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The chart is looking so good that I’m considering allocating another £10k into this. If bought at 150p, this would lower my average further to 220p
This is the most bullish chart formation I can recognise and it’s printed once every few years.
Someone mentioned here they moved some kind of fine from December to January.. this is quite clever from the board as they won’t need to report in until second half of the year.
This board as well as the market has gone to sleep. I was going to let these run until closer to results. But i to have sold a few. The SP may have trading range at the moment of 135-145. That can change very quickly.
Chart looks beautiful on 1d and 4hr time frames following the push to 140 today. Let’s see what tomorrow brings 🚀
That is something they really could have done without !
A credit downgrade below BBB grade is an ouch.
That just put up there cost of borrowing & mad it much harder for them to negotiate there bank lending facility.
LOTM
I've sold a few just in case this gets taken back down again. More than likely retail has driven today. Still hold plenty so please make me totally wrong!
I’m pretty sure they want to buy cheaper shares. Not listening to those ratings, I’m playing by looking at the charts only.
I hope we end the day with price over 140. The price action right at this moment just move the sp over 140 🤞🤞🤞
Just added another £15k (total 25k today) which completes my buy strategy that adds 100% of my initial investment. My final average sits at 242p. Fingers crossed🤞Wish me luck as I have a feeling I will need a lot of it 😅
140 seems to be a fair barrier to break.. just calculating madly today.. if I added extra £15k here at 140, my avg would have been 240p. That would be 70% recovery from current level… achievable within 6 months I guess. The light at the end of the tunnel’s appearing stronger
Just added extra 3800 shares that brought my avg down further to 350 which is below the avg I would have achieved if I had taken my rights at 197p. BUT.. that would have cost me £25k as opposed to £10k I spent so far today
Hi Wigwammer
I pretty much agree with you. It is a difficult thing to do build a positions on a falling SP. I tail swallowed on the Ri. I have done the same with PFC, WIZZ, 888. SYNT is the only share I’m losing on with an average of 169p. The long and short of it. If the SP where Vulnerable or showed signs o weakness, you would have short position. There is none. That alone could be reason to buy.
Hi GMHK,
There are 7 Brokers who will now be looking at there numbers & thinking of producing updated guidance for there clients. That will take at least a few days.
Who knows what they'll come up with.
Good luck with your decision.
LOTM
I am a long term holder not a trader (don't have the skills). I have added 5,200 shares today to bring my average buying price to £5. There will be surely be movement around the current price, particularly since it seems to jump around on very small volumes. But my sense of the new management is caution and competence, although, of course, they need some luck on the timing of a demand upturn. Clearly a risky investment but so far so good. I will buy more shares if the price goes north of 200p, otherwise I wil hold.
I’m thinking of adding another £5k here today which would lower my avg further to 350p.
Does anyone see any fall from the cliff here again before the update in March?
On the chart, we’re about to break long term downtrend line that started in April 2023 but we need to break 140 barrier first
Walkie - I think this is a good recovery play over a 3 year period - they have decent market size and positioning - so the shares really could multiply if/when things improve. But given the debt, it is likely to be a bumpy and unpredictable ride short term - and I don’t think anyone has a great crystal ball predicting those bumps. Is it worth the wait? There are multiple valuation perspectives that suggest so IMO. I note the enterprise value is now around £750m - that’s around half what they paid for Eastman and Omnova combined - and that’s before mentioning the legacy business. So it seems a lot is priced in. Another perspective is on a recovered EBITDA multiple - they are still emphasising that £300m EBITDA is possible - put that on a conservative 6x and the equity is worth around 750p a share. The risks obviously are that things deteriorate further, they breach covenants and we get going concern warnings etc. But the banks have thus far proven supportive, recently extending terms to 2027, and they must be aware that chemical companies experience downturns as well as upturns. So it seems good risk/reward to me - but to repeat, I thought that at 70p old money too! GLA
I’m with GMHK
Where is the share price going?
We probably have wait until the next TU.
We should get a couple of broker upgrade. If there positive we might get 180p in the next few months.
ALL FOR ONE!
£10k bought today, selling at 200p
I can see a little bit of drama going on in the chat section here this morning 😆
How about people post their averages and their plan of action so some pre RI investors can see what others do?
I’m really not wrong, joseywales. Anybody who followed the advice given in your posts over the last 6 months or so would be sitting on highly material losses - starting around 500p new money. There is no evidence here of this great trading approach you repeatedly claim to possess… And the naysayers you dismissed this morning actually had a good point - Synthomer have simply moved payment of the fine into January. So not so much “naysaying” as “doing research and getting it right”… With regard to the fall off since 180p - that’s easy - the whole European chems sector has been under pressure, and being more geared than most, Synthomer suffers more given the weighting of debt in the EV… If/when we see recovery that leverage will work in the other direction - and fingers crossed that happens sooner than later… GLA
As to the muted price response and guesses around it ... I imagine a fund got wind of the fact that SYNT were talking to banks about extending the timeline of the covenant breathing room they currently have. Without knowing the entirety of the situation and typically low volume trade to easily execute an effective short, the fund shorted from 180ish down to 120s and it's their algo we're been seeing in recent weeks. You could assume that no big buyer will appear off a trading statement and will await the finals in March. So we have a period where that fund will slowly manage their exit or hedge into the results presentation.
You're flat out wrong Wigwammer but I decided you were simply thrush a long time ago. You never got holding and trading. Maybe take your narcissism to another board that loves that stuff ... VAST used to be good for people like you ... go talk diamonds in the rough. Gutted I bit and will go back to ignoring you again.
This board is usually quiet with decent dialogue about the company and the usual stab in the dark as to ups and downs.
While we await JWBellamy’s illuminating post about Synthomer, can I suggest the main reason for the muted price response so far is the point I made earlier - they have simply moved the £38m fine payment into January 2024, thus reducing the year end net debt figure. Obviously this means however, that as of about now, they are starting with a net debt figure materially above the one reported this morning. ATB
JWBellamy.. I was recommending purchasing NOG well above the price, and well below it. Interesting that you don’t mention that, or McBride or GMS where I have multibagged over the last year. But this is the Synthomer board - do you actually have a point about Synthomer?
I agree GoCPI - this is a good recovery play, but I have also been saying that since 70p old money. My point is that the naysayers have been proven right, and only a plonker would repeatedly dismiss them (especially after he/she has been proven hopelessly wrong). Fingers crossed the recovery starts here. ATB