Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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SharketMare it is you who is blinkered. No evidence to say NCM will sell their holding. But plenty of evidence to say that they are keeping their holding and wish to increase it.
It is you that's blinkered.
Orthern, I think they've had an impossible task because of disagreements amongst major shareholders about the best way forward. We're clearly at an impasse and given the fact that BHP/NCM are no longer willing to stump up cash, something has got to give, likely before this year's AGM.
In order for this company to make meaningful progress, with a clearly defined strategy that all shareholders can get behind, either Mather or BHP need to go. They are never going to agree.
There must be at least one other outside interested party, the most obvious being...Jiangxi...
"Valuestone Global Resources Fund I has been established by Jiangxi Copper Corporation (China’s largest copper producer)"
Valuestone's sole investment advisor is Dickson Hall, Toronto based. He is obviously very well engaged on Ecuador because for example he recently 'liked' a photograph of Adventus' CEO Christian Kargl-Simard meeting President Lasso...
Here is more on Adventus...
https://adventusmining.com/news/122593
So...given Dickson's Toronto base (the mining epicentre of the globe) and his intimate relationship with Valuestone (aka Jingxi) who he will have advised to buy a stake in Solgold, it is a racing certainty that Jiangxi are in the picture somewhere and indeed to my mind would be a likely bidder for SOLG...
The question is, would they make the first bid or would they wait back with a counter...there is no doubt whatsoever that China's largest copper producer would be very interested in Solgold...
Valuestone is c0-owned by China Construction Bank Corporation:
"CCB International is a financial and investment services company owned by China Construction Bank Corporation. The core business of its subsidiaries comprises three main areas: pre-IPO, IPO and post-IPO. These are the main elements of a comprehensive financial and investment services value chain that offers a full range of products and services including sponsoring and underwriting, financial advisory, corporate mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, additional issuance and placement of shares, refinancing for listed companies, direct investment, asset management, securities brokerage, market research, investment consultancy, futures and commodities business."
And that’s down to our board and it’s progress/actions
“ Would you agree, on the balance of probability, NCM are less interested in SOLG now that a year or two ago?”
Judging by current share price and sentiment…. Everyone is!
Quady, you are so blinkered in your viewpoints. Of course there is nothing publicly available that suggests NCM are considering selling their holding, else our share price would be even further in the doldrums. Half of this game is piecing together what is NOT being said by companies. This year, NCM have withdrawn from a project in Chile and in Ecuador. They have also suggested publicly that their focus will be on domestic assets. Their financial position is far weaker than it was 18 months ago, when they last publicly expressed support for SOLG.
Given the above, I think it's more likely that they are eventual sellers here than buyers. I also don't see them sitting quietly with 13.6% of the company and watching your fantasy of SOLG taking this to production playing out, because that simply isn't what they do. Are there any examples of Newcrest holding less than 20% of a producing asset anywhere in the world?
Good grief they are not seller's, stop making it up. Show me some evidence that NCM are considering selling part of, or all their holding in Solgold.
You are just making this up and rewriting history to support the ludicrous idea of a bid in the next two years.
It's all based on lies being told on this forum.
Show me anything that suggests NCM are to thinking of disposing of part or all their Solgold holding.
It’s like a property auction “who’ll start the bidding?”
If often takes an age for the first person to raise their hand ….
Add if they are sellers is BHP the most likely buyer ?
Though they have sided together on many occasions here I’m sure they’ll still want a decent price for their investment.
This needs a shake up and a new player …. What is the most likely way in …. Via DGR or CGP …. ??Assuming there are indeed other interested parties of course
RK, that was last year. I'm not saying they are definitely sellers, just that their latest announcements must cast some doubt as to their position.
Fair enough, it was only 18 months ago they publicly backed the strategy, I thought it was longer. I would suggest that a fair bit has happened in the last 18 months for NCM, and public statements made by Sandeep Biswas and company imply that South America and therefore SOLG are not going to be top of their priority list.
https://www.mining-journal.com/gold-and-silver-news/news/1393110/newcrest’s-biswas-bats-off-solgold-sale-rumours
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/newcrest-rules-out-solgold-sale-20201111-p56dli
https://www.miningnews.net/feasibility/news/1404549/newcrest-backing-solgold-strategy
SharketMare stop it. It wasn't years ago, it was within the last year.
Quady, as Jerry points out Newcrest said that years ago. If you bothered to listen to what the company (Newcrest) is saying this year, you'd know that SOLG isn't a priority for them. I'd have thought the the market-beating investor of the last 40 years you claim to be would see this clearly.
DBW apart from our differences on Slug, you used to be a good poster.
Today you have stopped listening to what Solgold says and you listen to everyone else. What CGP and DGR do is their concern. You may argue that it is relevant to us. But it's really not unless they sell their holdings to one party or BHP or NCM, as the book then remains just as diverse.
Listen to what the company we are invested in says.
Newcrest, like everyone else, is a seller at the right price…. But let’s not assume BHP would be unopposed…. Brooke McDonald has openly admitted he expects CGP to be sold this year and Nick has done the same with Solg …. Don’t worry about the share price just wait for the news
SharketMare your comment is a non comment. Why does that matter. NCM have said they would like too add more to their current stake. What has the stake they hold today got to do with anything. NCM are not selling. But everybody who watches the Solgold story knows that.
Quady, did the NC CEO say one word last night about Solgold? When was the last time he said they were content to hold onto their stake in Solgold? After how many months/years does what a CEO say become irrelevant?
Quady, can you point me to a producing asset that Newcrest own less than 20% of? They are not going to stand aside and be bit-part players in the building of Alpala. They will either sell their stake and continue their pullback from South America (likely), attempt to takeover the company in tandem with BHP (possible, but unlikely for my money given their current financial position and priorities), or they will attempt to buy us out themselves (very unlikely).
Q, their CEO has said (in relation to them not exercising their GGP option) that they have many potential targets for their capital allocation and they did not consider buying the 5% to be the best of them.
The question is, given their current level of gearing, how could they afford the $1.5bn for their share of the development of Cascabel? Strategically they would be the very junior partner in a relationship with BHP, and I'm not sure that's where they'd want to be. My bet is still on them being sellers - but who knows? As for what the CEO has said, life has simply moved on and his previous comments are irrelevant.
Correct Addicknt. Newcrest have to fix their own boat, which is proving quite leaky right now.
Shipright that is not what NCM have said. They want a share in Alpala and other tenements. They are thinking long term. Sure they will sell for above full value, but nobody is going to offer that.
That is the diverse book in action.
This is why we in all probability go to production, that is the way to obtain value for Solgold.
If NCM don't want to buy us they will need to sell.
I doubt they will want a bargain basement price.
All IMHO.
Agreed Addicknt, but to be fair, NCM have always taken the position, that they are not sellers either, and their plan is to add if possible to their current holding.
One thing the NCM results have shown us is that they are not in a great place. Both copper and gold production were down - 15% in the case of copper, and they've had a significant increase in gearing.
At a time when they should be reporting fantastic results, they've done the opposite. This leads me to conclude they are not buyers here - despite their need for copper, and that they themselves are in a vulnerable situation. I imagine Barrick may have their slide rule out.