Member Info for hey_arnold

what tehnical level is that downbutnotout?

I disagree. They are specialists in their sectors, but they don't always have a handle on the bigger picture because of their specialisation.

So is China locking down because there vaccines are bad or is it because its a new strain and they are trying to keep it quiet.

Funds are taking long positions here, that's why we are moving up.

Who cares, report, ignore and dont give profile to those posters.

Why is there going to be a ceasfire when sanctions are going to be increased?

FTSE250 is down hence this moving down, its nothing company specific. Yesterday the smart money was buying the dip here as oil fell. Lots of value here, no need to micro analyse every move, thats how you lose money. As already discussed plenty of further upcoming catalysts here with oil reaming structurally bullish.

And general headwinds affecting the whole sector (Boohoo, Asos et al). Inflation squeezing margins and consumer spending.

ASR I think the main overhang on the stock is the court case.

Tullow Oil upgraded to buy from hold at Peel Hunt on the “highly accretive” acquisition of assets from Occidental that closed earlier this month.
Analyst Matt Cooper values the acquisition at 27p/share versus the 6p/share that Tullow paid for the assets

Had only previously trimmed rating on Tullow to hold on valuation grounds, but remained positive on its assets, strategy and management

Acquisition plus the shares lagged the oil price rally drives upgrade to buy, PT to 80p from 65p

I suspect they will profit warn again driven by lower sales and further rises in input costs. That's when we will see 50-60.

It feels like a lot of day traders/market makers are playing ranges here. Eventually the fundamentals will play out.

The oil curve is heavily backwardated (Spot is the highest price) this is to incentivise max supply today and sign of a tight market. What will start to happen soon, is the market will realise that there is limited flex for balance of 2022 and cal2023 do satisfy growing demand and the forward curve will move up. So for all those holding I would say be patient, this will re-rate, but require oil prices high for longer, which is exactly what we are going to get.

Why is it the opposite NMW?

Boohoo's price elasticity of demand means it is difficult to pass on higher costs to the customer and will result in lower sales from higher priced clothes. Ultimately unless wages increase by more than inflation, then real purcahsing power of the consumer decreases. Given the demographic that buys Boohoo clothing, they will be more sensitive to this.

My worry if I was long here (as with most sectors) is that macro headwinds (inflation) will result in rates rising so much that we choke of economic growth and we see a large correction in the equities markets.

Inflation continues to be be a drag on this sector. Rising input costs and reduced disposable income on consumers will keep pressure on margins and reduce sales. With inflation continuing to surprise to the upside, I dont believe the argument that everything has already been priced correctl here, and continue to expect downward pressure, fair value is likely around 50-60p over the next 12months.

Thanks ladies/gents. Constructive analysis here.

Tullow Oil completed the pre-emption related to the sale of Occidental Petroleum’s interests in the Jubilee and TEN fields in Ghana to Kosmos Energy.
The cash consideration paid on completion was $118m, reflecting closing adjustments, and was funded from cash on the balance sheet
The transaction takes Tullow’s equity interests to 38.9% in the Jubilee field and to 54.8% in the TEN fields, and adds ~5k b/d of unhedged daily production
This equates to ~4k b/d on an annualized basis and increases 2022 group production guidance to 59k-65k b/d
The additional equity also increases Tullow’s 2022 capex forecast by $30m to $380m and is seen generating ~$300m incremental free cash flow at $75/bbl in 2022-2026

Morgan Stanley Raises Oil Forecast by $20 on Supply Shortfall
 Morgan Stanley raised its oil-price forecasts for the latter half of this year and 2023, citing tighter supply-demand balances worldwide. 
The bank increased its the third-quarter estimate for Brent crude to $120 a barrel, up from a previous prediction of $100. The sharp adjustment was due to “relentlessly drawing global inventories,” analysts including Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant said in a note.
($/Bbl) 3Q 4Q 2023
New 120 110 100
Previous 100 100 95