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Hello all. I really like this product and really like the chances of success here. I’m in for the long haul. Ignoring the noise, sounds like some are trying to get cheapies. Not from me. This is a no brainer. GLTA
The broker notes have Shield break even at about $90m revs. Forecast for 2024 was previously $62m revs which translates as ~330k prescriptions at ~$175 net price Rx ++ minimal royalty payments), to reach cash flow break even in 2025 without additional resources that'll need to be achieved at a minimum - are you confident of it?
Have a look at the covenant details. They need to raise 200% of any breach by raising equity or subordinate capital. That $10m accounts receivable financing hits all the markers so don’t see any issues whatsoever
The need to raise comes from the fact that they have breached the SWK covenants
Yes, these are just Accufer revenues. The $17.5 m in the update included the one off payment from Viatris and the Texas revenues. Going forward there will be no Viatris payment. Excluding Viatris they made $13m so would still have been $1.5m short if the Viatris payment hadnt got them over the line. So granted, on this occasion they're ok for the Q4'23 period but are in breach for the trailing 4 quarters to Q1'24 by about $1.7m and need to raise about $3.4m for that. The Q2 revenue target is 16.5m so they would need a c.25% increase over the Q1 and they are going to have to achieve that without Texas as it still was not back online by Tuesday. So with almost half the quarter gone without TX its looking unlikely (given they only hit a 1% QoQ increase in Q1'24 over Q4 without TX) they will hit the target for Q2'24 either.
Whats more concerning
I am not talking about the sales figures @KC . Talking about this raise stuff . I spoke to the company representative about 30 mins ago . They said they have no idea where this information is coming from . Hence the question about the source
The update CLEARLY says 2023 revenues of $17.5m which far exceeds the $14.5m required LMAO
Update:
I found the actual updated sales figures, they're in the RNS of the 21/2/24:
Q Sales Avg selling price Total $ Sales Trailing Target Gap
Q1 10.1 119 1,201,900
Q2 14.9 119 1,773,100
Q3 23.3 145 3,378,500
Q4 28.6 145 4,147,000 14,500,000 -3,999,500
Q1 28.8 140 4,032,000 15,000,000 -1,669,400
As STX have to raise 200% of the gap it needs $8M for the Q4'23 period and $3.4M for the Q1'24 period - that is a total of $11.4M to address the SWK breach. 40 days are up for the Q4'23 period and we've not heard anything so they are late on that and have about 10 days to address the Q1'24 period. The next week or do should be interesting to see what happens. Extremely poor form the management did not even discuss this major issue in the investor call on Tuesday
Riz29 are you serious?
if you are asking that question then it is clear you have been here less than 2 days.. go look at the latest RNS 30/4
@JAllis,
Can you tell me the source of where you got this information?
JAllis has nailed it - those newbies have no idea about the covenants smh - they are absolutely in breach and will either need to reneg, swap out, or raise new funds to make up the shortfall.
You have been warned - massive elephant in the room. 40 days and clock has already started ticking. This should have been mentioned in the results but they could still be talking/arranging /settling this in the backround which is why they said financial results would come 10th May
Your last five posts have been aimed at me, gosh anyone would think you fancy me.
Try adult networks may have more joy Mich
Gordon strikes again ☠️
Is the US quote for SHIEF suspended? For what reason? After shooting up it has flatlined. The UK quote in £pence is still well short of the USD equivalent, suggesting that the US quote is suspect..... Can anyone explain?
Great start buying strong
I feel for those whom have lost money including myself but if you are still upset and didn't buy or hold into the current rally then perhaps you need to move on.
I hear all what others are saying but there is still money to be made here perhaps 50% in 2 days, that doesn't happen often, the SP is clearly oversold.
2-2.2 ion Bloomberg all quotes sxreenatm
Looks like 2p will be taken out soon . 4vs 1 on level 2
In all seriousness good luck. As someone confident of what's going on here I hate seeing Greg lie through his teeth like this once again but it is what it is, better and more meaningful activist fights to be had elsewhere.
Just be wary that's all that Greg has said the same things before and now the numbers simply don't add up - I watched the IMC hoping for an explanation but all they did was focus on Texas' lower than expected numbers but even with that coming back in line the totals for 2024 will not be enough and more funding will be needed.
Ha I don't short but i'm kicking myself for not buying the hopium at 1.3p like I said I very nearly did- I'd be selling now for a reasonably healthy profit!
Tues at this value and the disconnect there’s clear value to be returned being oversold and undervalued. Harchris still time to close your short …
GordonB - you have clearly bought in in the last couple of days and are hoping for a quick profit. Good luck, there is nothing wrong with that.
However, over the years STX has had placings at 150p, 30p, 6p and recently at 8p. Many experienced investors have been burned by this company and CEO broken 'promises'.
I think many LTHs would be quite happy to have an average of 5p.
(i) it's a repeatedly used tactic
(ii) the numbers simply don't add up
Greg and Santosh Shanbhag have done all they can with the loan and change in covenants to keep Shield ticking over but there is absolutely no way this is getting them through to break even and the only way they can raise enough is by convincing you otherwise and raising off the back of that misunderstanding.
Exactly they have told us all it will provide a runway to breakeven/profit so why would you believe Harchris otherwise? You wouldn’t… the risk has removed and shorts are now closing.
Because they will soon run out of the cash from the loan facility, which I suspect much of has already been drawn down to give that updated cash figure...
Once the real details are understood in black and white there will no longer be a chance to raise so have to do it whilst they can still parrot this cash flow positive by 2025 BS.