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Quady - just to pick you up on this comment,
"Problem with that is everyone knows what their shares are worth and no one will sell out cheap."
If that were true we wouldn't have a share price that is averse to spending any significant length of time in the 30s.
The fact that this is continually seek support in the mid-high 20s suggests that people think it's worth that much. There is an imbalance when the share price goes higher (with sellers taking control) and it's only 25/26 when the buyers come back in.
In my opinion, BHP know they don't need to act in the market until someone else does. In the meantime they can use their shareholding and influence to lobby management and ultimately remove some of them at AGM time, and that will happen again in December.
I at least appreciate why SeanHunter is exasporated. He knows that the more BHP turn the screw in the background the more detriment there is to the SOLG story, and the more risk to our investments.
If that report of the Chinese govt is true I think that BHP will find themselves out voted when a bid comes in from the East.
The Chinese intend to dominate the commodities sector as they know what you pay is irrelevant when you own so much that you dictate the price. That's their intention in the long run, the East is slowly taking over and the West cannot stop it using their existing methods. Whilst BHP et al fanny about playing games the Chinese will just take it from under their noses. The available resources on this planet aren't keeping up with demand, we will be buying copper from the Chinese at a price THEY dictate as we will have no choice. A strong bid will look cheap with time..
You and your diverse book, Quady. It's such utter tosh...as you will eventually discover.
Quady - the issue with what you're saying is that you're trotting the same line out from the company. All the while the company has provided zero, absolutely nish, to the market by means of an update on the conditional financing package.
Saying, "Ayten and Ingo are working on it" is simply not enough. We want to know what discussions they've had and with whom. We want to know which third parties they've engaged (if any), we want to know what the complete package will look like insofar as the various components - debt, equity, streams etc.
Given the glaring lack of detail SOLG have provided on their efforts to finance Alpala to date, I don't believe you can literally refer to a comment made 6/12/18 months ago. How long can you refer to such comments before they expire? As i said last week, the general health of world markets has changed and this impacts the availability of finance on good terms.
In my view, we're now at the stage where we believe SOLG can finance it when they go and finance it. They no longer have that credit in the bank.
For me the biggest risk is we don’t turn into another SXX. Cash is king and at present the market can’t see where the cash is coming from. Majors work underhandedly to take what the want. Unfortunately PIs are at the bottom of the packing order are one difference is somewhat distributed interests of shareholders however even that can change over time. I honestly can’t see more than a 60p buyout so hand tried to be realistic with expectations. GLA. Although for balance I did read an article last week about RIO and Barrick now showing more if an interest in Equador.
So seanhunter you know better than the BOD.
I will take the word of the people in the know who understand what we have and how this can be funded with minimal dilution.
Remember two years ago we announced we had a billion in hand when Alpala's build was 4.3 billion over a longer period.
Today we are in a far better position in terms of fund raising and I suspect that dilution would be even less today.
Listen to the company not the so called experts on here.
Recipe for disaster Quady. Wipeout for current holders because believe me dilution will be the centrepiece of those silly plans. Let's hope a bid is incoming- the recent rise against an abysmal backdrop has given me some hope again - and that the current plans for giung into production are just for show like the mindless quacking of ducks, because they are insane.
Good morning Killjoy I have covered this subject extensively.
In order for a bid to succeed the diverse book must become less diverse.
So BHP or another party needs to acquire blocks of shares.
Problem with that is everyone knows what their shares are worth and no one will sell out cheap.
So this is why we have had no bid up till now.
Lets add we have had no trouble raising funds and whatever some believe on here Solgold can raise the funds to build Alpala with minimal dilution. (the company's words not mine )
Some armchair CEO's think they know better than Solgold ( they don't )
So unless the book changes significantly we get no bid and we continue to production. ( again the company's words not mine ).
If you assume NCM and BHP are not holding 13%+ each of SOLG for the future dividends and are instead holding these stakes as a foot in the door then logic would suggest that they want the assets or a slice of them. On that basis anything that happens to the asset worth (directly) is likely to get them upset. That was proven by the Franco deal. The 1% royalty (there is a 0.5% buying back option) is a slice of the cake gone. I don't think BHP or NCM give a flying avocado what happens to SOLG's private investors or the equities shares etc apart from a 'control ownership' point of view. Dilution means nothing to them as they are always going to sustain their position and the cheaper the better. So in answer to your question, ask yourself this.... how do SOLG raise funds to deliver DFS and the early mine shaft work? What happens if they go with another Franco deal for 1% royalty but via Boliden? $100m raised without dilution is a great deal for bulk of SOLG shareholders and a poor deal for BHP and co. I couldn't give a t055 if we gave away 2% royalty on Alpala. Why? Because we most certainly won't own the asset by the time we get past DFS. Why take some dilutive pain now when the likes of BHP are going to get the full cake (an assumption or example for argument sake).
So in short... SOLG will need to raise funds and anything that they do which involves the 'asset' or royalties etc will kick off a bid imho as Majors don't like to see the cake getting eaten into by streamers or smelters.
The only half way house I can see is an IPO of Alpala on North American markets. That could raise funds and still allow BHP and NCM to gain a slice of the asset but not a controlling one. It could also involve other parties with Fortescue or Gina and co getting a decent slice. That IPO business could then be traded over several times and the fight for ownership takes place there. SOLG would of course retain a sizeable interest in the IPO. The value of the listed business would feedback into SOLG's main LSE listing.
The new CFO has a proven track record and getting large billion dollar IPO's away. Just imagine if ENSA was IPO'd with value of $3bln? Why not?
Rather than keep going round and round about who may or may not bid, do we have any consensus on what will trigger a bid?
Apologies. I see some other alert person has got in before me!!
Cheers Ned
Posted by Bally22
https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/metal-stocks-rally-as-china-considers-220-billion-stimulus-plan-122070800009_1.html
Have a good weekend. Ned
If the Chinese made a bid then it would be game over for BHP. The asset and folio would be gone. They got spanked by Wyloo (twiggy) and whilst Fortesque are no small fry player, the Chinese megalith would step on BHP and wipe them off on the curb. What some investors fail to see is the tightening on regional pro business mining opportunities. Russia and surrounding areas gone. Majority of South American.. gone or impractical / uneconomic due to huge lefty taxes.
In terms of BHP's future and major entry into 'copper'... where else can they go? Where else on the globe offers such a great opportunity. Barrick and Rio recently signing deals or about to with Lasso and as we know... getting new licences in Ecuador is not easy due to indigenous / green warriors.
100p a sharer for SOLG is peanuts. Not far off $3bln, but the opportunities in that folio almost guarantees that paid back within 5 years. That leaves 45 years+ of very economic profits and easy reinvestment.
Chinese already big in Ecuador and more than ready to build Alpala's export pipeline.
Patience required. Not much longer to go.
Jeezoo they know they need it
If the Chinese made a bid it would put the willies up BHP for sure.
Yes Bubble, your £1.32 prediction is still a realistic price despite the best, but doomed endeavours of our deramping deviants.
Bally excellent news
cheers Bally22.
If confirmed & when the next RNS lands we are back up to 35-40p, then a brief stop @ 55p on the road to £1.32 =-).
Resident deramper still posting I see
Have a great weekend all, and if you're on a break enjoy.
See you Monday.
:)
Wow big late buys there onwards and upwards solgers gla
Bob did you write this 3 weeks ago?
"“Joint BHP-Newcrest bid for SolGold 'within months”15 Jun 2022 08:15
Well I hope it’s worth the wait for the update on Porvenir. Hopefully good news is coming.
It doesn’t worry me if no bid appears this month. I’ll like to see FMG accumulate some shares in Solgold, to put the ****s up BHP.
END
Next we'll have Sean ranting and raving bout the share price rising 10% in last 2 days. It's juts not cricket is it!
Grumble when it drifts down and grumble when it zooms up. You couldn't make it up. SOLG BoD's must laughing their heads off.
"... the puppeteer of SolGold..."
Come on Bob, what does that even mean?
Nick was CEO for a long period which covered some pretty serious share price ascendancy as it happens. This is important to us all of course, but I don't base all my decisions off it in isolation.
I think we have to look at the current position for what it is. Nick is on the board and therefore should have an influence in certain board decisions. How fair it is to call him a puppeteer though on the basis that people he employed take his counsel (to some extent) I'm less sure.
We now have a CEO and a new CFO. Both in position. It's about time, in my view at least that we disassociate Nick Mather as being in control of SolGold's destiny.
It's not unfeasible that Nick is one of the board members not re-elected In December yet we don't see a bid of suitable JV approach in 2023. How do we reconcile that Bob?
Ridiculous is that you think Nick Mather is only a non-executive director, he is the puppeteer of Solgold and has been calling the shots from day one. I’m here only for a ascending share price. Why are you here? Cut the sh it and do the maths. Nick has done a lot of good work and some self-righteous moves. I don’t want to see another SXX. Moving this on this year will be a great thing for the sustainably of the Ecuadorian people. Sell the Alpala concession and keep the regional projects works for me. 4 subsidiaries must be worth something. It’s called business.