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I suppose with the index you have to realise that this reflects spot Time Charter rates and shipping companies have a varied combination of long term time charters, short term charters and one off spot charters.
In the Q1/23 trading update the blended TC rate for the combined TMI/Grindrod fleet was $12,735/day . TMI had 86% of their TC's as 0-6 months so I am guestimately the blended TC for the current Quarter will be around $12,200/day.
We will know more in 2 hours or so when the Grindrod 3 and 6 month results to the end of June are out.
I think you've pretty much summed up my thoughts on this share Candid. I'm also concerned about vessel sales as a method for debt reduction, but the Board gave assurances and are therefore committed. Assuming the debt targets are reached, the size of the integrated TMIP/Grind fleet still looks to justify the acquisition, albeit the timing couldn't have been worse from a market perspective. I believe the sp is very much in "wait & see" mode until TMIP can deliver efficiencies from the takeover.
I sold some here at 88p in January ahead of the half-year results, having become nervous about the debt etc. I'm looking to buy them back at 68p to reduce my average again.
I am down 15% on this share , and I don't really know why ...at the time an 8% dividend yield on a discount to NAV of approaching 50% felt like an attractive proposition. ..
Reading many of the contributions on here , particularly regarding the index rate increases , I would have expected a steady increase in SP rather than the reverse
Debt isn't really too high , prudent move to reduce it , although funded by revenue earning asset sales rather than surplus profits plus the reduction in NAV narrowing the discount , doesn't help the situation , but even allowing for this, the downward direction of the share price remains a mystery to me.
I do wonder if the additional Grinrod acquisition had a negative effect on the market confidence surrounding the share, but even this doesn't explain a halving of the share price of 12 months ago .
Do others on here feel the same as I do , or is there an elephant in the room which I don't know about ?
Candid ..
Thanks all, my dividend has also now appeared in my HL account.
BHSI up 1.29% today to 548, that is now 17.35% down YTD. in contrast the BDI hit a 5 week low on Friday but is up today and is now down 4.41% YTD. Still very much focused on news out of China.
OK thanks ffl, noted. It's not my info, it was copied & pasted from HL Q&A. I often find these things are out of date though so happy to stand corrected.
Mine received too, thanks.
Re HL. I have received my divi today. There is usually a delay of a few days in it arriving.
FYI, I think your info re reinvestment charges is out of date. H L recently dropped charges for reinvestment of most share dividends.
Call from the above. Resolved, money in and an apology
Thanks for the heads-up Sam, I've sent them a secure message and will let you know how they respond. K
Mike, krusty , et al . Phoned the above this morning re non receipt of dividend. Was first told none was due. When I corrected them they checked and said their system said none was due and that therefore they had a problem on their system . They are now investing but can I suggest if other shareholders phone in it would perhaps give more encouragement to them to resolve this quickly . Sam
Hi Krusty , many thanks much appreciated . I will be using their reimbursement service as normally most places do that more cheaply than oneself doing it . Will do a quick cheque before though ! Thanks once again
Hi Sam, here's what HL says about reinvesting dividends in an ISA:
"Reinvest your income
With this option, any income will automatically be used to buy more of your investments once it reaches £10 per holding. If you’d like, you can choose your own reinvestment level between £10 and £1,000. Reinvestments are made between the 11th and 21st of each month. If you’d like any share income automatically reinvested, we charge 1% of the trade value (minimum £1, maximum of £10). There is no charge to reinvest fund income."
I think it's broadly similar for a normal trading account or a SIPP too. The key aspect is the "Reinvestments are made between the 11th and 21st of each month", which presumably is a quieter period for them. You could, of course, hold the dividend in cash and reinvest it yourself if you wished. I don't think the dealing costs would be significantly different but worth checking. To do so you would have to change your instructions from "Automatically reinvest" to "Hold as cash". Hope this helps. K
Thanks Mike and Krusty,appreciated. Annoying they then take so much time to reinvest as the share cannot drift forever.
Same here, I'm also with HL and nothing received yet. I often find it takes an extra day (or occasionally two) to process overseas dividend shares, probably due to the conversion. I wouldn't worry about it. The SP is still drifting, so you might end up with more shares if reinvesting the divi.
Hi Sam, I am also with HL and I have not yet received my divi.
Normally they are very good.
Hi Sam, I am also with HL and I have not yet received my divi.
Normally they are very good.
I have yet to receive this . I Only this year moved these shares to Hargreaves Landsowne. Is anyone else with them and received/not received shares ? Many thanks Sam
All, good that we all chip in.
I agree with the concerns over China, the property market which accounts for about 25% of the economy is in a real mess at the moment threatening businesses, local government and possibly spreading to the banking sector while the central government seems unwilling or unable to do too much about it.
The average Handysize spot time charter rate is currently around $9,500/day which is above breakeven for TMIP if not quite Grindrod., we need this good run to continue .
Thanks Mike, useful points from all. In further study this morning China seems to be shipping a bit more and the Panama canal has serious delays meaning ships are now going round the Cape which reduces supply. In 10 days the handy index rose from approx 7000 a day to 10,000 a day . It cooled off end of last week ever so slightly but yesterday saw a real jump in paper freight forwards and also in parts of the physical spot market. In looking at yards quoted delivery dates for handysize and ultramax (the two segments Taylors and Grndrod are in ) are 2027 at a price of plus US$30m which is historically high. In summary rising rates, ship supply constraints , and China improvement are all grounds for optimism. I also noticed Grindrod shipping release their latest earnings results on Sept 5 after New York market closure. I am still waiting for todays dividend from Hargreaves L but as earlier said will be reinvesting. Good fortune to all !
Thanks Mike, you have a much better grasp of the situation here than myself and I appreciate the way you set out the case for the future. I personally see some more downside to come on the SP, China as usual stirs the pot and it’s not always an appetising smell that wafts our way. A further deep breath required I think and hopefully things will be clearer by the year end?
Very interesting and informative. Thanks guys. This one is on my watch list for sure.
I agree that the NAV at 30th June was £1.23 when the share price was 75p so that was a 39% discount. But in April -June the NAV fell 8.85% and I think the market is expecting a similar or even bigger percentage fall in the current quarter.
The BHSI has increased for the last 15 days and is today 514 and for July to date averaging 422, if we assume say 550 for the remainder of this quarter this would give a quarter average of around 465, but the April-June BHSI average was 683 so the current quarter is likely to be about 20% lower than the previous quarter. So I expect the net operating performance to be a loss of around $5 million or1.2 cents/share then "normal" vessel depreciation is around 1% every quarter (it actually fell 5.7% in the previous quarter)which would lose around $8-9 million or say 2.5 cents/share so overall I am expecting July-September NAV to be down about 4 cents or about 3p on the previous quarter.
So the share price drop so far this quarter has been 7p while I only expect the NAV to be down around 3p. I could easily be wrong in my calculation but I think that the economic news out of China continues to spook this sector so I expect the share price to be at a 40%+ discount to NAV when the current quarter NAV is published on 25th October.
As always it is good to exchange ideas with each other!
As of June 30th nav per share was £1.23
Do any of you guys have a NAV figure pencilled in for TMIP? Regards
I have been doing the same and will do again tomorrow with the dividend. The indexes have been strengthening every day and are now well off their lows. Also a couple of peer companies have reported good figures. I must admit I am surprised at the continued weakness but I also see it as a buying opportunity for a young ambitious company. Time will tell. But will be interested in what Mike has to say as well as he is far more knowledgeable on shipping than myself.... although I attempting to learn at pace !