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In my response earlier I forgot to state that I am not making a recommendation of any kind, just realised my point sounded bearish, which is why I thought it appropriate to point out that I am long despite the challenging situation of the company.
Hi Hopan,
My penny's worth is that Synthomer still needs to stabilise its leverage in a challenging market for its products. As long as there are potential near term covenant breaches and/or debt maturities hanging over companies like these, they will trade like utter dogs. My personal sense is that we should be near the point where the company stabilises, and with a few non-core asset divestments, used to accelerate debt repayments, hopefully they can turn the corner and swiftly claw back some of the lost ground... But, as long as it looks like the creditors might end up having the company by the short and curlies due to covenant breaches, any sustained recovery in the SP feels unlikely.
If you look at the January trading statement they released, they specifically mention the need for resetting the covenants:
"Therefore, for prudence, we are progressing a dialogue with our lending banks to extend the period of temporary covenant relaxation to ensure that we maintain appropriate headroom while trading conditions remain subdued"
A very British way to say they are not out of the woods yet.
Either way, I remain positive and have built a stake here expecting them to make it, GL to all.
Hi WT…did not do anything with PTAL. Bought some CBG @ 290 and eying up more possibly. See that a little like WOSG where the market just crucifies news beyond reality of the situation. Shorters just jump in knowing funds have to move allocations.
Exited PFC as it seems it’s found its spot until there’s news. Just couldn’t break the 30p.
Hoping these chartists are on the money here!
I was down by 96% on the position, but fundamental looks still solid to me, hence doubled the position with a 10% stop loss, this time. I think bottom is in already - and rally is just starting same like 2009. At least I can see the technicals in the chart have lined up. But anything is possible 🤔😁
Hi UTTOM
BRING IT ON.
HOWDEY
PAY pays its dive in a couple of weeks, the planets are aligned for me to buy in the next couple of weeks
Talk me into buying some FCH
Did you take note, about getting a room, or did you look at PTAL they are already up 5%. I’m going to sell them just before x div day
HOWDEY
Did you notice POFCY rose 10% on Friday. I have traded in the same way with PFC now averaged down to 28p. I’m also expecting a big pay day.
VOD are a dilemma for me. It’s not all bad, it is well documented with Germany, Italy and the div is to high, if 2 out of these three are addressed. I could be the catalyst for the SP to improve. Should have bought some for 63p
I am trying to understand what was the main reason behind the latest drop from around 190 towards 120s in Jan. I am not an expert in these type of things but my humble theory is that the exclusion from some indeces and also new year reshuffle in at some large funds created a sell pressure of around 5 million shares. Since post RI, i.e. saturated buyers, and relatively low daily liquidity , and determined sellers created a big pressure on the price. These big funds do not care about price when they exit, so then 120 comes as a price.
Good evening all, with all due respect - synthomer has shown monthly macd breakout only 4 times in last 24 years. 2000, 2009, 2020 and 2024. Except 2024, every other time it show a 12/18 months rally with massive 3-10 times gain. Please buy hand over fist, this is the fourth time happening in last 24 years, extremely rare, please grab the opportunity to catch a potential ten bagger. Good luck folks.
Hi JW
It was quite a brutal RI. It seems an age I have been chasing these shares down. Buying and selling percentages of my holding, taking my stake out keeping the excess shares averaging down. Have now averaged down to 155. I have a monumental £127.56 Profit. I keep this up probably until the 12 march. We are in a perfect storm. Will be volatile until then. My goal to is to wait till the next decent pay day. I think the targets are to high quoted on this board are too high . £2.00 is achievable. When it gets there I will revaluate.
I will post about VOD, PAY, FCH shortly.
Strong finish today.. didn’t expect the pump last 30mins after poor PPI data from the US which caused it to go lower midday. We’re now well positioned into next week, just slightly above my key moving average which currently sits at 154p.
I’m pretty optimistic here. Hope we’ll print higher high on Monday around 160p 🤞
Further to my message . Volatility based upper Bollinger band was at 157 yesterday, and is rising at 1.0 daily, so assuming top band 158 today , gives a time target of 10 days for sp target of 168.7. Both Lower and upper bollinger band are moving upward implying relatively slow movement , however that may change, along with the timescale, if volatility increases usually represented, in the lower band dropping, while upper band rises, for the major trend up.
Symmetry of sp, movement requires a sp target of 168.7. The impulse to head towards the price target , was made today. When price broke above the 3 price pivots printed on the daily chart since 2/2/24. There is however overhead supply from previous trading volume at the area of the target price of 168.7, so expect resistance, or a retracement at that level.
The sector chart, is in an upward bullish , providing impetus to SYNT, as one of its constituents.
Do note that SYNT, does show secular downtrends on most charts, 5 year, 2 year, 1 year , 3 month, so a stop loss, perhaps based on a multiple of the average true range indicator, might be useful.
As we’ve just hit 156, now we need to see 160 for higher high to be printed. Once we get there, it’s a walk in the park
Could get to 30p today. I will post at the weekend
Hi WT,
Topped up Pfc at low 27. Will now sell some at 30 and hold balance for 34/35. Will buy Dark at 335. Bought more FCH @ high 26 so all in on that one now.
The penny profit trades just don’t pan out for me as the ones you have to bail out on are bigger losses.
Also some I build for future divi value in ISA. It’s how I see both MCG and this eventually and aside from capital growth you could easily see 10% plus divi on your original investment value. Still mulling VOD for this but seems commentary very split….bought BT for this as I think market is very confused over where it’s future revenue streams come from and hefty debt structure dragging on whole sector.
WT, not sure who cares about your valentines dinner and why you’re bringing it up.. but good for you ( I totally don’t care)
Hi GMHK
Talking of moving average. I had valentines dinner bought for me last night as it is leap year. If the SP drops to 145p I shall buy. I’m so close.
Hi JW
Where are you with DARK, PFC. I managed to buy some PFC at 27 and sold at 28. I may buy some DARK later.
Lol.. it’s a moving average level that matters to me more rather than anyone’s break even price
Hi gmhk
I glad you choose 155p, that’s my break even.
Plan for today would be to get the price well over 155 (might be too much to ask for in 1 day) which is **moving average** level that hasn’t been broken for ages. It would mark a significant progress in price recovery process
Analysts at Canaccord Genuity lowered their target price on chemicals business Synthomer from 350.0p to 300.0p on Wednesday as it effectively pushed out its expectations for the group's recovery by 12 months.
Canaccord Genuity said the September 2023 recapitalisation of Synthomer had left the group "well-placed to survive the current extended downturn". However, the outlook for the current year was still for limited progress.
"We are moving numbers to the right, effectively pushing the recovery out by a year; we now expect nearly all of the improvement in 2024E to be self-help, with better figures coming next year," said Canaccord Genuity. "The impact on our valuation is more modest, given that we now look well set for a sustained recovery in the chemicals industry, and we are effectively pushing out our valuation by one year".
The Canadian bank noted that Given Synthomer's equity gearing - at the current share price, the equity value sits at around 28% of the enterprise value - even a "quite modest" improvement in outlook or the successful execution of an asset sale could have "a very material impact" on the share price
No WINE is done now. I think 70p has taken it a bit too high/optimistic. It’s a nice little trading stock more than long term viability. Wines a tough game.
Good movement on Synt today…really hope it keeps the gain and slowly chases down that 197 for starters!
This is brilliant! Optimism is being pumped into the sector as we speak! Ignition on 🚀🚀🚀
If SYNT finishes today close to 150, it will be very good sign!
JW.. with regards to WINE.. never came across this company. It seems slightly overbought to me and it might hit some resistance at this level but definitely, this is what we’re waiting for SYNT to print