Member Info for hey_arnold

What you have written is illogical. Why should someone not be able to short a stock, if they can go long it? Yes I am short, I'm also right about whats happening, and you WILL lose money.

P.s JonHarris is an idiot and doesn't know what he's talking about. He just puts out random numbers without having a clue. Please ignore him or you will lose money.

All the bullish people in here need to take a step back and look at what is happening. Energy prices are sky high and this is only the summer. Wait until people get their bill for winter once their heating has been turned on for long periods (which will be astronomically high), then lets see how many clothes or any other consumer product they buy. Everyone is saying this is priced into the stock, I can assure you it is not. I expect multiple profit warnings and ultimately expect they will need to raise from investors as already mentioned, and they wont do it in the bond market given rising rates and therefore the cost to service the debt.

Hows your saga investment doing ryanf? You still doubling down on that one? good luck

Nothing that the bank of England can do will magic more gas molecules into Europe, prices will stay high for years, continuing to put significant pressure on UK/European economies. Remember first inflation was 'transitory' and then it kept going higher. The reason the bank of england were saying that is to try and stop wage inflation increasing, but given prices will stay high for a long time, I guarantee wage inflation will be next, which you could argue is bullish this sector as people will have more disposable income but ultimately, high inflation and rising interest rates are going to cripple the economy. So good luck with your £20+ long positions in any retailer.

Will be an even better opportunity at 500.

Isnt me spouting 500 exactly the same as you spouting 1500? I'm short the sector, just offering an opinion on why I dont think the low is in here.

sorry scallop, what is BS? The fact im bearish asos or that I'm short boohoo?

just providing an alternative view. And yes, you are right, I will unwind some of the boohoo short.

have one on boohoo. Probably should have split them 50/50.

I dont have a position here but I suspect 500 by year end is more likely. I think they will end up needing to raise cash, I dont think the current cost of living crisis can be fixed quickly.

This seems to sell off when European/UK gas prices rise, so worth keeping an eye on this:
https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5408202
Russia is cutting flows further so all of Europe is going to feel the pain.

Agree its holding well. Someone big doesnt want it falling. I still think it will as energy prices (gas & elec) have gone up a silly amount in the past two days on a further tightening global supply/demand balance. Wishing I'd locked in my fixed rate energy bill earlier. Nevermind! GL all

The economy is about to go down the toilet into winter. I think the entire stock market is about to go with it.

Given ASOS is at £8 already, how would they place at £12, makes no sense.

This is basically a bet on how long you think inflation will last for. If you think it could drop soon (it wont), then yes this is probably a good level to get in at. However if you believe QE and then more recently the war in Russia has structurally changed the energy markets leading to high prices for a long time into the future, then there is a real risk this will need to raise capital. Consumer discretionary as a sector is getting squeezed via input costs and also by less spending as consumers salaries get eroded by inflation. Yes the share price reflects some of this, however, I think this has the potential to half again from where it is currently given the macro outlook.

Basically we dont have enough gas currently to get us through the winter in the UK and Europe.

European Gas market used to recieve, 1/3 gas from Russia,1/3 LNG and 1/3 from Norway. Now Russia has almost turned off the taps to gain leverage over the EU going into winter, due to all the sanctions. There isnt enough gas globally to offset the reduced volumes of russian gas sent to europe. Here is a link to European gas prices, look at the chart for three months: https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5396828

Energy trading, so I have watched this all unfold from much higher prices.

High energy prices are here to stay unfortunately, so this probably has further to fall. Gas prices have risen 60% in the past week.