Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Meant to make clear inmv . And only upomega view. No ones else's.
Maybe they are whites in shining armour alternatively they could be just scum buckets inmv and no representations for any other holders.
I make that about 30m shares that GRG have sold yet the SP has risen to all time highs. Strange, very strange indeed. Lots of theories but someone, and probably an II, has hoovered these up. Interesting to see everyone else’s take on this.
Inmv they togethe with the bod of serica are concocting something. Hopefully they are about to bid for someone/something and not the other way around. Some posters feel that if kristo bidded for serica it would be a bonus. For me unless it was a all cash deal i wouldnt be happy to have equity as part of any deal they came ip with. Afyervall we have the cash. We should be bidding for them not the other way around. Inmv and opinion
Could GRG have purchased the IOC portion?
Could they have to sell so there isn’t a conflict of interest ?????
Yep, don't get it!
I know the bots catch us around 16:20 ish , ...but with gas prices rocketing this is getting beyond a joke.
R3 news this week though!!!!!!
"Lets see if we get dragged back down to close flat after a promising early gains during today..."
Yep, dragged down into close, would of been nice to close flat though !! ... lol
And there's still the question of where GRG's shares have gone ?
sasa,
I can't see Eigg contributing anything significant to our SP until we get closer to production (assuming it's commercial), which will at best be 24-30 months off imo, it's taken SQZ almost 12 months to complete a re-entry of R3, an existing HTHP well and are still not there yet! In the meantime SQZ will have nothing to entice investors from 1/1/2022, acquisition or stagnation, which will it be? Our bottom draw will start to feel a little forsaken otherwise. As for Skerryvore, well that's not in our hands so you can probably discount that all together until Parkmead and Tom Cross decide otherwise.
aimo
Yes, I agree, NewK, that a BKR Mk II is probably as rare as 'hen's teeth' now with the gas price so high and looking to move up further still as winter approaches. But you never know...
Meanwhile, the profits outlook / divd forecast for next year, with Serica then firing on all cylinders, can only be good for supporting the sp around this level even without any acquisition news and if Eigg really pays off, they'll be spending their cash developing that I'd imagine - sasa.
Sasa,
One thing I need to add, although anyone who has done any research into SQZ will know, even at our current all time high, SQZ are presently undervalued particularly given our organic growth within the next 6 months both in terms of boe and receivable revenue. What is required to retain investor interest into 2022 and beyond is an acquisition of our own which offers significant upside aka BKR Mk II, but, tbh, I have long ago consigned that thought to my dusty bin .... 3,2,1
Lets see if we get dragged back down to close flat after a promising early gains during today, same as Friday or maybe we Want To Break Free !
aimo
Hi NewK - thanks for your comments / observations re:KIST and ourselves in the present climate - an interesting take on things - sasa.
Upomega,
Well it would give AA >200% return on his capital in little over 6 months making him multi millions .... any normal person would take that .. but we are talking about AA here who has already pocketed ~£60m from RRE sale. AA has a plan and will execute it and selling KIST at this point is not it. However, making another acquisition is .... he would then already have plans to flip the combined company probably making him ~£100m or more imo. Which is why I would not be against a cash / equity deal with KIST as I'm sure AA will add further value to my investment and in rapid time too.
Glad to see GRG selling down even more ... all part of the game afaic.
aimo & dyor
Maybe serica is about to make a play for kist instead of the reverse.
sasa,
Hope you are keeping well .....
KIST was an outsider but has recently moved up into contention in my view. We know AA is a wide-boy when it come to doing deals and particularly his knowledge and proficiency around financial markets. I could easily see a cash/equity deal tabled by AA. KIST have added ~30% in the last few weeks breaking new high's in their SP (interesting synergy in timings with SQZ SP movement btw) .... as you know 'cheapens' any deal that uses equity. AA will have no problem launching a book build imo and more to the point he has sufficient personal cash to retain his equity percentage share in KIST too, or tapping into RBL or short-term debt. The clever way RRE takeover was financially structured by Viaro was probably a lesson learnt by AA in terms of our CoH.
I say 'now or never' in terms of R3 .... anyone wanting a deal needs to know that R3 will flow at anticipated rates without issue as R3 will be a mega revenue stream in itself and the primary contributor to SQZ's production. Once news is out and R3 is deemed successful then I would consider it significantly more difficult to get any offer tabled, unless its closer to fair value which I estimate to be ~280p. I mentioned recently 'framing' any deal to shareholders being important , this too is getting harder as the days / weeks pass by. VWMA(100) now stands at 130p.
As for our swaps, don't think we need anymore, in fact I think we have way too many atm running from 2022. Hedging primary use is to cover costs and unless we intend to increase these substantially, ie through debt servicing etc in 2022 then no need for more hedges, the swaps in place atm are constricting us as it stands imo.
Now 11 days since Boka finished at Rhum, yet radio silence from SQZ .... so why no update ..... I have my thoughts so added a few more recently.
PS KIST at new all time high today and had a very strong close on Friday too .... just saying !
atb
aimo & dyor
These gas prices are unbelievable - if we are getting these prices in the summer, where will they go in the winter?
With respect to KIST, we are now too expensive for them, that boat has sailed, imho. However, there does appear to be something going on there, it’s rising daily and up nearly 33% in a few months.
Shame we can’t bring forward the Eigg drill. Don’t forget Skerryvore. I’m sure the board are looking at some mergers or farm ins to increase our prospective resources in the near future. There are a number of “minnows” that have some decent sized prospective resources just waiting to be drilled.
Hi NewK - with gas futures rising so significantly of late, I suspect Serica will / should be hedging rather more / undertaking further swaps, etc., to bolster this years outcome; the 66% revenue boost from BKR alone being only a few months away now should compensate if such protection proves rather premature, even now.
Ergo, the 2021 y/e outcome looks likely to be a very substantial improvement on last year's 'one off' disappointment as I tried to calculate a while back with a decent divd hike being very much on the cards if current circumstances persist.
Btw, it was suggested to me recently that KIST might well be interested in us, once AA has everything bedded down there - seems rather a 'bridge too far' for them to me but as you hold there, too, any thoughts on that? - sasa.
Wow..."Shiver me Timbers" those gas future price are amazing. Think we will be saying the same about our SP in the not too distant future. R3 and Columbus online and 100% BKR all imminent, when will the market react and factor all this in? Perhaps it will properly start when the Sept interims are reported. In the meantime an update on R3 would not go amiss.
Not just up .... flying .... Jan 2022 now >110p/therm .....just in time for 100% BKR receivables.
SQZ SP should be powering ahead, less than 5 months until 1/1/2022
Gas futures up again today. I hope we have no more delays with rhum3 as it would be a shame to miss out on this. Just a pity columbus isnt online as well inmv.
Maverick,
Going back to our chat about H1 results 2021 vs 2020, how could I have forgotten our 45 day outage for caisson and associated repair costs ..... so regardless of our extra unexpected cost over-run with R3 / Columbus plus 2 weeks outage for FPS, like you , I expect H1 2021 results will be far superior to 2020's.
I estimate Jan – June 2020 NBP averaged ~18p/therm, where as Jan – June 2021 NBP I'm estimating an average ~59p/therm, with Brent showing significant gains too.
aimo & dyor
NewKTOB
Yes i agree, that is the great unknown and thats why i believe we havent seen the share price go higher compared to the sky high gas prices. The market doesnt know how these high gas prices equate to revenue and EBIT in the financials. I agree that H2 should be way higher than H1 and 2022 should be another step change. i thought drilling of our last HPHT well was a p@ss take, but RHUM3 is on a different level. They better deliver or else - lol
btw Maverick, H2 will be astonishingly good..... as for YE 2022, well I would struggle to put a figure on our profits for being way too conservative in the first instance should these current futures prevail. Just need to get that troublesome R3 online.
aimo
Maverick,
We had more than expected in outgoings for H1 (R3/Columbus) coupled with restrictive hedging and FPS outage our results will probably be curtailed a little but still be pretty good imo.
once the next financial results are published we should see another step change in share price performance, seeing the impact of the current high gas prices in black and white will be a driver.....