectable dividend then imagine what they can do when the business climate improves.
Mike, the results look good to me . You’re the expert . What do you think ?
I suppose with the index you have to realise that this reflects spot Time Charter rates and shipping companies have a varied combination of long term time charters, short term charters and one off spot charters.
In the Q1/23 trading update the blended TC rate for the combined TMI/Grindrod fleet was $12,735/day . TMI had 86% of their TC's as 0-6 months so I am guestimately the blended TC for the current Quarter will be around $12,200/day.
We will know more in 2 hours or so when the Grindrod 3 and 6 month results to the end of June are out.
I think you've pretty much summed up my thoughts on this share Candid. I'm also concerned about vessel sales as a method for debt reduction, but the Board gave assurances and are therefore committed. Assuming the debt targets are reached, the size of the integrated TMIP/Grind fleet still looks to justify the acquisition, albeit the timing couldn't have been worse from a market perspective. I believe the sp is very much in "wait & see" mode until TMIP can deliver efficiencies from the takeover.
I sold some here at 88p in January ahead of the half-year results, having become nervous about the debt etc. I'm looking to buy them back at 68p to reduce my average again.
I am down 15% on this share , and I don't really know why ...at the time an 8% dividend yield on a discount to NAV of approaching 50% felt like an attractive proposition. ..
Reading many of the contributions on here , particularly regarding the index rate increases , I would have expected a steady increase in SP rather than the reverse
Debt isn't really too high , prudent move to reduce it , although funded by revenue earning asset sales rather than surplus profits plus the reduction in NAV narrowing the discount , doesn't help the situation , but even allowing for this, the downward direction of the share price remains a mystery to me.
I do wonder if the additional Grinrod acquisition had a negative effect on the market confidence surrounding the share, but even this doesn't explain a halving of the share price of 12 months ago .
Do others on here feel the same as I do , or is there an elephant in the room which I don't know about ?
Candid ..
Thanks all, my dividend has also now appeared in my HL account.
BHSI up 1.29% today to 548, that is now 17.35% down YTD. in contrast the BDI hit a 5 week low on Friday but is up today and is now down 4.41% YTD. Still very much focused on news out of China.
OK thanks ffl, noted. It's not my info, it was copied & pasted from HL Q&A. I often find these things are out of date though so happy to stand corrected.
Mine received too, thanks.
Re HL. I have received my divi today. There is usually a delay of a few days in it arriving.
FYI, I think your info re reinvestment charges is out of date. H L recently dropped charges for reinvestment of most share dividends.
Call from the above. Resolved, money in and an apology