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Worth a watch..
This asset could more than double, energy crisis …: https://youtu.be/mBRvq16P9Ek
Worth a watch...
https://www.kitco.com/news/
SharketMare read the whole post and don't take it out of context.
Ah wait a minute I see the problem, that's what you always do.
SM, yep, agree with all of that.
addicknt, you said in an earlier post something along the lines of "this time it feels different". I/you/we all have said this for at least the last two years as we headed in to the AGM. This year the difference, for me at least, is two-fold.
1) the funding situation, which is unprecedented since I've been invested here
2) the silence from major shareholders who are set to either win or lose big here despite the decimation of the share price
If I genuinely thought the company was just planning on releasing the PEA and revised PFS and continuing BAU into next year I'd be 1) f*cking livid at the mismanagement this year and 2) looking for a swift exit
Thankfully it's now pretty clear something is brewing and we at long last will have one of NM's "exit points" presented to us before long.
"So as I said don't get Hung up about shareholder value as that is not in Solgolds hands or Indeed anyone elses."
Comedy gold, second only to "the share price is doesn't matter" from this 'seasoned investor'.
in this ERA of ESGs, it makes sense for BHP to announce operations in Ecuador through an entity which is doing ok on this side. Problem is, what are the risks for PIs for a deal that kills competition for the assets? is BHM and NM co JV a plausible situation? what are the risks?
So heres a left field idea...
In July 2020 "Australia's Newcrest Mining Ltd NCM.AX has hired investment bank RBC Capital Markets to explore options for its 13.57% stake in gold and copper producer SolGold..."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-solgold-m-a-newcrest-idUSKBN2482A6
This was immediately following the FNV deal, public criticism of Solgold and withdrawing Craig Jones from the Board...it was also only 3 months before the brakes came off BHPs stake in SOLG...
Eventually they decided to keep their stake as a 'strategic investment...'
In September 2020 an obscure German finance journal published the following article...
https://news.financial/comments/bhp-group-newcrest-mining-solgold-getting-bogged-down-or-putting-all-your-eggs-in-one-basket
Including these quotes:
"It is possible that, as in the past, acquisitions will help BHP to get off to a good start...."
and
"When it comes to mergers and acquisitions, the name Newcrest Mining is always mentioned in the resource industry. ..."
and
"Although the shares of the established companies offer stability and indirectly also a participation in the success of SolGold, speculative investors may well be interested in the emerging company."
In August 2022 Newcrest withdrew from a Cornerstone project...
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/newcrest-withdraws-option-farm-agreement-114500732.html
That was only two days after it had decided not to increase its exposure to Havieron...
https://www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au/2022/08/19/newcrest-says-no-to-extra-havieron-stake/
Read on for my theory in part 2...
Red … agree
Addinct yes I accept your point , especially when it comes to raising funds.
The talk amoungst miners is that the M&A season is about to really kick off so hopefully it's time to fasten the seat belts, I'm back in yesterday:-)
DBW, yes, possibly, but I assume you accept my argument about the start point? It's far easier to negotiate from a position of strength, but we are not currently in that position.
We all have our own views about an exit valuation and I'm sure none of us are happy with where we are now. I don't want someone to nick this whilst we're at a bargain basement value.
precisely... and just for the record, I don't think Noront would have gone for more than 110cents had their share price been 70 cents when the first offer came in. The fact it was 23 cents when BHP made the 55 cent offer just shows how 'asleep' at the wheel the market was.
A rumour in a newspaper over the weekend on a bid approach whisper could see SOLG back into the 30's before a bid even materialises.
Sorry...forgot the link to the Mergermarket article...
https://info.mergermarket.com/solgold-go-it-alone-strategy-debated-ahead-october-showdown-shareholders-bankers/
Add …. You could look at it another way. Our current low market value may be the spark that was needed to kick the process off
Sadly, it's the market which dictates the value of your shareholding. So you can whine as much as you wish about its inefficiencies, but it doesn't change the facts.
I'm here for the same reason as you and, like you, believe some form of corporate action is in the offing. My gripe is that our board has put itself in a bind, in as much as the start point for any negotiation is now much lower than it was.
Remember this article from 2020. after the FNV deal..?
"The capital raise was a bit strange...but seems to have had the effect of putting management in a stronger position....
SolGold is right for consolidation...so it must either be sold or build the Cascabel project itself, but it is difficult to see how current management can do that on its own. There is a lot of value in Solgold’s assets and a sale of the company would be desirable....
It may be the tactic is to attract an offer, and that COVID-19 might have slowed down a potential sale, but given that management own a large stake in the business it may also be focusing on developing the company itself...
“You don’t want to get stuck in this asset, you want movement on an offer or on the Cascabel project, which has massive potential,” Neuhauser said.
BHP is most likely interested in owning Cascabel given that so very few assets of this size are available in the world, (Brooke) Macdonald said. “It is a monster.”
“With copper prices on the up, and gold going gangbusters, I think someone will make a move towards end of the year,” Macdonald said. “We want to launch a strategic review and sale process in order to open up the data room to a wider universe of companies and get competitive tension to maximise value for shareholders.”
The sale process could be structured in such a way as to allow third parties to competitively bid, given the concentrated ownership, and that would support a friendly deal and encourage success, he said."
Maybe this is the scenario playing out 2 years late...
Strategic review (share price up sharply)...data room (come and buy us...)
Whatever, as the Colonel has implied..."Summats Up!"...
The market? Is this the same market that priced Oz minerals at $4bln and then BHP likely last offer will be $10bln? Is this same market that priced noront at 23 cents and wyloo some months later (with no major noront catalyst news etc) bought it for 110 cents? Is this the same market that drove SOLG down to 11p when a flu bug on steroids swept across the world? The market will adjust to what it is told. These days it 'follows'. In the old days it used to be designed as a forward thinker and prices would be advanced. It's a casino and the house always reduces the odds when they think punters need to come back to the casino bank for cash. To beat the market, you have to be ahead of it.
Agree again
Nick has 300m reasons not to let this go. Same reason probably JV talks have borne no fruit … it reduces T/O premium.
Fort, I absolutely agree with you that NM will not be taking this lying down, but as it stands, the market is only interested in hard facts.
Addicknt where I think we disagree is even with a fund raise, the share price may not move much.
This is about the wider market, so as I said I am quite relaxed.
I don't think Solgold expected Putin to invade the Ukraine, and so we have a falling share price.
Not ideal I agree, but we are where we are.
Let's see what happens.
addicknt
You still seem to be missing the point. Yes... were very exposed aren't we?? There's no way Mather would allow this to happen unless it suits another agenda. When have SOLG ever (EVER) allowed them to be exposed? At when we near the all important stage... why NOW of all times would Mather just sit back and keel over without a fight?
I said a long time ago that BHP's foot in the door allowed them to have intimate discussions with SOLG that a non major major could not have. By this I mean, they could find a way to agree a stronger foothold with SOLG and avoid any fears of a counter bid or hostile approach from Rio, Codelco, Anglo, FMG and so on. By running down the clock... SOLG are forcing BHP to the table... not the other way around. As I have no doubt that SOLG have an alternative lined up. Mather would not play it any other way. So the clock is ticking and SOLG 'look' exposed but in reality they have highly likely got funding all sorted and ready and waiting. What they don't want is BHP to counter that with a typical bid rns that says... we are offering shareholders a better option blah blah blah
If SOLG drop some big partner or funding news with just 21 days to the AGM (I think that's the min notice period) then BHP will struggle to get an alternative out there before the VOTE.
There's no way Mather is sleep walking into a zero cash pile and easy takeover. He's been planning and waiting for this moment for over 10 years+.
Exposed?? Exposed my @rse!
Fort I’d agree but I’d say the next 4-6 weeks …. Voting likely to be open in circa 6 weeks .
Lunch …. Good post
Agree that Colonel...so is the plan for the current management to run the Ecuador division of BHP...?
Here we go...could it be time to fasten the seat belts??..