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"Wonder where the bottom is for Solgold, just came up on my radar at 52 week lows, now below 7p"
"Wow one of my first ever small cap picks"
"Not looked at it for some time, was a bit surprised to see it here myself!"
"Bouncing, I suspect from ATL. If it can gain momentum @baroninvestment
is correct, might be a decent recovery play"
What are you talking about? 55% of all volume is off book. Over 1.6m of todays 3.1m volume is not AT
Maybe he’s sniffing around here
The first UT of the day was at 7.46...up 8%...
Since then the SP has fallen 10%...driven by Autotrades...
There has been very little buying or selling by PIs or other investors...
Of the first 148 trades, only 19 of them were non AT trades...
And five of those were by what looks like one plucky investor buying 500k at an average of 3.76 (currently 3.86...)
And into the 6's it goes!
RK1,
Well said. A very good assessment of where we are. I’m in from 2012 what’s another 6-12 mths?
I just invested because red Knight said so looks like we was both wrong
Apart from the fact that rapidly falling or rising shares are fuelled by PIs not wanting to miss out, there is one fundamental underlying factor that is relevant to SOLG...
Liquidity...or lack of it...
People on here and elsewhere keep talking about "the market this and the market that..."
"The market" is neithe heavily selling nor heavily buying shares...
The average daily volume on Solgold is c0.1%...yes NOUGHT POINT ONE per cent of the total shares in issue...
That tells me that nobody is selling and nobody is buying and as I have said earlier, the vast majority of daily trades are AT trades...NOT private investors...NOT institutions..
Indeed I estimate that over the last few months, leaving out the exceptional move in late December, NOUGHT POINT NOUGHT TWO (0.02)% of total shares in issue are traded on an averag daily basis.
So why is nobody buying...? Either because they are fully invested or for fear of losing even more money. They want to see news or a rising share price before stepping back in. If it falls further they may simply chuck the towel in.
But they're not>
Why?
Because they know or at least believe that Cascabel alone is worth way more than the current share price and they are either waiting for 'the market' to recognise that or for the inevitable bidding war for one of the best unmined Tier 1 prospects on the planet.
And why aren't they buying?
Because they are fully invested and they fear the SP will fall further if they buy more and it hurts too much already.
I would venture a bet that virtually nobody is running a profit at the moment on a holding of any meaningful size.
But here's the thing...liquidity in share markets is a double sided coin.
I know from my own experience as an AIM GFD with shareholder responsibility that when there is litlle or no liquidity couple with little or no news, the SP drifts steadily lower and lower...
And even 'insiders' at SOLG acknowledge that AT trades are manipulating the market, steadily dragging it lower...
Why?
At face value it looks stupid...the daily value of their hundreds of trades is immaterial and they must be steadily losing money so it can only be to keep the SP low, which clearly wouldn't be difficult for one or more prospective bidders...
But 20/27 December shows the other side of the coin.
Because of poor liquidity, when good news arrives, the SP will be marked up and PIs (and maybe institutions) will climb back in, driving the price up in a market where the only sellers will be tired investors or short term traders.
So trust me...this hurts right now...but we all still believe we are on the verge of a life changing event...
GLA
Between mid September and late October the SP almost halved, from 14+ to sub 8...
No-one who has been here for any length of time could be unaware of Berry Street Capital's animosity towards SOLG's Board of Directors, culminating in an Open Letter to shareholders.
OK so some of what they said was fair enough but this was a fund with only c1% of the shares which eventually went bust due to apparent incompetence. It was a fund set up primarily for very wealthy investors but eventually it had to be liquidated.
The key thing is, howver, that in any normal cisrcumstances the fund managers or a reciver would contact Solgold and, working with one or two MMs, work the sale carefully through the market to minimise damage to the SP.
Instead BSC dumoed their SOLG shares directly into the market, creating a protracted overhang in what looks suspiciously like a fit of pique.
IMO the SP would have been much lower if Scott hadn't stepped in to buy shares and stabilise the price.
But one thing that these two 'events' have in common is that private investors almost certainly panicked and sold as the share price was dropping, thereby exacerbating the fall. That might have been a smart move for some if they are back in at a much lower cost, but I'm sure MMs will have gleefully hit one Stop Loss after another on the way down...
The final 'event' is the share price rise from 20 to 27 December.
I've already written about that yesterday and I believe it was triggered by the very positive AGM results after investors had feared the worst.
So what conclusions can we draw.
PIs often invest in shares based on hype, a tip, seeing a share price rise rapidly, rumour of such as takeovers, mates recommendations or whatever.
But when those things don't materialise they have to ask themselves two questions:
Do I sell or hold
And if I hold, what do I actually KNOW about this company.
And the fact is that we only really know what is in the public domain. The rest is speculation and rumour.
But what a PI should ALWAYS do BEFORE they buy a share is to research in detail and be absolutely clear why they are buying a share and what their expectations are. If those expectations are unrealised and or do not materialise they have one of three decisions to make:
Do I sell
Do I hold
Do I buy more
Instead many shareholders are driven by one or both of FOMO or FOLO.
And then when things go wrong they are afflicted by the 'British disease'...look for anyone to blame except themselves.
And of course the Company has let them down...
But why have I linked these events?
Ortherncopper, can you point me to who exactly has 'walked away'?? Or are you just making that up?
Tranche #1 is in - GLA.
It is clear that worth to buy now and wait few days to sell with good profit. Lows of the lows now and I can't see any reason for that.
Scott can accuse other SOLG management teams of being incompetent as much as he likes but they all achieved something he has yet to; they created value.
What is under the bonnet is of course important for the long term success of the company but sometimes you've got to give the old girl a clean so she looks her Sunday best, particularly if you're taking her for a spin (raising more capital).
At the moment we're thick with winter muck and there's no sign of any shampoo.
In the first, the share price fell from 36 to 13.76. This was the major reason why the SP has been so deflated for the last several months.
So what happened?
After Darryl became CEO he stopped almost everything to focus on Cascabel. Porvenir was to be the 'next cab off the rank'
This is the opening statement of his Linked In profile:
"Darryl Cuzzubbo is a Chief Executive Officer and Director with over 30 years of experience in roles across a variety of commodities and geographies in both the resources and manufacturing sectors."
What do you notice is missing...? Mining exploration and development...
I am in no doubt that Darryl was appointed to Project Direct the construction of the Alpala mine. PFS2 was completed in April 2022 and the focus then was DFS. But it was Ingo's role to raise the funds, so why did he leave? Because he knew that Alpala could not be funded without massive equity dilution.
But before that, SOLG needed funds. Ingo and Ayten worked on a 'plain vanilla' equity issue but Darryl and Nick wanted to cut out BHP and NCM and they were persuaded by Barclays that they could do a 'cashbox' issue.
This very publicly failed; Ingo and Ayten resigned and the share price started to plummet...it took 6 months to recover after Scott came in.
But meanwhile Darryl had made another massive gaffe.
Sangha had a royalty funding lined up with Osisko but Cuzzubbo once again thought he could do better. Privately he went to FNV to see if he could get a better deal.
This was an act of self sabotage. He was fired and Scott took over and the SP started to recover until it became clear that the merger would take much longer to complete.
Nevertheless it recovered eventually to 22p.
As it became clear that there was much more work to do and a takeover might take longer than we wished, but especially as the copper price drifted from $4.30 to $3.60 and gold from $2085 to $1810, the SOLG SP drifted down again to stabilise around 14/15p, where it would have stayed or even advanced as metals prices stabilised, until the next major 'event' happened...
Been in the data room... analysed it all and walked away. How long has this Data room been open to potential buyers?
Orpherncopper, who's walked away?? Last time I looked BHP were still holders and hadn't sold a share. NMM via NCM still holders. And of course we have new holders in the Chinese state circa 6%+.
So not sure what your are on about with last bit of your post?
We have more key investors involved now than we did 2 years ago. They are not walking away... they are building stakes and that applies to royalty deals too. Not just Franco, but Osisko and probably soon to be Mitsui.
If anyone ever need to know what a prat they are just check out their 10:15 am post…….
They obviously think a £600k portfolio in their 70s is something to boast about…….
I don’t think words can describe what a complete and tool they come across as……..
Orthen. nail on the head,
excellent post as always
Addicknt
Even more hilarious, if you believe the ramping 🤡 🤡 , is they are only commenting on your response as allegedly they have no idea what half the posters on this board write.
Warren Buffet, one of the most successful investors in the world would never advocate chasing their losses, which several of these posters seem to do on a weekly basis.
How ironic adikt, you, by your own admission . have stated your judgement of bbg was wrong, and you shouldn't of given him the benefit of the doubt..
your reward. he's turned on you.
so clearly your not a good judge..
all of which begs the question,
why should we trust your judgement when you extole the virtues of Caldwell.
SP in the 6s. and fdjyn and his mate bbg, top up.
Darren I rest my case.
So finally lets consider our won position as ordinary investor. And OK I understand that our holding at 2.2 million may be much more than most 'ordinary investors' can afford, but SOLG at pur average cost represents 35% of our total investments and I increased our holding by almost 30% on Tuesday.
I'm sure most investors on here are sensible. Occasionally we might get carried away by hype, or a tip we've read somewhere...and sometimes we get lucky with a multibagger, but others we sell and write off a significant loss.
I did this with EVR and POLY and several others over the last 40 years.
But we've also had big wins such as SOLG twice before and ATYM. Those gains are more than funding our commitment to SOLG now.
And believe me I am every bit as frustrated as you. But there is no point being angry, because I am responsible for my own decisions.
Every morning I wake up and check for the RNS that could be life changing.
Because I have been so bullish about Solgold since Scott and Sangha took over, I have been sucked in by such as the media articles. I believed the merger could and should have been completed quicker and that a quick takeover would happen early in 2023.
I was wrong.
And then Lasso announced his intention to step down. As you know I am a great believer in macro factors and although at first I had bought more, I slashed our holding to 200k because markets hate uncertainty. I've steadily rebuilt it since to a 10p average but that's still a 33% loss.
I believe very strongly in taking responsibility for my own decisions and, wher necessary, cutting and running.
But not here...and not now...when we are so close...
Markets especdially in the US are driven by FOMO...Fear of Missing Out...(I would add a variant...FOLO...Fear of Losing Out...)
So just reflect on what happened between mid June and late September 2022; mid September and late October 2023; and 20/27 December 2023.
Those three 'events' show me very clear lessons:
tbc
Terry, no other AIM / LSE co can boast assets of our significance and size. Manipulation is being used to force weak hands before news is released.
We have been here before and I have previously benefited from buying when the SP is very low.
All will be revealed soon
Wasn’t the previous PFS and mine plan remodelled by Keith Marshall and his crew, to try to make it more realistic and efficient?
I will be astonished if somehow, they missed the opportunity to mine the resource for less than half the cost.. like we have promised to now show in PFS 3.
They must have had the mining vision of Mr Magoo, if they couldn’t see the opportunities that Scott’s new boys may show, if they can release a credible, genuine method to extract for substantially less, that stands up to close scrutiny .. IF being the big word here.
There is another IF though… As in, what if Solgolds new PFS doesn’t clearly and unambiguously prove it can be mined for half the price? What if it disappoints.. what options are we left with?
The ore body is the ore body, and it is where it is, it’s not changed.. if after 3 PFS we can’t get any major to buy it or JV it with us, after they have each looked it over and kicked the tyres.. then what?
It’s just laughable to believe Solgold are capable of moving it forward profitably if all the experienced and proven miners walked away for reasons we will never know..
AROK I'm in absolutely no doubt that the SP is being managed. I can't remember ever seeing even an AIM share with such a vast proportion of AT trades and SOLG has a full listing. And every time there is weakness it is pushed down unless PIs buy shares...e.g. on Tuesday...7.10 to 7.92...
Good lord a reasonably sensible and realistic couple of posts from Red.