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So. We all know it was back at the beginning of August that Dr. Castro mentioned in interview the Phase 2 trial of ACTIV2 SNG001 had completed. This is over two months ago now.
What are your thoughts on when the RNS will come that we are either through to Phase 3 ACTIV2, or we are dropped out of the trial?
I made another top up today, at 150, just £5k as I thought it is remarkably dull for a Friday, given that ACTIV2 news could arrive on Monday.
I’m sure when Monday comes, there will be zero news (I’m getting used to this now with Synairgen), all other pharma stocks seem to get news, this one doesn’t. However I still believe that the ACTIV2 news should come some time within the next three weeks.
Surely it can’t take the US government NIH statisticians and scientists three months to go through data from 120 people.
When do you think the news will come in?
For myself, I believe any time within the next 8 trading sessions. Any sector other than healthcare I'd say next week for sure, but healthcare stocks are akin to running a marathon in treacle.
I'm not sure, however, whether official news will emanate from the US first, with an RNS the following morning, or if they will allow us to break it first. I could check the Sequence of events with previous graduates, but it's irrelevant to me as I'm holding anyway.
So, up to 8 trading sessions and positive.
NdN71, my bad, 220, thanks.
We have discussed it. Yet here we are, with no results.
It’s only a simple question to see when other people believe the RNS with some results (or just if we have moved to P3 or not) will come through.
I’m interested in peoples thoughts.
It wasn’t the start of august Andy.
Dr Castro let it slip on 17th august!
Apologies, 19th August !
The one thing I’ve noticed about this message board is that when you get a simple question, like ‘when does your instinct tell you the ACTIV2 news will come through’, people can’t just answer the question, instead they attack the poster.
Does it matter if it was the first week or second week of august. That’s over eight weeks. When Castro said that the trial had finished on the 19th, how do you know it finished exactly on that day? It could’ve finished a week before. You don’t know, you only know that he said it had finished some time BEFORE 19th August, he didn’t say a date.
Regarding Activ ph 3 trial, it may be that the trial sponsors could just he waiting for Recovery phase trial results and use them for any possible EUA. If recovery trial phase 3 shows great effect in recovery, why wait for another ph 3 trial with all the expense and further delay.
Bigjohnny all you have to do is book me 5 table's at your pub on the river Wandle
The booking date will early next year., The minute it hits £10 the drinks will be on me.
I think we are going to have avalanche of news and a takeover offer all within the next 4 months.
GLA
Come on Andybe4, you know you can’t post anything with even the merest hint of negativity in there, without being shot down!
I had last week as the week, maybe this coming Monday. But looks like I was wrong. Either way, it can’t be long… we are surely down to days.
If you want predictions Andy, mine is that by the time I’m skiing (22/2/22) we will have A3 and P3 completion news and will be applying for EUA. £6.50 per share at this point!
AIMO of course and I don’t usually predict, as it’s just an educated guess.
If we get EUA, which according to RM is a rapid process, the SP will very quickly surge upwards. My guess is by April £12 per share.
Is that similar to your thoughts?
I’ll be happy with £12. That would be mortgage gone and a very nice car on the drive! Although in reality I’d likely just reinvest it and try to retire earlier!
Yeah Doc, we aren’t allowed to be realists on here.
Even RM obviously felt bad for the long term investors, hence his shout out the other day.
I hope it’s within days, that’ll do nicely.
I was thinking this Monday or next Monday.
We sometimes do a ‘guess the SP at the end of the day’, we should do one for guessing the day we think the news will finally come through.
That’s pretty similar to my thoughts Kevin.
I was thinking ACTIV2 (good) news end of October, possible start of November. SP hopefully goes to 250/300.
Then I’m not sure whether it will hover around that price, due to a lot of risk being mitigated by the ACTIV2 result showing that yet again it works (providing it does pass Phase 2). Or if these day time traders will try to sink the price down further to around 180/190.
I would imagine SP creeps up again on RNS that last patient in SPRINTER has been dosed. I’d say 1st December for that RNS.
Results for SPRINTER exactly when you said, late February and announcement for EUA application v soon after.
I’d also agree SP around £12, I’d say £10-£14. But I’m going to hold still because I think at this point we will get rumours and news of a takeover bid, I see SP going as high as £20. I’m thinking around 04/22.
(How’s that for a bullish post, £20 SP by coming April, my posts are not always negative.)
Bigjonny, do you mean SPRINTER phase 3 trial (instead of recovery)?
That’s a good point. I hadn’t thought of.
If the NIH simply say that SNG001 met the efficacy and safety requirement to progress to Phase 3, however instead of doing that, we are going to use their SPRINTER trial instead because it’s finishing a lot sooner.
Guessing the SP is okay as a bit of fun. It is also good to dream about what could be, although with any investment, it is rarely that simple.
We know it puts fires out, but other factors to take into consideration before approval is granted and SP really takes off.
I’m still very wary to think I could potentially be retired by the summer of 2022. I’m lucky as I don’t have a mortgage and still in very late 40’s, but the thought of having a choice whether I work on a particular day is very exciting. SP to £15 by summer of 2022, would be amazing. House project finished, £0 debts and enough to retire at 50.
Top up in another week when payday arrives for me. Going against eggs in one basket principle, but…..
Kev. I think you might just get your early retirement.
I’m over exposed on this too. Synairgen is slightly over half my portfolio now.
But like you, I am very bullish at the prospects of the drug. It’s very odd, the SP of Synairgen doesn’t appear to behave like the other small biotech covid stocks. As soon as they release any news, be it an indication of safety or ability to ramp up production, their SP goes up 60% in one day. We have nothing like that from Synairgen. It’s clear that the company is going to be filing for EUA straight after SPRINTER, RM said so and they’ve also hired a CRO with 30 years experience. You’d presume that the SP might nudge slightly higher with the promising new job position being filled, it shows the company moving in the right direction. But nope, SP stays the same.
As RM said, ‘we have to assume that data is going to be’ really good so have to put the chess pieces into place.
I’m not assuming that we are going to get full approval, but am very hopefully.
If you check the SP on July 2020, it went from 36p to £2.46 in the space of 2 weeks, following amazing P2 data. Of course, this was peer reviewed in the lancet later.
That is ridiculous!
Working out the % gain, if we get similar from the same positive P3 data, that would be marvellous. Again, I’m only stating the facts of what happened and I’m not predicting that this will happen again, although it will be nice.
I'm assuming that the data will be really good, and whilst it may not result in the same percentage gain to the SP as the P2 results, I believe that getting approval and EUA is as inevitable as a takeover ultimately - then again, I'm very bullish on SNG purely because it's still the supposedly most efficacious treatment out there to date, and P3 will confirm that.
I still think £5-10 is easily achieveable by the endgame, at least, my target price is in that range.
Have a good weekend all.
According to business insider article, it is not uncommon for biotech firms to rocket up to 700% upon news of a great phase 3 trial result.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/seres-therapeutics-stock-price-positive-phase-3-trial-data-biotech-2020-8
This was from August last year.
So I believe that providing the data is spot on, then we will see a replication of July 2020. Perhaps even larger amount.
Given the multi utility purposes of SNG001 Interferon beta in the long run, this stock get its £9.90 to £50 target SP.
Providing it works, I honestly feel £5 to £10 is minimum price of this. I think it could hit £7 to £9 within the first week of a positive phase 3 read out.
By the looks of it, Seres Therapeutics went from $3.74 to around $37. I’d be very pleased if SNG went to £15! However, I also notice Seres have crashed all the way back down to $6.
When you get these dramatic rises, they typically then fall back quite sharply from their peak. Timing the exit perfectly will no doubt be very difficult.
Perhaps only the chartists will have any hope of timing the exit well, the rest of us are relying on pure luck; at least I will be. In my pre-chart days.
re seres
thanks for the reminder. i meant to buy some seres. its on my list of pharma-disaster-recovery stocks, alongside polyphor.
nothing to do with syn. sorry. but would be happy to hear of any other pharma recovery recommendations. perhaps valneva worth a punt.
good weekend all.
The values that some are putting on this share seem to be very low...this could potentially be one of the most important drugs to come on to the market.
The likelyhood that Covid 19 will be followed by various varients and other infections like nipah virus etc and it's ability to help with asthma and COPD and the fact it can be stockpiled for years
means that we shouln't be giving this away.
Simply WallSt are giving it a fair value of £812,,,,Now you're talking :-)
Like any stock
When they double… sell half and run the rest. Have your out price in your head. Don’t get greedy. Save some for the next man!
I think Activ 2 p3 gets us to £1.85 to £2
Then the customary retrace to £1.70
Only other cheaper better drugs drag us down until Sprinter p3 results.
If they are ‘good’ we are £3.50
Great we are £5
Unbelievable… we are bought at 2-3 billion with potential for 4 if we are manufacturing well already
That’s my read
No Activ 2 P3 we are 80p retracing to 65p whilst people accept there is nothing worth hanging around for until Sprinter p3 results.
Then it’s P3 or bust
Good luck all
£812 per share?! Maybe £81.2… they must have a decimal in the wrong place :D
Just trying to do the math. That would give a market cap of £160bn?!