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Hi Mike, very pleasing but handysize which is majority of fleet very small rise …… but will take it without a doubt !
HI Sam, Baltic handysize index actually up today, the first increase so far this month.
In last few days Stifl, a US investment company have recommended Taylor Maritime, particularly at this entry share price point. In studying the share and RNS's the CEO and family have between them in the region of 25 million shares. That is a lot of skin in the game. Update towards the end of the month. Indexes stabilising today.
It’d be fantastic if this went up 3% tomorrow as well - take us into the 70’s.
Hi riverboy, thank you and the same to you . The company I was referring too was barracuda in the Marshall Islands which has taken a stake in the company . Nevertheless always interested in anything the company has to say for itself . Bst wishes Sam
Morning Krusty and Sam, hope you had a great break and best wishes for this New Year we are ploughing through at a rate. I looked and looked about the RNS and in the end I sent an email to TM investor centre and asked the question “what is the relationship between TMIP & TMIL, when I have a response will post here.
Exactly my thoughts without further information
Seem to be completely under the radar Sam, bit worrying really. Let's hope they don't take a significant stake.
Does anyone know anything about this outfit . Cannot locate anything
Thank you riverboy. And you
Desperately frustrating, let’s hope for a better New Year. A very happy Christmas and a prosperous New Year to all on here!
Now that IS good news Mike. Happy Crimbo
Hi, I agree that over the last few days the buys far outweigh the sells on TMIP but that only accounts for TMIP so we also need to take account of the share trades on TMI which tends to be less trades in total but average more share for each trade (the only trade so far today is a sell).
If you want something to make you smile then have a look at app.powerbi.com for the Baltic Exchange Handysize Index. On page 2 of 3 the graph is now showing spot TC's last week at $16,340/day as the average of 7 routes but with the Atlantic at $23,057/day while on page 3 the average spot TC for December so far is $15,518/day which is higher than any December since 2018 except for 2021.
Hi river boy, bottom line is supply and demand . Basic economics. If latter greater than former price goes up . Lot of publicity about routes but looked at where are vessels are today and we are not impacted . Also charter rates stabilised but no dramatic moves . V v frustrating
Hi Sam, I just cannot understand what is going on here, the sells were totally insignificant the buys were steady and consistent yet we are told that the market sets the rates, otherwise “supply and demand”. There are guys here that have a much clearer understanding of this company, perhaps we might get some clarity?
Buys far out way sells yet price drops . But my usa ahares had a great day . I am so steadily falling out with the London market !
Hi Riverboy, I don't think so, the situation in the Red Sea and possibly avoiding the Suez canal is actually positive for TC,s by keeping vessels busier for longer. Just the normal northern hemisphere lull.
Even then, for most vessels and Crew, Christmas day is just another working day!
Hi , think Mike is right. Very much down to approach of Chinese New year and seasonal slowdown. It was referred to in the last company release as they were planning to 'lock in' as many vessels as possible in anticipation of this. I also remain firmly of the view that this is by far the best board on here. One company I hold has degenerated appallingly such that I no longer bother with it. Long may this board continue in such a friendly and constructive manner where we can all hopefully learn from one another. Happy Christmas to all .
Hi Mike is the index down reflecting the growing problems in the Red Sea? If so it could be in decline for a while with five container companies now forgoing the Suez Canal?
Hi CI, I have learnt the hard way over the years and totally agree that cash is real but that current assets and current liabilities can be manipulated! Just a few weeks ago one shipping pundit commented that shipping businesses rarely go bankrupt because they are unprofitable but rather that they run out of money!
TMIP's problem at the moment is that operating profit is now on a knife-edge (but now improving) but that vessel values are a massive lottery, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose which just reflects that the shipping business is highly cyclical . Most of the assets are in vessels (they are not fixed assets but not quite current assets but nearer the latter than the former in my view?). With your previous role do you agree? The business values the vessels every 3 months using 2 independent valuations and the acid test is that vessel sales have only been 3.3% below their book values.
Like you I am nervous on where we are heading. The BHSI is up 36% YTD but today is down for the first time in a few weeks so I suspect this is the belated start of the Christmas/New Year slow down an approaching Chinese New Year. Traditionally the index is always tough AT this time of year and Q1.
As you say, GLA and seasons greetings!
Hi Mike , what I would add to the turnover analogy being for vanity and profit for sanity , being an ex FD cash is king ...so turnover and profits apart , cash flow is the reality ...I look for cash profits which removes so called " exceptional " items which seem to be a perennial thing...always boosting adjusted EPS...the reality is the current dividend level isn't funded by cash profits, but by asset sales, which is never a good sign
That's why I was wanting to know what the tonnage capacity now was ...the increases in rates is very welcome ..and should boost cash profits ...yes they did pay far too much for Grinrod . hindsight is a wonderful thing ..I would have liked to see a little " foresight " directors are very well paid , so you would expect more from their judgements about such matters , having said that , it is what it is , and I don't think the management team are bad in any way ..they seem quite competent , like you say , many variables are out of their control , so it isn't their fault ..like you say , in time, the cycle will reverse...25% loan to value debt, isn't too onerous , and interest rates appear to have peaked , so it possible that better times lie ahead ..let's hope so
Good luck all ..
Chaps, as one of my old MD's used to say "turnover is for vanity but profit is for sanity". There were several potential buyers for Grindrod which eventually stepped out leaving TMI as the winner. With perfect hindsight I agree with you that they bought just after the shipping cycle had peaked and was clearly on the way down and clearly the Grindrod NAV has fallen quite a bit since then and interest rates have dramatically increased and vessel values reduced. I suppose the reality is that TMI could not have known just how far the shipping cycle could drop and they are steadily squeezing out cost savings which benefit the bigger group. If I remember rightly they $21 for each Grindrod share (plus $5/share from the cash in Grindrod) and today you can buy the same Grindrod share on Nasdaq for around $9/share, so that does not look good. But don't forget that nearly 17% of the Grindrod shareholders decided not to sell and are sitting on the same paper loss. Technically TMI could now buy a chunk of these shares on Nasdaq/JSE at around $9 each which is a substantial discount to NAV.
One of the big takes out of the HI TMI results was that once they get the debt ratio below 25% then they would probably stop net selling vessels (possibly buying a few newer vessels and selling a similar number of older vessels) and that they would then consider some share buy backs. The TMI discount to NAV was over 36% on 7th Dec and if the NAV for the current quarter increases as I recently suggested then even with the share price now up to about 70p , then that could represent over a 40% discount to NAV when the number is out in late January.
So it is all about timing, the takeover does not look a success but in 3....6....12 months who knows. Eagle Bulk was trading at a discount to NAV, incidentally they were one of the possible Grindrod buyers last year, but with the announced takeover by Star Bulk , the shares are now up around the NAV level.
All the information you need to answer these questions is on their website financial report dated 11 December.
One thing which I would like to know, which I think is very important..what is the present tonnage capacity of the whole fleet , and how does this compare with what the tonnage capacity was prior to the Grinrod acquisition ...this isn't easy to ascertain after all of the asset sales that have taken place
But in essence , has the combination of both the acquisition , but subsequent disposals increased revenue earning capacity or reduced it ? If it reduced it then why on earth did they acquire it. Grinrod debt is I believe far higher on a look through basis that TMIP was prior to acquisition .
I am just trying to understand the strategic aim behind the acquisition . Being an ex Finance Director I am generally wary of acquisitions , they increase debt , rarely achieve the synergies assumed , and very often just pander to the vanities of the Board ..well it's very exciting buying things isn't it , when these things are company acquisitions , then that makes excellent conversations at dinner parties , to impress your guests doesn't it .. yes I jest, but don't dismiss it .
Thanks Krusty ..useful information and that makes sense ...you are right though Mike regarding volumes of transaction ..share transactions in the American listing (TMI) are far higher that in TMIP ,