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Let’s me quickly clear up for all the hillbillies and beer bellies including myself on here about shorters.
Shorters = gamblers
They take a gamble of the stock falling, yes some evidence helps them decide to take this position and if you 7ft 7” hard guys out there that get scared everytime you hear the word “ short” need to read the papers from 2 days ago .....
Some of the largest and most intelligent finds got burnt $1.2 billion in Tesla stock that had short positions and are not out of the woods , shows you they get it wrong most of the time.
Personally I believe that comparing TLW to other stocks like Zagreb is wrong because :
1: oil price is high and will stay high
2: assets are huge and can raise good money
3: too many positive catalysts to come within the next 3-6 weeks.
4: they wont just lay down on results day in March ... watch out for the surprise and for god sake it’s TULLOW oil at 55p ???? Wake up .... all of us that wanted to buy this stock at £12 but couldn’t now finding pathetic excuses to not buy now. I’m in with half a truck load and fully expect the sp to bag atleast once by March and 3x by the year end.
Well done! I hope you are right!!
Truthfully
Logically speaking you are correct, I agree with everything you have said.
However after Several ups and downs expecially the last one after a RNS it's obviously controlled by a large organisation.
If that organisation wants to fold Tlw I believe after this weeks performance it can.!!
Equally it could take back to the top!!
50 / 50 bet?
I'm on energy 88, so far recovered most of losses from Tlw.
I'm also on Lekoil as of yesterday.
Better odds by far
Ps wish I stayed with enquest from 2 months ago.
Dave / Lot of good news in the pipeline with TWL , folk have started taking a position to make maximum gains here , it seems March could well be the start of massive gains here . you have done well but the minnows have their news then it is a long waiting game , TWL have a lot of operations going on with some serious share price changing news 2020 .GLA
Key Group Holdings hold a lot of big Oil and Gas players stock.
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/key-group-holdings-cayman-ltd
Geoup Holding and Operating companies in Cayman. Service companies in a city near you/ us.
I was reading in the press the other week that Crispin Odey didn't do too well last year - lets hope that continues and that some positive news comes out here soon and catch the shorters out.
Treacle24,
Crispin's not short here anymore. Hes had some very good wins recently. He goes long too. Plus500 and SPD for example.
Given Crispin is a perma bear I think his performance is pretty impressive. Although if you had invested in his Odey Swan fund last year you would have lost 20% I think.
The offshore vehicle maybe didnt do so well but the management probably did ok. Woodford did ok. But his reputation is in the doodoo
From this level the stock has the potential to substantially outperform. However, management need to look harder at what can move the dial and ultimately as an E&P stock that is exploration.
It is a shame they have over stretched taking a shot at Peru when other priorities lay elsewhere. The potential to get funding to develop smaller fields isnt the same as once was and the Majors want Elephants to get good economies of scale which Tullow can then sell down for some cash and a CapEx carry and smaller holding.
Their key field that is advanced enough to do that is Guyana - they've 2 fields there they can work on quickly and the industry is genuinely excited about. Dorothy has mentioned monetising assets on both calls she has done - to do it in Guyana without further drilling would be nuts unless the deal was excellent.
Unless Dorothy takes the ceo job, she will continue to play the stewardship role and Guyana lead is Total or CNOCC. Think last weekend we estimated 25 cents pbl selling tlw interest for $1.4bn.
I am firmly of the view to sell all 2C resources such as Guyana, Uganda and Kenya. It is an absolute pain in the backside building large infrastructure for an oil business in countries that do not have the infrastructure and experience to quickly develop competently on their side of the table. This leads to cost overruns and an array of additional risks including geopolitical. The number one priority is to halve the debt asap. The reduced long term oil price projections is a big red flag. They should then concentrate maximising the efficiency of existing production assets. Peru and Suriname drilling keeps certain staff occupied while the company decides how extensive an exploration team they need and it probably complies with on-going contract agreements. A lower debt profile de-risks the company substantially and that 7% interest on debt converts towards a future divi restoration instead.
You say sell it because it is a pain these big infrastructures, but then why would someone else want to buy it if it is too much of a problem.
It's not such a big problem for the 'majors' - they have the funds to develop and it's only a small part of their portfolio.
Tornadotony
The monetization of assets will contribute to debt reduction ultimately and if this can be done with the benefit of a carry it also has a positive impact on future cashflows. They need to keep the lights on going forward and establish new cash streams to improve the 3 or 4 year look forward valuation. Doing that while reducing the debt should allow the company/board to retain much more control of their own destiny.
FWIW- if sharks are circling, a big bang drill can completely change the bidding prospects and up the quantum in the models needed to demonstrate shareholder value.
Tullow just needs to stay independent until a price boom. The oil pruce had been in an extended slump thanks to Wall Street funded over supply from the US. The available data suggests that could change markedly over next 1-3 years, possibly beginning as soon as Q2 this year.
I hope so, but this feels bold. Saudi can turn on the taps at whiff of any supply constraint
OPEC has always been slow to open. up the taps in the past. The next periodof high oil prices are still likely to be subdued compared to prior cycles but still at prices that will greatly benefit producers and spur investment that has been so lacking.
To noggers,
There is a huge difference between a TOTAL, Chevron, CNOOC and a company like Tullow with under 1000 employees. The really big companies have the additional resources to spend time actually working through all the interconnecting complexities of the project development. They have a greater contingency reserve so when a mistake happens it usually gets fixed quickly where as a smaller company may resolve one problem but then neglect elsewhere and fall into the next elephant trap. So what is likely to be far more risky for Tullow does not translate as an equal risk. Tony
Mmm
Not too sure that's quite true ,when a big company needs to change direction off plan its a massive undertaking, bit like the old oil tanker turning analogy , wheres as smaller company can be reactive and more nimble. That's kind of a fact in business, smaller companies can react quicker .