Member Info for hey_arnold

The entire market is ****ting the bed on a relative basis this is doing well. Depends on your view on macro.

Title was meant to be energy prices.

For what its worth, lockdowns are tanking oil and I suspect gas is very likely to fall again soon (I work in natgas trading). Which should relieve pressure on the consumer discretionary. Man group put a note out they also thought there should be support for the sector with government subsidies. I think commodity price inflation peaked a few months ago, so this looks a nice entry point if you dont want to be in cash. Good luck all.

I would suggest others have a quick look at your posts just so they can see all the levels you screamed buy at.*

Claire you have been saying buy for so long eventually you will be right. I would suggest others have a look a quick look at your posts just so they can see all the levels you screamed buy at.

But on this occasion it is a buying opportunity.... Good luck all.

Man Group:
Headlines in the UK portray nothing but doom and gloom for the UK consumer (and thus the economy). However, scratch beneath the surface, and all is not lost. There are strong reasons for optimism: a reasonable chance of high wage growth to offset rising costs for consumers, a large stock of money supply and a government which is unlikely to stand idly if energy bills threaten to destroy consumer spending.

https://www.man.com/maninstitute/lost-energy-crisis-uk-consumer

Technicals are right until they are wrong. Fundamentally there is still deep value here, and it's slowly playing out. Time will tell who is right.

Bought some more here today. I think the market has been too aggressive on its margin compression and sales assumptions. I think we have priced close to a worse case inflation scenario.

Daily movements aren't really what this is about unless you are trading it. Everyone has a different strategy so your comment is pointless, as are most on here, including this one.

Given there is increasing chance of a Russian oil ban I think the risk reward here is massively skewed to the upside.

Days like today are just day traders taking profit because they see 60p as a level that they believe is resistance and that this will correct to. Fundamentals will play out in due course as previously stated by others.

and last thing, i'm sure people are trading this just looking at intraday moves of front month oil, but this is stupid in my opinion, and ultimately leaving your investment here to grow is the best strategy.

the move in oil to date and the spikes have been credit driven with little spec participation. The next move higher will be fundamentally driven and participation from funds.

Fair value is much higher and for everyday oil stays at these levels, that discount to the sector will be eroded.

Fundamnetally oil very structurally bullish all along the the curve. Technically there is a lot of support around 100. TLW trading at a very large discount to the sector with significant upcoming catalysts. Risk reward here is a no brainer even at 60.

Fair value here is around 98p

Fair Value here is closer to 1800

ASOS results out this morning. Only posting this here as well, as there is read across.

Barclays, Emily Johnson (equal-weight)
Although there are many reasons to stay cautious, the 1H results don’t seem to provide “many incremental negatives”
The company’s outlook is “suitably hedged” given the current operating environment

Berenberg, Michael Benedict (buy)
Asos is “well positioned” compared to retail peers when it comes to risks around broader discretionary spending
A reacceleration in growth over 2H, along with the appointment of a new CEO, would be “attractive” near-term catalysts

Jefferies, Andrew Wade (buy)
The performance was “mixed” in a “challenging” market
Company-compiled consensus estimates excluding Russia are already at the low end of implied guidance

RBC, Sherri Malek (outperform)
The results are “underwhelming” and the market will probably stay cautious on the consumer outlook, despite Asos maintaining its FY guidance
Asos is “fundamentally undervalued,” but macro-economic risks will probably weigh on the stock in the near term

I went long this morning having been bearish the sector the past 12-18months.

Barclays, Emily Johnson (equal-weight)
Although there are many reasons to stay cautious, the 1H results don’t seem to provide “many incremental negatives”
The company’s outlook is “suitably hedged” given the current operating environment

Berenberg, Michael Benedict (buy)
Asos is “well positioned” compared to retail peers when it comes to risks around broader discretionary spending
A reacceleration in growth over 2H, along with the appointment of a new CEO, would be “attractive” near-term catalysts

Jefferies, Andrew Wade (buy)
The performance was “mixed” in a “challenging” market
Company-compiled consensus estimates excluding Russia are already at the low end of implied guidance

RBC, Sherri Malek (outperform)
The results are “underwhelming” and the market will probably stay cautious on the consumer outlook, despite Asos maintaining its FY guidance
Asos is “fundamentally undervalued,” but macro-economic risks will probably weigh on the stock in the near term