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Why the rise today?
I thought that the conference call was very bullish. The company is clearly still set on a growth strategy. Nothing in the Q&A to indicate that there are any problems (beyond the current cyber issue at Funky pigeon) .
Not sure why the results caused the drop. Either more was expected or people had not listened to previous presentation where the company explained about the planned higher cap ex. Hopefully we may see some upgrades from the brokers now that there is more visibility to to recovery in revenue.
Providing covid does not rear its head in any meaningful way next winter, then going forward smwh looks to have the potential to be a very good investment.
I thought the results were OK. Very volatile price so far, it went 10% up and is now 3.5% down! it will be interesting to see how it settles after the conference call at 9.00.
Price falling so bought another £4k.
Great results re rate here today I hope.
Hopefully the cyber breach will not prove to be a major problem.
Also reassuringly within the rns -
'The Group will report its results for the half year to 28 February 2022 on 27 April 2022 and confirms that they are comfortably in line with Company compiled consensus'
Bloomberg's Pret index now has sales at UK airports, stations and suburban areas back to pre covid levels (based to Jan 2020). In the past this has, in some areas, been higher than the sales that were subsequently seen in Smiths results. Smiths results for airports was closer to that seen for the number of Flights. UK flights are now about 20% below their 2019 levels (compared to a comparable date) and normalising rapidly. TSA data for the US has footfall at 90%+ of that in 2019 Vegas has also been returning to higher level of visitors. Even below these levels the company was showing decent revenue's and profit in the US. Todays good results from Moonpig should be mirrored by returns from Funky Pigeon. Hospitals channels should also have resumed normalised levels of trade.
Things will have dipped a bit after their last update in January but should have bounced back quite strongly since. I think that the outlook in the Interim results at the end of April is going to be very positive.
I made a mistake above, in addition to the two debt issues - they did dilute in April 2020 by nearly 14% .
However, at the start of 2020 their results had not had time any time to show a contribution from their $400M takeover Marshall Retail which almost doubled the size of their international travel business (in retrospect not the best timing!).
Even with the bad weather in the US TSA data indicates that US airport footfall is now back to 85% pre-covid levels and so is close to the level before Omicron where their revenues has significantly increased and they were trading profitably.
European flights are still about 30% down but are recovering well from the lows in January. Gatwick plans on opening their South terminal next month. Tourist travel through the ports/tunnel is starting to pick up as well.
The 'Pret Index' indicates that London stations and airports are pretty much back to pre-Omicron levels and look set to increase rapidly towards Easter. With highstreets and hospitals also returning to normal SMWH should be well placed going forward. It will be interesting to see what their revenue/profits are in a couple of years as it is quite a different business than it was pre-covid.
A good update which should see a steady rise in the sp.
It is surprising how many people just think of SMWH as just a UK High Street and train station/airport retailer. Most forget about road service stations, hospitals and the overseas outlets especially those in the US including those in Vegas.
The TSA numbers show that after the Christmas disruption US airport footfall is starting to pick up again. Although Omicron disrupted CES, Vegas is gearing up for the next batch of Exhibitions. European flights are at their lowest for over a year but with Omicron waning in the UK and changes to testing this situation will reverse quickly.
Work form home is being dropped so train stations will pick up again, hospitals are going to be busy for years catching up the backlog.
The company had expanded a lot in the US just prior to Covid so the benefits of this has still to be fully recognised in the (historical) revenues. They did not dilute and although they did take on more debt it is not unreasonable to see the sp returning to historical highs over the next couple of years.
Helen. am expecting we will rise 10% as a consequence of todays news and the lifting of restrictions. Will keep adding.
How are you all feeling about the share price after today's results? I'm thinking we could see a good rise this year as travel ticks upwards.
It's a shame- it had been looking good with US airport footfall back to 90% pre-covid levels (up 10-15% from the summer), things looking good in the UK with increased footfall in stations and hospitals nearing normal, UK flights were still only at 66% pre-covid but this is still better than in the summer.
Aside from the direct impact of flight cancellations to red zone countries it will certainly mean that people are more wary about going on, or booking holidays in the short term. Hopefully the past couple of months revenues and a reasonable Christmas run in for the High Street (hard to see this being disrupted) will give them a bit a cash in hand to carry them through until things become clearer.
I can't imagine as many people booking their holidays with such uncertainty about the new variant. Hardly 'bedwetting'!
Nothing 'gone wrong' with this investment - it's a sea of red out there today with the FTSE down 3% FTSE 250 down 2.25% etc
Normal jitters around new Covid variant probably amongst the main drivers of bedwetting!
Solid company and true value will return soon
IMO LOR
Having bought 24/11 at £15.18, at what I thought was a bargain price for a company of this quality and record, blow me down this morning the price is sudden off at £13.50. I bought at £13.83, another 500. Let's see...
But does anyone have an explanation? Things were going so well.
Just surprised they haven't looked at picking up Card factory at a bargain price. Would be a good purchase & lots of opportunities.
A good presentation, lots of potential for further expansion in the US. Increasing numbers flying from UK airports, coupled to their expansion into tech offerings with Inmotion at these sites, should start to see revenues increase from this, their hardest hit, segment.
It seems to have gone down well with II's as there has been a steady increase in the sp since the results.
Well you had a brief moment to get in for that this morning. Great opportunity to top up before it bounced back 200p
I would be getting caught on this one I would £15 would be a great buying opportunity
watch out and don't get caught out
Wait
Having their backing has done wonders for the sp since the w/e!
You are probably right with that analysis.
If it is at the lower end then it looks like it will be near to 1/3 of 2019 earnings per share compared to the 1/2 that was the previous consensus .
I am sticking with it as I have always liked Smiths, they used to run with low debt until they bought In Motion- rather unfortunate timing. They have a good management team and have been good at finding new marketing opportunities (such as housing PO's in their high-street stores), the airlines in the US still seem busy and airports here are now picking up which will help what was their weakest sector in the last quarter.
I think the problem here is delayed recovery in travel and therefore investors chasing better prospects elsewhere, only a hold for me unless another 5% comes off the price
Mixed - slightly better this year but warning profit may be at lower end next because of the charges from the debt.
As a proxy, the TSA index looks to slightly underestimate their revenues and the Pret index to slightly overestimate , especially air transport - this could be because the Pret is Indexing to Jan 2020 rather than a comparable month - or Pret is just doing better than Smiths....
Net cash is up by £12M since the end of June so it looks like they have moved back into profit. Given it is trading well below its pre covid price there is plenty of scope for it to rerate 50% over the next couple of years as revenues recover. Not sure that this will be today though!