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Hi Mike. Yes agree all you said . I personally think the dividend is more than safe . Only got the last one a few days ago . Will be in London I think .
Sam,are you talking Guernsey or somewhere more exotic? Let us all know how you get on. Yes, crazy {in a good way} market conditions this week. The Cape index is up a third in 2 days! The BDI increased 10% in November, the best monthly performance since June 2020 and the BHSI up 12.26% in November.
According to TradeWinds " Supraxes in the Atlantic earning highest premium since 2017- but yet ready for the January blues".
I agree with your comments on the Company and just hope these increases are enough to fend off any reduction in the dividend. TMI H1 results out on 11th Dec.
Mike thanks . I am visiting the company in January which I am looking forward to . Rates again really firmed again today which is excellent . The sad thing is people these days want an instant return . I see this as a long term play with a young ambitious company and board . As I have said before , how many two year old companies buy out a 100 plus years one . In the meantime the dividends are excellent so one can choose to reinvest or take income. Spk soon Sam ps and Taylor results getting nearer
Sam,
the Q3 revenue was actually higher than I had expected but the gross profit was lower than I had expected suggesting the depreciation or some of the costs were higher than expected.
Over the 9 month period if you assume the $5.2m adjusted loss is spread over say 29 owned/chartered vessels divided by 270 days then that is equivalent to a $664/day loss per vessel so that roughly puts the breakeven for Handysize vessels at $10,916/day and Supramax/Ultramax vessels at $14,110/day.
Hi Riverboy, now more sells but the share price is now showing as down 0.93%.
Overall, like us, the market is perceiving the Grindrod Q3 result as being a little disappointing. The Grindrod capital reduction in the form of a cash distribution has yet to be completed and the business will not pay out any more dividends for 2023.
This is really weird, there are over £52,000 worth of sells and £2 of purchase yet the SP is up 2%, do you understand this Mike because I sure don’t?
Hi Sam, Q3 net loss was $6.5m or adjusted net loss of $5.2m so worse than my expected bottom end of $2m loss but I think this just reflects that the BHSI index in this quarter, particularly July was lower than we want to remember and interest rates have increased further
.As you say, the TCE rates are increasing. For me the Grindrod breakeven handysize only number was around $10,000/day 12 months ago and now $11,000+/day based on current interest rates/operating level/admin costs spread over less vessels.
Obviously this will reflect on the Q3 TMI number but I am still expecting a better number.
Hi all , initial look at figures indicates charter rates slowly improving but still low . The positives are reduced costs, reduced debt , but probably most importantly the number of days locked in at very good rates for q4 . Mike, I recall you previously mentioned what you thought there breakeven daily charter rate was for handysize and ultra . Can you advise ? Regards to all
Hi Mike, you are better in interpreting the numbers than I am so will look forward to your analysis. Fingers crossed !
Hi Sam,
I totally agree with your sentiment and Riverboy and Krusty before, like you, I am down here and hanging on for the ride.
I have already tried to include the factors you have mentioned and just tried to be realistic , see the recent numbers for Eagle Bulk ,and hope like you that I am way too conservative and the actual numbers are much better , we will see on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Hi all, latest dividend in which I am reinvesting . Re your figures Mike , hopefully economies of scale now working through and may help the figures . Also in the short existence of the company Taylor’s have beaten the bshi every quarter so fingers crossed grindrod have as well . If not I will hop up the coast and berate them ! But seriously also hope for a share price improvement as never nice to nurse a bad loss even if it is only a paper one. Bst rgds to all
Thanks for that Mike it would be nice for a bit of improvement in the SP here, hopefully it can’t drop much more.
I have had another look at the BHSI for July to Sept and the quarter was the lowest of the year so my expectation now for Grindrod's Q3 is Net Income/ Profit after tax of between -$2 m to +$2 m so broadly break even and no change to the NAV which might initially seem disappointing but the number should be considerably higher in Q4.
Riverboy, I know what you mean. the Grindrod numbers out early next week will be Q3 (July-Sept) and 9 months (Jan-Sept).
The figures for the first 6 months were revenue $185.8m, profit after tax $1.2 m EPS 6 cents/share. Since then, as you say, Time Charter rates has marginally recovered, the bigger factor is what have vessel values done since the end of June and I think they have also recovered so as you say fingers crossed and good luck to all.
The BDI had a massive 13.3% increase on Friday and up 15.5% for the week which bodes well for even better numbers in the current quarter.
I am still holding my nerve here hoping for some good news from the figures due out Tuesday but growing increasingly nervous as the SP continues its slide south. Even on recent days when there have been more buyers than sellers the SP occasionally went south. Hopefully the news will be good, Grindrods SP has been moving up, the charter rates have been improving, fingers crossed and good luck to all.
Glad to hear it and you are in their summer.
BHSI up 3.40% today and back into positive territory YTD.
Really good thanks Mike . South Africa gets a bad press in Uk but we feel safer here than London these days. Fantastic food,wine , friendly people , and wonderful scenery . Staying at the moment in Paarl .As an example of kindness , the owner of the guest house we are staying with took us for a four hour drive up in the mountains in his land rover . Sone of the best scenery I have ever seen , including USA and Aus. Fingers crossed for a further index rose today . Speak soon I am sure
Sam, yes the BHSI has been up for the last 7 days in a row and up a massive 4.01% today. Grindrod up 3.79% today on Nasdaq.
How if your hol going?
Finally charter rates having a nice rise today and the share price starting to respond
Results 28 November . Not so imminent lol
Results imminent Mike
......something brewing at Grindrod shipping, on Friday the share price increased 6.36% on Nasdaq and 7.17% on JSE.
Hi candidinvestor, your observation about the sale of ships is one I've made a couple of times before. However, there are several mitigating circumstances to take into account, including:
- The cyclical nature of all shipping businesses
- It's still very early days in terms of the merger with Grindrod, and economies of scale are yet to be fully exploited
- The need to reduce the debt, as TMIP said they would at the time of the merger
- The combined fleet is larger and combined revenue much greater following merger, so the company is actually growing strongly rather than "dying"
- The vessels being sold are predominantly older Chinese ones which are less efficient and therefore less profitable
Also, you haven't lost 16% here unless you've sold up. You may be down 16% (my average is just under 87 so I'm down more than that) but this is a long-term investment (as all shipping company shares are) so sit tight, top up (like sam4224) if you can afford to & wait for the inevitable upturn. In the mean time, keep collecting a very nice dividend. All IMHO of course, you must decide what to do yourself. K
Hi , I am not going to deny I am far from happy with the share price . But I have seen a lot of other companies selling their older ships so it isn’t unusual . Also it has one new ship on order . I am hoping that they get to a level of ship holding that is the best for economies of scale and size of fleet . The three listings are a heavy cost . I hope they will address that . Next results very important and indeed those of Grindrod which are due imminently. I must admit I am still adding but will breathe a lot easier when the share price starts to strengthen .
Take your point Mike , but selling your assets does suggest a company which is not only not growing , but is one which is dying slowly ...as revenue falls , the company will die more quickly .
I have already lost 16% on this share , and with each same the share price seems to sink lower
Just an observation