We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
The crunch is already here! No more Russian gas...just UK gas!
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/europe-needs-end-energy-dependency-russia-says-uk-foreign-minister-2021-12-08/
qq25,
Yep, using SQZ 2022 average production guidance, 30350boepd taking into account Opex (est £10boe) / hedging / Capex (est £50m) and using 140p/therm $74 Brent average for 2022 add in ~£200m for 2021 YE and indeed I too arrive at ~£744m (ex Tax / dividends / return of capital) CoH for YE 2022.
"My conservative figures put us on £730m net cash at end of 2022 ... That should value us at £1b minium by year end..."
If we are to be sat on £730m CoH by YE 2022 it would be a crime, both in terms of failure of our board to deploy cash in an accretive way and by the market attributing a piddly £270m to the whole company inc ~60m 2P's which on historic metrics alone would be worth £900m.
aimo & dyor
My conservative figures put us on £730m net cash at end of 2022 excluding North Eigg capex. That should value us at £1b minium by year end. If you can sit on your bum for a year you get £4 a share almost a bagger
Sasa,
lol ......"embarrassment of riches".... love it.
I would have thought a half decent Ops update should see us top-out at ~249p before swiftly moving, as you suggested, into the 275p - 300p range. We then really need a driver to ensure we don't drop back to far on profit taking and give the market something else to consider, N Eigg alone will not cut the mustard.
atb
aimo & dyor
Getting a move on…
UK Natural Gas Futures
CONTRACT LAST TIME(GMT) % CHANGE VOLUME
JAN22 261.500 12/8/2021. 11:38 AM 7.181%
Agreed, NewK - although the update on improving R3's output is taking a while to be confirmed but, against that, we're only three weeks away now from the 66% BKR boost to our revenues which bodes very well for next years bumper results, whether or not any deal, incoming or otherwise, might be announced.
The eps achievement for this year is keenly awaited (by me, anyway) in March, vis a vis a significant divd boost which looks 'odd on' from here and I wouldn't rule out a share 'buy back' or even a 'return of capital' arrangement, either, if our burgeoning CoH becomes an 'embarrassment of riches' without sensible redeployment 'at the right price' being available...
In the absence of any mishap, the shs remain well undervalued with a usefully higher yield in prospect (either earnings driven or capital sourced) with a 275p - 300p re-rate a reasonable expectation as 2022 gets underway, imv - sasa.
At those rates, would mean ~£100,000,000 (pre Opex) net to SQZ come 1/1/22 ..... PER MONTH !!!
Current MCap ~£600m
aimo & dyor
Woww ... Jan NBP now over $200boe. Clearly Putin's NS2 and Ukraine worries combined with winter demand and low reserves will continue to keep NBP elevated for some months to come.
Hope our Ops update, which can drop any day soon, with SQZ net production during September and October, averaging over 26,000boe/d from our BKR and Erskine add in Columbus and improved R3, I would be disappointed if we are below 31kboepd .
aimo & dyor
https://www.reuters.com/article/europe-gas-kemp-idUKL1N2SS1PV
UK Natural Gas Futures
CONTRACT LAST TIME(GMT) % CHANGE VOLUME
JAN22 255.090 12/8/2021 9:43 AM 4.554 300
Siccar Point are in the same building as Serica. That would be handy for the eco-loons.
Yes indeed! I wonder how much Shell's 30% would be worth, especially now they have said they won't proceed?
A business with lots of cash and expertise in North sea production could snap it up for a modest fee? I wonder who.
Shell (as expected) pulling out of Cambo development.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/02/abandons-major-north-sea-oil-project/