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Morning everyone. A lot of cra@p appearing on this board. I guess it'll only get worse the closer we get to results. Thanks to all the sane contributors for keeping us informed throughout this journey. Even Nolupus for keeping me right :p
I've been trying to look at some projections for covid supplies in the event the drug is in demand post results. So SNG stated that they are looking into the supply chain to be in a position to supply millions of doses by the end of year (if results are good). Please correct me if i'm wrong here but each course is 14 days with 1 dose a day meaning that 1 million doses will only actually treat approx 70k patients. With rates on the rise in the Americas and the USA nearing 60k new cases a day alone, i think it's fair to say that 1 million (or several m) doses may not be enough.
Remdesivir (sorry i keep mentioning it but it's really the only pricing comparison I can see that we have in this current climate?), are charging c.$350 dollars a vial to developed countries and they think that's on the cheap! If we were to conservatively price SNG001 at £200 a dose then would that start to give us an idea of the kind of revenue this would be worth (to SNG or any licencees) if given an approval?
Results due soon - i'm holding! strong buy at this price too IMHO
Thanks to the poster for this link highlighting the IFN response in severe covid patients:
https://www.genengnews.com/news/interferon-plays-pivotal-inflammatory-role-in-severe-covid-19-cases/
I think the cost would be comparable to other interferon beta formulations
https://bnf.nice.org.uk/medicinal-forms/interferon-beta.html
I will be much higher price in the US.
Thanks Deal3r, i never seen that link before. It seems I was being very conservative!
The earliest date, I'm expecting the hospital trial results is tomorrow, they could come anytime from then on. IMO
I read the tea leaves this morning they are saying next Wednesday for hospital results.:)
They are also predicting a Punit/Eva wedding in 2021. Going to name their first child Nolupus. Now theirs a prediction for you :)
I'm basing it on the Evgen Pharma SAH/stroke victims double blind P2 trial at Southampton, it was a larger dataset with more participants and the results were in 3weeks of the last participant's data collected. Tomorrow this trial should be close to 4weeks of the last participant's data collected.
I make it 3 weeks bebeto but lets not split hairs!
Haha well we can agree when the last participant was recruited and work from there.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SNG/recruitment-of-patients-in-sg016-trial-completed-73wb4p38j7w1jqs.html
yea, a 2 week dosing period followed by a 2 week follow up period.
3-4 weeks to analyse results. 3 weeks are up tomorrow.
Please correct me if im wrong!
I was calculating a one week follow up, due to the secondary endpoint being reached on the 3rd week, as it's the 3rd week of infection that people go onto a ventilator.
"You will take a dose of trial medication once a day for 14 days."
"Two weeks after your final treatment dose, you will have your final video call with a trial doctor or nurse"
No point splitting hairs. News could realistically be coming at any moment now. Whether COPD or COVID.
Ah yes that's the home trial, I'm talking about the hospital part of the trial results
Secondary end point(s)
Progression to pneumonia as diagnosed by chest x-ray, if no pneumonia is present
at time of enrolment
b. Evolution of pneumonia, as diagnosed by chest x-ray, if pneumonia is present at
time of enrolment
c. Time to clinical resolution =4 of 5 vital signs (temperature, O2 sats, Resp
rate, heart rate, systolic blood pressure).
d. LRT Symptoms (Changes in daily symptoms breathlessness, cough and sputum scale
(BCSS) symptoms score during the study period (including disaggregated scores))
e. Virus clearance/load
f. Safety and tolerability
g. Blood and sputum biomarkers if samples are available
I'm not expecting the home trial results until August/September
Yes agreed. Its looking like september now for that, Even if they announced the completion today, 7 weeks from now puts us into september
Seb46 - "Doesn’t anyone learn to stop the predictions .... I’ll wait for the facts to materialise ...."
Oh if only you followed your own advice.
Good morning all. Apologies for my lack of input of late, but I decided to keep clear of the negative chatter chatter or I would have embarrassed myself rising to the Bait.
I thought I would mention that I have just heard Professor Steven Holgate on our local southcoast radio "wave 105" making a short statement of how pulmonary disease is on the increase ( sorry no link ). What a thought that SNG could have its moment after 14 years in the making ! .....my circa 100k of shares is holding strong !!! I've waited this long a few more weeks / months won't hurt .GLA.....ps gutted I never made the table yesterday ;-)
For the hospital trial , the participants would have had to have been , firstly ill enough to be admitted to hospital and would be further along in the infection timeline, that's why I only gave them one week after the two weeks dosage period.
Great to hear from you Goose you’ve missed nothing of value on the board of late except for a few new papers which all show favourable results for type 1 IFN’s.
“Long and Strong” I’m sure we could make up a ****tail with that name. If this hits it big time I’ll commission a limited run of SynairGin, from the local distillery.
Hey Goose good to hear you’re ok.
With 14 trading days left in July, we won’t have long to wait ;-)
I do hope you are correct.
I would have thought that the 3-4 week period for the analysis would have been closer to the 3 week end not the 4 week end given the situation. I would have thought that they would be working around the clock here because of the importance of this, maybe not.
Ghia put me down for 10 bottles. I assume it will be the finest of the Gins?!
Goose if you go quiet then you only have yourself to blame not being on the leaderboard. It takes dedication and persistence. Ramping is not for the faint hearted. Just ask Sharesting's wife what he has sacrificed to get there. Posting whilst out at meals, whilst on the toilet, even whilst he's servicing his ... anyway back to SYN!
seb - its nice to see blue though, you must agree on that?!