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Lucky
Where to next then?? THS? BOD? SLP?
Thanks CM great post and appreciate you speak your mind, is the best way for every reader here to assess the situation and contribute..... Imo with Tga something material has changed with SA fund starting to sell. That was not factored in before hence my risk/reward was positive, is not only because I was at breakeven with my investment. I suppose if I was 50/100% in profit I could have decide to hold on a little longer.... On of the first commandment of investing is: First don't lose money. I suppose that comes before first make money. I am also watching closely the main indexes which can never be overlooked. So what's next? As mentioned I have also sold 3 very good US steel maker, i timed my entry completely wrong. They are all on my radar Tga, first of all, I might look a bit more at Relative Strength Index indicator now and other tech. To re_entry, also for the steel maker next supposedly very good numbers are out end October and may play the news release on them. For Tga a good entry would be 300ish if it gets there. Also many miners Majors and non imo are reaching good entry point and will keep an eye on them....
Hi LuckyLuciano, I am in exactly the same opinion as your good self. I sold all my holdings in Thungela on Friday after the RNS came out and the drop on the US markets. I am prepared to buy in at a higher price if need be, but I feel with the selling of SA Fund and the down market in general, it is a chance I want to take. I don't know when the SA fund will stop selling. I will be buying in also at 300 - 305 if it goes that low. If not, then I will buy in at a higher price than I sold for. A lot of Coal stocks have been dropping in the last few days and I want to see if they continue to drop over the next week of two. By the way my portfolio is/was 75% Thungela that is how confident I am in the long term, but short term I want to wait on the sidelines.
Good luck to everyone on here.
Lucky..The first rule of investing is and should be the number one rule for all investors.. Which is of course the less you lose, the more you win.!!!!. I learnt that the hard way but once I got to understand the rule, I made more money....However, I learnt it from betting professionally on the horses and those racing profits are what I invest here. I also have non-share investments which provide me with a consistent residual income but like shares because if you do undertake very detailed research on a company, you can make money...As many here have stated TGA is probably a unique share but not unique enough to avoid a pullback after recent gains.
I would be delighted to see a pull back as then I will be back into TGA but it will be impossible to get the timing right IMO, but as long as I get in at less than I got out which was Friday, I will be happy. My intention is to lock TGA shares away as I want the dividend, even if long term I believe the price of thermal coal will stablise at a lower level...Finally, your handle unfortunately causes you grieve amongst posters just as mine does
So we have a few investors selling wanting a lower price for re entry and prepared to pay more if need be. I will be seeing what happens next week although still in doubt to sell as the divi is keeping me in I cannot see this going below £3.10 I feel with the drop from £3.5 range the selling of SA has already been mopped up by the market.
Good day all
US steel is an area I have never even thought of investing in, and lucky, I sincerely hope you haven’t mistimed your exit from them as they have cheap and plentiful energy supplies which most countries and definitely Western Europe don’t have.
Quite a few of us declaring 'out' positions on Friday then.
Will be very interesting to see what occurs on Monday.
GLA
Dabbler1 what's your take on US steel... Kind of conundrum right now, cooking coal going up but also steel price near all time high, China cutting steel productions was a bonus... Will it last?
Lazzy your analogy with horse racing bets, make me believe that you have more a Montecarlo Casino approach to investing, hence down to probabilities. Many hedge fund use this approach making lots of small gains or whatever their computer model tells them, theses are automated trading that for a single brain human been are impossible to execute... Hence I personally having tried, stay out of spread betting etc...do look at technicals though and do some time trade purely on that info. It's difficult to get it right as often technical and fundamental speak a different language and tell a different story.
Kenny_G it's unbelievable same trading strategic and same 75% of portfolio . I too also had a look at other coal miners price on Friday, the sp drop for them is more likely due to the main US index, than anything else, but they have also rise quite sbstancially considering that last numbers they all made a loss. This SA fund has come out with 2 rns in a short space of time, not to deramp guys/girls but one can easily think there will be more... Or maybe not. They may want out (the SA) to clean their act so that they may get some money from IMF to help going green (big meeting coming up.. Someone posted) but these are all fantasies... Who knows. Anyhow interesting times folks.
LuckyLuciano, I had invested in Peabody and Alpha Metallurgic and sold them on Friday also at break even point.
Thungela by far is the share I have most optimism for and will buy back in very soon in several stages. I too, want to wait to see what the SA fund does. If they off load more shares, which I think they will, then Thungela will only go down, and if the general market takes a downturn, short term then it will go down more.
Long term this share will rise substantially as the PE is so low.
I have been burnt several times on spread betting and I have learnt it is not for me.
We will see what the week brings, we may have to eat our words and buy back in at a higher price.
I think for me, staying on the sidelines is a risk worth taking, even if it is just for a week or two.
I am also slightly worried about the high gas prices starting to filter into the national news which may adversely affect Thungela.
Kenny-G I am not sure in which way high gas price could affect adversely Tga, but anyway it seems be coming down from recent high, Russia promised to open the tap and possibly price should stabilized.
Imo what is intriguing for coal is what isaytomato posted earlier...
https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news-fast-news/rich-nations-head-to-south-africa-seeking-coal-exit-deal/
If is true that this meeting will take place, have to say some big weigh players are going to take a visit to Eskom SA.
With the UN Climate been set in Uk there will be some political will from western nation to bring something concrete to the table. Eskon debit is some $28bill, is a lot but compared to the trillions $ been printed recently, is not impossible that some finance will go Eskom way for it to phase out coal and go green.
For Tga this could be even better it all depends what restriction and request will be placed on SA mining and electricity production, IF all the above take place....indeed.
LuckyLuciano, high gas prices has made "Dirty" coal become more financially attractive because industries will not pay the high gas prices, this in turn has pushed up coal prices to record levels where we are today. National governments will try to bring gas prices back under control ( recent news) as it is in their interest for the consumer and they don't want an increase in coal demand for environmental reasons. It's all very political. I have also noticed coal prices have gone up again today.
I am not sure which way this is going to turn out as many industries in the middle order world still rely heavily on coal.