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Interesting decision by opec+, why cut so much ?
- is demand falling
- are they losing market share to the ruskies in Asia so they need to reduce the amount they produce anyway
- cutting production could be seen as bearish by the market after an initial bullish rise
- if demand is truly rising you should be increasing production to keep oil in the $75-85 range
Well, well ..... lines drawn :
An additional 1 million cut from Saudi Arabia starting in July
Plus ;
All nine countries have announced the extension of their voluntary cuts until the end of 2024
Plus :
Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary cuts of 500k till the end of 2024
See resolution 13 is looking to up the amount of shares Serica can buyback, now we issued more to Mecuria et al .... resolution is to buyback up to 38,322,063 shares plus other small print pertaining to the buyback price.
Plus resolution 11, seeking auth to allot up to 12,646,281 x 2 shares as per :
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/46/section/551/data.pdf
Resolution 4 is to re-appoint Mitch Flegg .....
As mentioned, vote now !!!
aimo & dyor
“ Our world-leading energy plan announced today by Keir Starmer will turn this around. A clean power system by 2030 will lay the foundations of the drive to net zero, but it will also unleash waves of dynamism and industry across our country with a million well-paid jobs in the renewable and nuclear industries, built on strong trade unions.”
Great Britain Needs You. ( V Sign ) spelt as I cannot find a emoji
Wft inmv is now illegal. Labour and it's stooges the Concervative party are creating a situation where they could cause a crime against our state inmho dyor etc.
Would help if I posted the link ….
https://twitter.com/mr21318/status/1663952100751966214?s=46&t=uz3in5yMdDdYvqnOjeh9vg
I saw this posted by another holder, which would of been end of day on Wednesday of this week, now that’s a big UT trade …. I can’t confirm it as not able to look back, anything you’ve seen Newkotb as I know you keep an eye on these things..
2,050,636 if correct & if a buy that’s a nice dividend…
Totally agree with you Newkotb. This deal should have been pulled the moment wft landed. The worry for me is that the dividend will be cut going forward due to the current energy prices.
Part of me is still hopeful that either an overseas acquisition is near or maybe some kind of merger or takeover occurs.
Getting harder day by day to justify our BoD rejecting Kistos offer of ~£1bn less then 12 months ago, whilst our MCap is still well below AA's offer price ... that's including the newly merged Tailwind assets too which we paid how much for !!!.
Not sure what has happened to our rabbit being pulled from the hat, maybe its been roasted with garlic, rosemary tomatoes, olives, mustard seeds served with seasonal veg, sauté potatoes and freshly baked bruschetta with drizzel of olive oil.
aimo & dyor
An article in the FT on contrarian investing and guess which company they use as an example.
Decent exposure if nothing else.
https://www.ft.com/content/704a2f0b-157a-4474-b2df-33910be4f30b
Dennis, you’re right of course. At some point they’ll be a recognition that their proposals are absolute fantasy.
The problem is, and assuming Labour win the election, how much damage will they do to O&G firms before they come clean?! It really is frustrating that we have a shadow chancellor saying they’ll increase taxes further, even when prices are back to inflation adjusted norms.
As you alluded to in an early post, the problem is basically household bills. Consumers/businesses are still feeling the pinch, so it’s very much a vote winner to talk about further taxes and redistributions. If bills fall, then maybe there can be some sensible discussions about tweaking/removing the tax.
If this doesn't attract investors ( unfortunately traders too ) don't know what will ....
https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/exdividenddate.py?m=alldividends&fm=&sc=y&st=1
aimo & dyor
Clive Moffat makes some good points but on GB News he's preaching to the converted.
Politicians don't care about delivering any of their pie in the sky promises as long as they can hoodwink enough of the electorate to win the next election.
In 2025, PM Starmer will admit net zero by 2035 isn't achievable. Maybe with a new sense of realism, he will propose an approach to achieve NZ by 2050. This is what the Tories should be doing now.
Nice little move up this morning. Just people getting in for the dividend?
One for the house broker to address if they can be bothered in earning their crust,but inmv they are clueless . Just like the current government and its master oik and its cronies.onmho, dyor etc etc
Upomega,
Why is it too late to hedge for next year? The forward curve is above £1 per therm for all of next year. When the energy price cap gets lowered next month, energy supplies will start bringing out switching deals again, which will give producers plenty of opportunity to hedge (if they choose to).
The problem is still the EPL though, at £1 per therm and $75 oil I have FCF at about $300m. With normal gas prices (70p a therm) and no EPL the company would have produced nearer $400m of FCF. So basically the so called windfall tax isn't just a windfall tax anymore.
Newkotb
I am with you all the way on this . LTH have been robbed inmho. This dividend is mearly to placate matters. The big question is would they have behaved as they have done had we been listed in the states. I doubt it inmv.
Upomega,
"Bod felt hedging was not practical when prices were high", well I think you could probably rephrase that to say 'Mercuria felt hedging was not practical when prices were high', or in other words, wasn't in Mercuria's interest to offer us a good deal or our BOD grow some and go find another counter-party that will !
Example of Ithaca's hedges : "At 31 March 2023, 10.7 million barrels of oil equivalent (68% oil) hedged from Q2 2023 into 2025 at an average price floor of $70/bbl for oil and 189p/therm for gas.."
On the plus-side remaining pre TW deal, our pre-existing hedges fall-away soon. Remaining atm are :
Q2 23 42.2p 100,000 therms per day : Q3 23 40.7p 50,000 therms per day : Q4 23 NIL
However, we have now replaced, with the TW deal, more overhang :
2023 (from 23 Mar): 11,000bbl/d at US$58/bbl : 2024: 4,000bbl/d at US$74/bbl
Of course one reason for not taking out more hedging could be the need to gain RBL with hedging for any future deal, as such BoD didn't want to lock anymore in. The official line in this years annual report stated, "Due to Serica’s increasing financial strength, the company has not entered into any new gas hedging since July 2021.." even though we have substantially less cash now and not to mention debt from the TW deal.
aimo & dyor
Inmv they will only look at at this if Oik and its party start to intimate that this tax is unfair. I,E jobs being lost ???
Megla in my view if they have not already added to existing hedges then it is way too late. Unfortunatly they are just not very good at hedges going on their past performence, but you never know there could be a rabbit in the hat . So to speak.
I'm hoping (probably naively) that the government will see sense to reduce/remove the WFT once it is politically acceptable to do this, i.e. once domestic energy bills start dropping. It's insane that bills are still so high when wholesale gas price has dropped through the floor.
Upomega, I can give you a FCF estimate for next year if you give me an O&G price to use? The forward curve for Gas is above £1 per therm for next year, so theoretically Serica could hedge at those levels.
I DO NOT want this to happen. But there’s always the potential that Gas does a moon shot in winter again. A couple of weeks of snowy, still, below zero weather and Europe is stuffed.
Personally, I would prefer normal pricing but with the EPL removed, not sure we’re going to get that though.
I am afraid this will be a one off dividend. What profit do you feel Serica will make going going forward. Both oil and gas prices are now at lows last seen when the so called pandemic hit. Too boot we have this tax levy.Also they Bod felt hedging was not practical when prices were high. They did the opposite
Very sorry state of affairs in my view. Fwiw i still hold two thirds of my original holding so not trying to short. Just being realistic in the hope c...t hmg and its bosses tw...t starm..r actuallly see what they doing.