Member Info for hey_arnold

Hi DB, what do you mean by 'industry contribution'? Thanks

They wont, this is a structural short driven by rising costs, that look unlikely to abate in the near term. Any near term momentum will be sold into on the expectation of further profit warnings.

I think the moment the physical market signals tightness then the paper market will fly... I don't believe the current oil price is pricing the impact of lower russian supply next month.

Tullow never priced 130k per barrel and the forward curve didn't move that much, so I believe that 40 is unrealistic, but I have been wrong quite a bit here, so don't take this as investment advice.

Yep I did exactly the same £10k.

Is Claire still here telling everyone to buy?

Really appreciate it.

Seakingalpha, Again thanks for the insight. In your opinion why is the market unwilling to price more into any of those three events occurring? Do you think its because of the level of debt, does that still make this quite a big punt? What would you say are the key risks over the next 12-18months and what would make you change your view?

Thank you seekingalpha, you info is very informative. It feels like the market is low balling everything given recent performance so until we get upside surprises this might struggle to re-rate. Would you agree?

Isn't lots of speculative drilling the thing that got Tullow into the mess to start with? Stabilising production of current assets in a high oil price environment seems a better strategy to me, given the level of debt.

The defining element of Tullow's 2022 performance will be its excessively risk-averse hedge book following last year's refinancing -- with about 60% of its 2022 sales volume locked at an average ceiling of $78 a barrel --undermining exposure to oil-price upside. A supportive commodity backdrop is contributing to a further easing of balance-sheet risk, though net debt and leverage remain above comfort levels. That makes deleveraging a primary strategic objective, with the 1.5x leverage target unlikely to be achieved until end-2023. Higher 2022 capital spending of $350 million reflects accelerating drilling activity in Ghana, but it isn't translating into near-term operational performance, with broadly flat, underwhelming production guidance this year (prior to pre-emption)

Also with regard to Odey buying back, that is purely so he had more firepower today.

I think the forward looking statements are actually the most important...... Ghana, no changes to 2023 hedges, 5kbd potential increase in production. Oil at current price.... etc etc.

Its meaningless. I don't get why people constantly looking at buy/sells. Chill, don't waste your day.

agreed

UK to ban oil imports from RU

65 the next one to break if we can hold here.

Where is the next technical target ?

China willing to coordinate with EU on Ukraine.

more than that actually, pulling back from russia completely.