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Adic. You've lost me on that one mate. Not sure you've got the right person. Anyway you told us all you had filtered me.??????
Nal, so, Caldwell was lying, was he?
Sean. Firstly, you show your naivety by hanging on to forts every post. The man's a bigger clown than you.
Secondly, the funniest thing I've ever read on here
Is you saying you've stopped posting anything serious. Hahahaha. YOU NEVER HAVE. HAHA.
I think a logical guess on the recent Ecuador (historic first ever) chinese FTA would say that deal was closed earlier than many expected. It was cited for latter half of 2023 but seemed to gather pace as Lasso / political pressure increased. So fair to assume that Chinese may well prefer to get something signed or pre-agreed prior to Lasso's departure.
As proven by the recent 20% increase Chinese stake in SOLG, they know value and they know the long game. It suits them. They don't have shareholders to please or lap up to like Newmont, Barrick, BHP et al. They are already embedded into many financial commitments with Ecuador so much so that Biden and his US buddies are clearly rattled by Chinese influence across South Americas.
So two ways of looking at at... 1. as sharketmare says... nothing going to happen until end of the year.... or 2. interested parties see a window and that potentially closes come early Q4. So now through to early October is possible for a first move.
Chinese know that BHP might be ready to counter any offer so perhaps they are trying to find a way that prevents that or gives them a decent return should they fail. Buying up SOLG equity (like recently) certainly covers both basis as if BHP counter with 60p+ price, then the Chinese will be making 3 fold on their 6%+ acquired stake.
Looking at II holdings, most of the Blackrock/FIL selling has been done so that doesn't leave much stock left to buy apart from bored flaky pi's exiting of course. Hard to see the chinese move trough 7% level without some II's providing stock. Global X have around 42m but have been stake building rather than exiting. Fidelity appear to have about 16m left so chance they could snaffle those if they haven't already. Morningstar data should be out next week so guess we'll find next week. Apart from those players, I can't see any other flaky II's selling or gifting Chinese some SOLG stock. Also, we don't appear to have had much selling from past CGP holders (smaller ones). I think someone posted a while ago that they thought that might see some sellers. Most seem like they are holding tight like most SOLG holders.
Highflyman. Ref your post.
"Anyway, the direction of travel is locked in and we've got interest and it's only a matter of time before this plays out."
Other than, solg saying it. Wich we've now heard several times . To no avail. I might add.
I wonder if you could post the link showing we've got interest. I must have missed it.
Tesla1 - another troll I spanked on here. Why return for more punishment? What exactly is this new Three Stooges act with Tesla1, AgArCu and needalife (with Quady providing a dimwitted understudy role?) Do the four of you really have nothing better to do with your lives? There have always been funny characters buzzing around this board down the years, but none so pointless and so obviously here just to act as pests. The fact that needalife goes into a meltdown every time one of our well researched and well connected regulars mentions contacting a member of SOLG just shows how far removed from actual investing he is.
As was pointed out by Fort, this SP only needs to get above 20p these days when sentiment totally turns round and all the troll vanish. Same things happens on the other channel.
I don't post anything serious anymore because I've said all I've had to say down the years. I see a bid coming, but at a more realistic £1Billion which means 30-33p a share. I'm happily trading until then and have done far better under 20p than I ever did in the 30s, so i am not in a rush for a sale and I'm not in a rush to get back to the 25p level. 15% fluctuations on a regular basis are a gifthorse I won't look in the mouth. And I will continue to hold a certain amount until the bitter end, though I know it will not be the pot of gold it once promised to be back in 2016.
I know we are not going into production, I know there will be no strategic review, and I know nothing will hurry up a sale - it will come when it comes. So it's kind of pointless coming on to say anything other than to poke the obvious trolls for a laugh.
But I do appreciate the continued excellent input from DG1, ship, fort, DBW, theitalian, FTJNY, padmaster, sharketmare and all the other genuine investors - despite our disagreements down the years some of the best posters I have seen on any of these boards.
Sorry to be a pedant but aren't mermaids always naked?
Hey DG1, agree with your points however I was comforted to hear the current cash situation is good for a long while and especially pleased to hear from the company it's self that there are multiple NDA's signed and a busy data room. Like you I believe CA by year end is very achievable, however wonder if one of the Chinese suiters would take advantage of the traditionally weak time of year and make an offer early in the know that they have additional leverage on the Ecuadorian authorities that other potential bidders don't have - but that might be wishful thinking!
Anyway, the direction of travel is locked in and we've got interest and it's only a matter of time before this plays out. Holding strong if not impatiently!
I was trying to do two things at once yesterday whilst listening to the call, so does anyone have a link to the recording yet so I can listen again?
Have a great weekend all. C
I was expecting a little more from the investor chat yesterday. I also suspect Scott was expecting to be able to say a little more . Only my opinion but I think there’s a decent amount of news to come in the near term ….. DG decent post earlier hope you’re doing ok
Italian I wouldn’t want your bar bill if the slug turns up
I will join that party, been looking forward to it for 6 years! If you source the mermaids I will pay for the beers!
Fort - could you let me have the address and time for the free beer party with the naked mermaids please?
Good morning chaps,
I wasnt able to listen in yesterday as I was at my nephews wedding on Weds deepest Essex and traveling home yesterday- Leez Priory - lovely venue
From what I have read so far nothing earth shattering on the presentation (I will listen back when i get a chance) however I sort of expected that.
Only my view but I think it feels and seems like very little happeneing as the goal now is to get the company sold - in what guise that takes I have no idea and as for timescale also no idea - I'd like to think that by the end of the year we will have the corporate transaction many are waiting for - but that would be a pure guess on my part.
I'm with Bozi - you can remain invested and indeed buy more if you feel the sale is coming although at the same time feel dissapointed that maybe the journey (and its been yrs and yrs for many of us) maybe wont yield the return a good few of us would have liked - so a twinge of dissapointment would be natural
That said I'm in the camp of 40-50p as a final outcome and higher if we do indeed ever reach a competitive scenario - could happen but who knows.
Anyway its been good to read up on comments over the last few days.
Just one last thing from me on a couple of points - it was Scotts idea to reach out and get closer with PI's and I think it was already in the plan to do so prior to my call- I merely agreed and said that I thought it would be a good idea - ie it certainly wasnt any pressure that I put on - I'm a mere investor ! However just maybe if you read between the lines its a positive that they did this with no new news per say as typically companies provide a session like this as they have something to announce - they didnt and offered themselves up to be shot down which I think is a positive. My own opinion is they are positioned for a sale and as such are watching the pennies and not driving forward with much else other than things that can help and make this happen.
All the best and good luck - hopefully we are on the home straight and hopefully before my mortgage rate jumps in 2024 !
Addicknt,
You know as well as I do that the sp only has to be moving above 20's again and suddenly the BB is an ocean paradise with naked mermaids and free beer party's. The sentiment on the BB's swings with where the sp is. So of course at 17p it's hardly swim shorts time is it? As for the 'shareholder frustrations', .... do you mean 'shareholder impatience'?? I think you've mixed up the latter with the BHP NCM AGM voting which had nothing to do with a cohesive shareholder frustrations... and everything to do with underhand intentions eg they wanted the prize for themselves but didn't want to pay you and I the fair price.
Sharketmare... I think you need to remember that the Chinese have a very good relationship with the landlord which is contrary to your thinking. They've just signed an FTA ! I think you'll find Lasso et all are gagging for someone to take on Alpala and I can't see any issues like a pony $150m or so preventing them from taking on a $5bln project. Furthermore, someone like the Chinese or BHP et al will renegotiate the terms again when they redraft the DFS to suit their own pockets/budgets which are much much bigger.
If you think nothing will happen between now and end of the year, then you go with that... personally I think you'll be back in here pretty quick but unfortunately at a much higher price. Just a hunch. ATB and respect your views/investment decisions. It takes a brave man to be 'out' and equally a brave man to be 'in' I guess.
Personally I think all current board actions are designed to minimise spend and maximise where possible ( eg:- Tailings etc) any sale value. Let's say for arguments sake we accept that Solg are focused on trying to sell the total business then everything they are saying and doing in terms of cost reduction and value enhancement of Cascabel clearly points to a sale!! All the clues are there and they aren't very difficult to read IMHO
I would add - first round elections on August 20th might mean the people on the other side of the negotiating table are different come year end. The second round/run off is not until October 15th.
SOLG would do very well to get those agreements signed before then, if government is still operating in between rounds 1 and 2.
Dbw. How do you think someone who bought at the top, feels about your holier than thou attitude.
The only correct thing you've ever posted on here, is when you just said the boards gone down hill.
It's the likes of you and your daily tripe that's responsible
Why not DBW?
It will likely be that a sombre end for SolGold will provide more of a return than many other stocks will at a time of downward pressure and at best market malaise.
It's never as simple as saying "if you don't believe then sell" or "if you didn't believe you wouldn't hold". It is possible for shareholders to be disappointed with where they expect the final result of this to be but still view it as a better proposition than their alternatives.
I still fully believe there will be a takeover here, just not until much later in the year, perhaps early next year. Fort posted some rambling analogies about houses and hotels yesterday to describe the situation, here is another:
SOLG owns a house. Jiangxi is the buyer. Upon doing due diligence, it becomes apparent that SOLG owes the person who owns the land the house is built on (the Ecuadorian government) approx $145m before the end of the year. SOLG is attempting to renegotiate this agreement (the IPA). SOLG is also negotiating an agreement to build a massive underground extension (exploitation agreement) . These are things crucial to the success of your purchase - no underground extension, the house is worthless to you.
If you are Jiangxi and decide to purchase today, you will have to take over these negotiations, and you do not have any relationship whatsoever with the landlord at the moment.
The smart, risk-averse play here is to sit and wait for SOLG to resolve the issues with the landlord and then make an offer. The downside to this is another buyer coming along and deciding to make an offer, at which point your hand will be forced into a counter offer if this is an asset you are dead set on buying. But you realise that it's unlikely that one of your peers is going to risk £$1.5bn on a block cave mine in Ecuador without those agreements in place.
There is very, very little impetus for anyone to bid now. Nothing will happen here until SOLG has done those two deals with the government and the project has been massively de-risked. This is why in yesterday's slide deck (slide 5) it was listed as the first priority for the business. We've been given a timeline of year-end for these agreements, pretty much the only deadline that SOLG is currently willing to commit to.
Timing wise, I hope to buy back in 1) before the agreements are signed or 2) after the agreements are signed and before an offer is made. With no drilling taking place (and I imagine there won't be any at all this year), it's hard to see what will catalyse the share price in between now and October.
Fort, so, according to you shareholders vote against a director but that isn't a sign of frustration and disgruntlement? Hmm.
As for more general frustration amongst ordinary shareholders, you and I must read a different bb. The tone on here has changed considerably.
I share your view about the ultimate direction of travel, but I most definitely am not seeing it through rose tinted glasses.
Addicknt, I thought Scott's comment regarding some shareholders don't like him related to the AGM voting which we by implication involved Blackrock, NCM and BHP throwing usual toys out of pram and voting against some directors of which Scott was one.
That's not 'shareholder frustration' as you've implied but 'shareholders attempting to undermine the board' as per Mr Twiggers view prior to last AGM which saw a number of the mentioned trying to destabilise SOLG to suit their own interests.
As I said, as far as I'm aware there are no frustrations or negativity surrounding SOLG despite an irrelevant bunch (some ex holders) of Pi's that seem intent on whinging their way through to some kind of self created reality!
The SR process/sale process is taking sometime (these things happen when market backdrop not great - see Condor gold as another example for timeframes on their SR/sale process).
If you are invested in SOLG for the buyout/monetisation event, then you are closer than ever before of realising that outcome as just about everything I can think of is aligned with the target to get this sold and handed over to someone that can develop it and develop it fast to benefit from Copper's surging price and demand over 2 to 10 years+
Bozi
“The reality here is that SolGold is meandering to a sombre end.”
Let’s agree to disagree….. anyone who truly believed that wouldn’t remain invested
RK they have not acquired the Valuestone stake. But even if they would have Valuestone only owns 11.9m shares.
I'm not so sure it's that sad DBW.
At the end of the day the company isn't drilling, so there are no intercepts or results to discuss.
The takeover discussions have been done to absolute death and back. Some people are obviously of a kind to continue them, and they don't like the likes of AgArCu countering them.
The reality here is that SolGold is meandering to a sombre end. Most LTHs should get some sort of return but it won't be anything like we were originally hoping for.
And on we go.
Morning Red / Add
I guess it’s simply a case of wait and see. My opinion hasn’t changed …… Takeover (probably the Chinese in the end ) so no need to waste money …… days , weeks , months or longer who knows …… this board sadly pretty redundant now …. Enjoy your weekend